China-Singapore Jingwei Client, March 13 (Zhang Shunan) The CPI (Consumer Price Index) of 31 provinces was announced in February.

China-Singapore Jingwei reporter noted that 13 provinces recorded positive growth, Jiangxi and Qinghai were flat year-on-year; Hubei and Chongqing saw the largest declines, down 1.8% year-on-year.

Negative CPI growth in 16 provinces

　　In February, the national CPI fell by 0.2% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI rose by 0.6%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

　　A reporter from China-Singapore Jingwei found that 13 provinces including Shanxi, Shanghai, Liaoning, Jiangsu, and Henan recorded positive growth in CPI, while Jiangxi and Qinghai were flat year-on-year, and 16 provinces including Beijing, Tianjin, Anhui and Fujian had negative growth.

　　What needs to be mentioned is that among the 13 positive growth provinces, the CPI of Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shanghai, and Shandong turned "positive" in February, up 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively year-on-year.

In January this year, the CPI of the above-mentioned four provinces fell by 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively year-on-year.

　　In addition, from September 2020 to January 2021, Yunnan's CPI fell for five consecutive years.

In February this year, the year-on-year decrease in the province’s CPI was the same as that recorded in January.

　　In February, Chongqing and Hubei's CPI fell the most year-on-year, both reached 1.8%; Tibet's CPI rose in February entered the "first era", with a year-on-year increase of 1%.

"Second Brother" continues to fall in price

　　Food prices, especially pork prices, are an important factor in driving down CPI.

When interpreting the CPI data in February, Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that pork prices fell by 14.9% due to the high base in the same period last year.

Judging from the month-on-month data that can better reflect short-term changes, live pig production continued to recover, and pork prices changed from a 5.6% increase last month to a decrease of 3.1%.

　　New longitude and latitude Zhang Shunan in the data map

　　In addition, February coincides with the Spring Festival holiday of the Year of the Ox, and consumption is booming everywhere.

Affected by factors such as festival effects and weather, the prices of some commodities rose month-on-month.

Dong Lijuan said that the prices of aquatic products and fresh fruits rose 8.7% and 6.1% respectively from the previous month.

　　The reporter of China-Singapore Jingwei noted that the domestic and foreign agricultural product market dynamics monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs website showed that the average weekly price of pork wholesale market in the 9th week of 2021 (March 1-March 7) was 38.57 yuan per kilogram, down 2.1 from the previous month. %, a decline for 6 consecutive weeks, 21.5% lower than the same period last year.

The average price of fruits continued to rise slightly. The weekly average price of the six key monitored fruits was 6.73 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 1.2% month-on-month and an increase of 18.7% year-on-year.

　　Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Institute of Zhixin Investment, believes that the current decisive factors for CPI are pork prices and tail-lifting factors.

After entering the second quarter, the tail-lifting factor will gradually fade, and after the second quarter of pork, the supply and demand relationship will also tend to balance.

　　According to the analysis of the Huatai Futures Research Report, the most tight period in the pork market has passed. As the newly added live pig production capacity gradually turns into pork production, the relationship between supply and demand in the later period will become more and more relaxed, and pork prices are expected to maintain a downward trend this year.

However, we still need to pay attention to the African swine fever epidemic. If it continues to spread, it will slow the recovery of my country's live pig production capacity. Pig prices may remain at a high level in 2021-2022.

What is the future price trend?

　　New longitude and latitude Zhang Shunan in the data map

　　This year's "Government Work Report" puts forward that in 2021, consumer prices are expected to increase by about 3%.

Sun Guojun, a member of the Party Leadership Group of the Research Office of the State Council, said that from the perspective of this year's situation, the expected target of consumer price increase is set at about 3%, which is lower than last year's expected target. The government is confident to control the CPI at a relatively low level.

　　"Food prices account for a high proportion of the CPI. In recent years, grain production has been harvested year after year, and the supply of agricultural products has been guaranteed. Coupled with the basic recovery of live pig production capacity, it is conducive to maintaining price stability." Sun Guojun said.

　　Regarding the future CPI trend, Lian Ping predicts that in the second quarter of this year, my country's CPI will show a slight and moderate increase, and it will be relatively stable in the second half of the year.

For the whole year, the CPI maintained a range of 1% to 1.5% is a relatively mild state.

　　Guo Liyan, director of the Market and Price Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, believes that there is a solid foundation for maintaining stable prices in my country.

In the later period, the CPI is expected to return to a moderate growth range, showing a "low before the beginning and then stable" situation during the year, with a slight increase throughout the year.

　　Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, said in an interview with a reporter from China-Singapore Jingwei that, from a trend perspective, the CPI will return to the "positive" track in March, but the price trend is moderate.

Mainly due to factors such as the guarantee of the supply of agricultural products and necessities of the people's livelihood, the continuous improvement of the relationship between the supply and demand of live pigs, and the stable supply of domestic fruits and vegetables.

At the same time, it is necessary to guard against the effects of African swine fever and higher-than-expected energy commodity prices.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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