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The number of experts who consider faster vaccination progress possible in Germany is growing.

According to the general practitioners, a study by the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK) of the union-affiliated Hans Böckler Foundation also assumes that all Germans willing to vaccinate could be taken care of by the end of July.

So far, the federal government has only promised to offer every German a vaccination by the end of September.

The IMK study, which is exclusively available to WELT, shows how the target can be achieved months earlier with the available vaccine doses - however, the vaccination rate would have to be increased drastically in the coming weeks.

According to the calculations, the existing vaccine will only be the limiting factor until April, after which it will be important to actually administer the vaccine.

For the period up to the end of April, an increase in the pace from currently up to 200,000 vaccinations per day to 275,000 would be necessary.

Who gets which vaccine and when?

The prioritization, i.e. who is allowed to be vaccinated first, remains the main controversial topic.

The President of the German Medical Association demands that doctors may deviate from the vaccination sequence.

Meanwhile, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) is also reviewing approval for Sputnik V.

Source: WORLD

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From the end of April to the end of June, however, the number would then have to be increased significantly to around 670,000 doses per day.

"In principle, it should be feasible to ramp up the vaccinations and politicians should now focus on taking the necessary measures," write the authors of the study, Sebastian Dullien and Andrew Watt.

The basis for calculating the number of people willing to be vaccinated in Germany are survey values ​​according to which 75 percent of Germans state that they want to be vaccinated against the coronavirus "definitely" or "probably".

Since children are currently not allowed to be vaccinated with the existing vaccines, the population consists only of the 70 million adults in Germany, three quarters of which result in around 52.5 million people who want to be vaccinated.

The researchers also assume that in addition to the already approved vaccines from Biontech, Moderna and AstraZeneca, the vaccine from Johnson & Johnson will soon be able to be inoculated.

Based on the delivery quantities of the individual manufacturers announced by the federal government, it results that a total of 136.6 million cans will be available by the end of July.

Source: WORLD infographic

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Since one dose is already sufficient for the vaccine from Johnson & Johnson and two doses are required from each of the other manufacturers, it is calculated that 77.6 million adults in Germany can be fully vaccinated by the end of July.

This means that mathematically enough doses will be available by the end of June to supply all those willing to be vaccinated.

However, significantly more of the available vaccine would have to be vaccinated in the coming weeks.

The ratio of the inoculated cans to the cans delivered is currently around 70 percent.

As in other countries, this quota should be increased to 85 percent at least by the end of April.

After that, it could even fall again: If the goal of supplying all those willing to be vaccinated is to be achieved by the end of July, the proportion of doses inoculated up to then in relation to the doses delivered would only have to increase slightly to 73 percent.

The researchers point out, however, that increasing the average number of daily vaccinations to 275,000 does not sound like much.

In view of the strongly fluctuating and, especially on weekends, significantly lower vaccination numbers, this is also a challenge.

If, for example, it remains that far fewer people are vaccinated on Sundays, the average value between the end of April and the end of July would have to rise to 800,000 for the remaining days.

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That is an ambitious goal.

"But there are some indications that this can be achieved once the delivery-related bottlenecks have been eliminated and provided that the necessary policy focus and the pooling of funds are in place," the authors of the study write.

The pace can be increased in particular if less attention is paid to prioritization because the most vulnerable groups have already received their vaccinations.

Family and company doctors should also be able to vaccinate as soon as possible in order to increase the speed.

However, it shows that, despite the slow start, significantly more ambitious time targets can still be achieved.