Chinanews client, Beijing, March 9th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Down!
drop!
drop!
Pork prices have fallen for many weeks!
At the end of 2020, when we were still cheering for the falling pork prices, the "Second Brothers" killed a carbine, and pork prices rebounded.
However, since the end of January, pork prices have once again entered a downward channel, and after the Spring Festival, pork prices have even been on the "slide."
Pork prices fall in Beijing
"Now the front is 22 yuan a catty, and five pigs cost 27 yuan a catty." In a vegetable market in Xicheng District, Beijing, a pork seller told a reporter from Chinanews.com, "Pork prices have declined during this period. After the Spring Festival, There are a lot less people buying pork, and the price is several yuan cheaper."
In a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing, the price of pork is also cheaper than before.
The price tag shows that the front and back tip is 24.8 yuan per catty, and the pork belly is 28.8 yuan per catty.
Pork sold in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.
Photo by Xie Yiguan, reporter from China News Service
"In my impression, the price of pork belly in 2020 has not been lower than 30 yuan, and recently you can eat pork belly below 30 yuan." A resident said.
In a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing, the reporter noticed that some pork was on sale, for example, 300 grams of pork belly with skin 22.8 yuan; 400 grams of pork hind leg with skin 24.8 yuan; 300 grams of pork front leg with skin 18.5 yuan; 300 grams of selected front elbow is 14.9 yuan.
However, there are some butcher shops where the price of pork is still higher.
According to a pork stall at a vegetable market in Fengtai District, Beijing, the big five-flowers cost 33.5 yuan per catty, the small five-flowers cost 40 yuan a catty, and the front and back sharp ones cost 26 yuan a catty.
"The front and rear tip has recently been cheaper by two yuan. The purchase price of pork is already high, and we can't sell it cheaply." The meat seller said, "If you buy meat often, you will find that the price of pork changes quickly. Cheap and sometimes expensive."
National pork prices have also fallen for several consecutive weeks
Not only in Beijing, but national pork prices have also begun to "decline" recently.
"Entering 2021, the price of live pigs in Northeast China and the whole country will continue to fall, and the price decline will accelerate after the Spring Festival." Ma Liyuan, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, pointed out that according to statistics, as of February 22, 2021, the Northeast region's hogs will be slaughtered in February. The average price was 28.35 yuan/kg, a cumulative decrease of 18.95%, a decrease of 31.07% from the beginning of January.
The reporter combed through the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and found that the national average price of live pigs and pork has entered a "downward channel" since the fourth week of January. As of the fourth week of February, the national average price of live pigs was 29.66 yuan/kg, down 6.7 from the previous week. %, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%.
The national average price of pork is 48.50 yuan/kg, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous week and a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%.
Among them, the average price of pork in South China is higher, at 53.36 yuan/kg; in Northeast China, the average price is lower at 43.64 yuan/kg.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the weekly wholesale price of pork fell for several consecutive weeks, from 47.47 yuan per kilogram in mid-January (January 11-17) to per kilogram at the end of February (February 22-28). 38.59 yuan, just over a month, a drop of 18.7%.
Data map: Customers are buying pork.
Photo by Tang Yanjun
Why did the price of pork fall?
“Recently, the price of live pigs has continued to fall, mainly due to the seasonal off-season consumption.” Feng Yonghui, an analyst at China Live Pig Warning Network, told China News.com. “According to past rules, after the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of pork is weak, and the market appears. A drop of about 10%-20% is normal."
Why is the price of Northeast pork lower?
“Affected by the frequency of African swine fever and other epidemics, low-priced small white strips flood the northern market. The northeast white striped pigs are not profitable from foreign transfers, and domestic sales competition is becoming increasingly fierce. The market'smashing' phenomenon is serious.” Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Ma Liyuan said.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of the end of November 2020, the national pig stocks and reproductive sow stocks have been restored to more than 90% of their normal annual levels. 23 provinces have completed their production capacity restoration tasks ahead of schedule, and the national pig stocks will be completed by 2021 at the latest. In the first half of the year, it returned to normal levels.
“Due to the obvious recovery of the production capacity of hairy pigs, the market volume of white striped pigs was significantly higher than that of the same period in 2020, and the supply began to shift from tight to loose. In the case of relatively sufficient supply of hairy pigs, the price of white striped pigs after the Spring Festival Both month-on-month and year-on-year, there has been a significant decline." said Liu Tong, head of the market statistics department of Xinfadi.
In addition to seasonality and supply and demand, the recent decline in pork prices is also affected by factors such as the intensive supply of central reserve meat.
On March 5, Huachu.com once again traded 10,000 tons of frozen pork from the central reserve. This is the 8th time this year has been released, and the cumulative amount has reached 200,000 tons.
Data map: pork.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun
Short-term fear of rebound, prices fluctuated downward throughout the year
Although pork prices have shown a downward trend recently, considering the supply and demand situation, “It is expected that in mid-to-early March, the price of live pigs will hardly show a sustained upward and downward trend, or maintain fluctuations. From mid-to-late March to April, domestic pig prices will exceed The probability of a rebound is greater.” Ma Liyuan pointed out.
According to Ma Liyuan’s analysis, on the supply side, due to the interference of the epidemic, starting from January, some farms in Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places will slaughter 70-90 kg of medium-weight pigs in advance, which will make it as early as mid-to-late March. , The supply of live pigs in the northern region may be vacant for 2 months or more.
In terms of demand, the new crown epidemic is gradually under control, and residents' ability to accept high-priced pork has increased. After the post-holiday consumption downturn, demand for pork may gradually improve.
In addition, the number of frozen meat stocked in ports is large, which may have a certain impact on the consumption of fresh pork in the later period.
In the long run, “the overall momentum of market supply and demand is good.” Tang Renjian, director of the Central Agricultural Office and Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at a press conference on February 22 that as the new live pig production capacity is being realized as pork production, the pork market The most tight period of supply has passed, and the relationship between supply and demand in the later period will become more and more relaxed.
"It is expected that the first quarter of this year, around March, will increase by about 40% over the same period of the previous year. By the second quarter, around June, the pig stock will be restored to the level of the normal year of 2017. In the second half of the year, live pigs will be released for slaughter and The pork supply will gradually return to the normal level of the year." Tang Renjian said.
"Considering the supply of live pigs, pork prices in 2021 will be lower than in 2020, but the specific decline will be affected by many uncertain factors such as swine diseases, policies, and the level of prevention and control of African swine fever." Feng Yonghui pointed out "This year, pork prices will fluctuate in general, and pork prices will fall sharply in the off-season of seasonal consumption; prices will rebound in peak demand seasons."
The pig cycle may accelerate to bottom out
In the pig breeding industry, cyclical fluctuations are very obvious, which will form a cyclical cycle of "insufficient supply-price increase-excess stock-excess supply-price fall-withdrawal of farmers-insufficient supply" every three to four years. The "Pig Cycle".
"This round of pig cycle is superimposed on the dual impact of the introduction of African swine fever, forming a'super pig cycle'. To this end, a series of policies have been quickly issued from the central to the local level to promote production capacity recovery and industry development." Chairman of New Hope Group Liu Yonghao recently stated that as of January 2021, the number of breeding sows has increased for 16 consecutive months.
According to this growth rate, within two to three years, China's live pig stock will reach 700 to 800 million, far exceeding the consumption in the Chinese market, and the pig cycle will accelerate and bottom out.
"In order to prevent the industry from'catch up and disperse as soon as it rushes,' the overheating of capital promotes serious overcapacity, and even when the next round of the pig cycle is downturned, there will be extremes of'killing sows and chopping farms without getting the loan' For the situation, it is necessary to take a long-term view and introduce a series of guiding policies to plan, regulate, reserve, and make good use of the existing pig production capacity." Liu Yonghao said.
The 2021 Central Document No. 1 issued on February 21 proposes to accelerate the construction of a modern breeding system, protect the basic production capacity of live pigs, and improve a long-term mechanism for the stable and orderly development of the live pig industry.
Have you bought pork recently?
How much is a catty?
(Finish)