Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, March 4th, on the 4th, the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar reported 6.4758, down 193 points, a record low since January 28.
The median price of the previous trading day was reported at 6.4565.
Source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center website
The trend of the RMB exchange rate in February 2021 showed a sharp rise in the first and middle ten days, and then turned into a shock correction in the latter ten days.
During the year, the U.S. dollar index and the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the renminbi remained within a relatively stable floating range.
As of March 2, the dollar index closed at 90.94.
The analysis report issued by the National Economic Research Center of Peking University believes that the fluctuation trend of the RMB exchange rate is the result of a combination of internal and external factors.
The internal environment shows that the fundamentals of China's economy have been repairing, and the policy is to adhere to a prudent monetary policy that is flexible and appropriate, and further improve the functions of the foreign exchange market, expand the high-level two-way opening of finance, and support the continued strength of the RMB exchange rate in the future.
The external environment showed that the overall external environment was tense in February, and it is expected that the tense trend will continue in March, which will put pressure on the RMB exchange rate.
The National Economic Research Center of Peking University predicts that with the stable recovery of China’s economy in March 2021, stable economic fundamentals and the spread between Chinese and foreign interest rates will support the renminbi exchange rate to maintain its upward momentum, but due to the continued tension in the external environment, inflation expectations will lead to U.S. debt As the yield rate rises, the U.S. dollar index is expected to remain volatile, which will likely put the RMB exchange rate under pressure.
Therefore, the
renminbi exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in March 2021 and fluctuate widely in both directions in the range of 6.35 to 6.50.
In a recent interview with CCTV Finance, Zhu Min, a well-known economist, Dean of the National Institute of Finance of Tsinghua University, and former vice president of the International Monetary Fund, said: “The reform of the RMB exchange rate market has not stalled. It has been pushing forward through marketization. The reform of the U.S. dollar is not fully linked to the U.S. dollar. The fluctuation of the U.S. dollar’s interest rate level has relatively little direct and indirect impact on the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, there is a lot of room for policy. Controllable fluctuations can be gradually eased through market adjustments. Therefore, China’s monetary policy and the U.S. monetary policy still have a good buffer from now on."
Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, previously stated that looking forward to the future, the external environment is still complicated, and there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in the recovery of the world economy. my country is building a new higher-level open economic system. The basis for sustained and healthy economic development remains unchanged, and the foreign exchange market is expected to maintain stable operation. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)