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Experts call it “one-stop shopping”: In order to keep the number of contacts low, consumers currently cover their needs by shopping in just one supermarket or discount store.

The dealers are therefore trying to become the business of choice with aggressive offers.

And beer plays a crucial role in this.

“Beer is a stable and important driver of footfall,” says the supermarket chain Rewe, for example.

“Especially the segment around ten euros per box.” And in fact, this value seems to be becoming the benchmark again for retail chains.

This is shown by a glance at the retailers' offer sheets, in which the beer promotions are usually shown on the first or last page in order to be particularly clearly visible.

The current brochure from Rewe in Berlin, for example, advertises a case of Radeberger Pils with 20 half-liter bottles for 9.99 euros, 32 percent below the normal price.

Source: WORLD infographic

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Kaufland is charging a whopping ten euros for the Warsteiner box in Leipzig, which is also a discount of around a third.

Discounter Netto is advertising its “super weekend” in Frankfurt with Krombacher Pils for 9.99 euros, and wholesaler Metro offers Bitburger across the country for 9.98 euros.

Worry about an even fiercer price war

That was different.

In any case, before the Corona crisis, the promotional prices for branded pils were easily two euros higher than now.

And even in 2020, the average was still an eleven to the decimal point, as the current advertising price index from market and price researcher Drotax from Bad Homburg shows.

But now the topic of the value of beer, which has been the subject of numerous discussions in recent years with the emergence of the craft scene and the triumph of the much more expensive Helles variety, seems to have completely vanished.

"The sharpness in the dispute is increasing again", observes Axel Dahm, the managing director of the industry giant Bitburger.

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Actually, he had already expected an even fiercer price war in 2020.

In the lockdown times, the grocery trade was the last remaining major sales channel for the breweries.

Nevertheless, there was still a comparatively stable situation.

“Reason ruled,” says Dahm.

Now the manager fears that the price war will intensify and that beer will be increasingly sold off.

Entry-level brands are already approaching the five-euro mark.

"Depending on how long the crisis lasts and how hard it hits the breweries, there can be outliers everywhere."

Large supplies in the cellars

A look at the January balance sheet of the Federal Statistical Office shows how precarious the situation is for beer manufacturers.

For beer sales in Germany, a minus of 27 percent compared to the same month last year is reported: instead of 6.5, only 4.7 million hectoliters were collected from the breweries.

Source: WORLD infographic

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This is the highest monthly loss since statistics began, according to the German Brewers' Association (DBB).

The sales declines were particularly severe in Hesse with 46.8 percent and Schleswig-Holstein / Hamburg with 37.5 percent.

The lowest losses were in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Lower Saxony / Bremen and Thuringia with around 13 percent each.

As a reason for the crash, in addition to the still closed gastronomy, the breweries have identified, among other things, pent-up stocks in the consumers' basement - because there were no meetings on Christmas or New Year's Eve and therefore consumption events were no longer possible.

So the beer calculated for visiting relatives has to be drunk away on your own one by one.

At the same time, continued short-time work has a negative effect on consumer behavior.

And as a special effect, there are also significantly fewer orders from retailers and beverage markets.

"They filled up their warehouses again in December to take advantage of the reduced VAT," explains brewery boss Dahm.

Retail sales are also falling

In fact, data from logistics show that around a third fewer beverage vans were on the road in January, according to a beer publisher.

However, this detail also means that the decline in the breweries does not automatically have to result in a similarly high minus in the end-consumer business.

Whereby market researcher Nielsen shows a minus for sales in retail for the first six weeks of 2021, but only in the single-digit percentage range.

In February the general downward trend seems to continue for the time being, according to the breweries.

In addition, there is a tough outlook for March in view of the continuing lack of opening perspectives for the catering trade.

In any case, the relevant associations criticize the plans of the most recent federal-state conference, even if easing has been initiated there, at least for outdoor catering.

“It is quite possible that the beer market will lose as much volume by Easter as it did in the entire previous year,” explains a major brewer.

The brewers' association has long been warning of a wave of bankruptcies.

"From week to week, more and more breweries, brewery restaurants and specialist wholesalers get into existential hardship through no fault of their own and are threatened with bankruptcy," says an open letter signed by more than 300 breweries.

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Bitburger too.

The head of the company, Dahm, does not see the family business from Rhineland-Palatinate in need.

“We're not doing well either,” says the manager.

"But we are still doing comparatively passably."

Sales in 2020 fell by twelve percent to 696 million euros, reports the brewing group, which also includes the Köstritzer, König Pilsener, Licher and Benediktiner brands.

The business was divided into two parts: while the catering sector slumped by 51 percent, there was growth in retail, with the Bitburger brand by six percent, with Benedictine it was even 40 percent.

Bitburger faced this mixed situation as early as 2020 by cutting 130 jobs.

Dahm calls this "reorganization and strategy adjustment".

“Now we can endure more lockdowns,” he says.

"Even if the restaurant is closed all year round, we won't go under."

Nevertheless, he knows many competitors who are different.

That is why the company is also in wait.

"We are open to acquisitions and hope that the current situation will present one or the other opportunity," says Dahm and mentions the possibility of partnerships in addition to the purchase of brands.

Bitburger is currently concentrating on gaining market share in retail.

And of course he would like other price levels.

However, that should remain a wish.

"The trade is currently extremely self-confident towards the breweries," says the industry.

“Lately, some companies even wanted a discount for deferring the beer tax.” The levy was only postponed, not canceled.

The red pencil for the beer price should remain drawn.