Youth Economic Theory

  What are the hard-core supports for China's economy going out of the V-shaped curve?

  GDP per capita is an indicator of economic output efficiency, used to illustrate people's ability to create wealth and measure long-term changes in economic development.

It took the United Kingdom more than 150 years to increase its per capita GDP from US$1,300 to US$2,600, and it took 53 years for the United States to achieve the same doubling.

In just 20 years, China has achieved a 10-fold increase, and its per capita GDP has risen from US$1,000 to more than US$10,000.

  On February 28, the National Bureau of Statistics released the "Statistical Communiqué on National Economic and Social Development 2020."

This "comprehensive evaluation form" of China's economy shows that the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 will reach 101.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year; the per capita GDP is 72447 yuan, an increase of 2% over the previous year.

  According to Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's total economic output will exceed 100 trillion yuan in 2020, and the per capita GDP will exceed 10,000 US dollars for two consecutive years.

China is also the only major economy in the world that has achieved positive economic growth. Based on the annual average exchange rate, China's total economic output in 2020 is expected to account for more than 17% of the world economy.

  In the first to fourth quarters of 2019, China's GDP grew by 6.3%, 6.0%, 5.9%, and 5.8% respectively year-on-year, and in the first to fourth quarters of 2020, the year-on-year growth was -6.8%, 3.2%, 4.9%, and 6.5%.

Sheng Laiyun said that China's economy "comes out of a V-shaped curve that is amazing to the world and has become the main force driving the recovery of the global economy."

GDP per capita exceeded US$10,000 for the second consecutive year

  Although he has retired from the government for many years, Yao Jingyuan, a well-known economist and special researcher of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, is still very busy.

Every time an important macroeconomic indicator is released, his call may be overwhelmed.

The outside world wants to know how this former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics evaluates the current economic situation in China.

  For China's economy in 2020, Yao Jingyuan pays particular attention to two indicators: total economic volume and per capita GDP.

In his view, the former determines the "bulge" of China's economy. "With the bulk, the ability to resist risks is strong enough, and the resilience and room for maneuver will be great." The latter is "China's economic sustainability and future growth potential." symbols of".

  In 2010, China's GDP totaled 40,0513 billion yuan; 10 years later, the total GDP reached 101.6 trillion yuan, successfully achieving the goal of doubling.

"Doubled from 2010. This is an important indicator for achieving a well-off society in an all-round way. Now we have completed the task in terms of total amount." Yao Jingyuan said.

  Sheng Laiyun said that in the past year, my country has stepped up its targeted poverty alleviation efforts, continued to promote pollution prevention and control, and actively prevented and defuses major risks.

"Take down the most difficult fortress, gnaw off the hardest bones, win the battle against poverty, and achieve great historic achievements in building a well-off society in all respects."

  Compared with the total GDP, the international community pays more attention to the per capita GDP indicator.

Nobel Prize winner Stiglitz pointed out in his masterpiece "Economics" that per capita GDP is a portrayal indicator of economic output efficiency, used to illustrate people's ability to create wealth and measure long-term changes in economic development.

  Historically, the growth of GDP per capita in most countries has gone through a long process.

It took more than 150 years for the United Kingdom to increase its per capita GDP from US$1,300 to US$2,600, and it took 53 years for the United States to achieve the same doubling.

It took only 20 years for China to achieve a 10-fold increase in per capita GDP from US$1,000 to more than US$10,000.

  However, $10,000 per capita GDP is often seen as a threshold.

The World Bank uses per capita GNI (Gross National Income) to classify countries with different income levels. Countries with a per capita GNI of more than US$12,375 are regarded as high-income countries.

For China, the gap between per capita GNI and per capita GDP is very small, and it is still a middle-income country.

  Tracking the history of various countries, most countries that have entered the middle-income level, after the per capita GDP reaches a certain level, the gap between the rich and the poor has further widened, falling into a long-term economic stagnation, and few people are among the high-income countries.

Therefore, the World Bank put forward the concept of "middle income trap".

  He Hanli, a well-known American expert on China, once reminded that reform and opening up have enabled China to overcome the "poverty trap" and become a middle-to-high-income country, but it must be careful to avoid the "middle-income trap."

  Yao Jingyuan believes that the per capita GDP has exceeded US$10,000 for two consecutive years, especially under the influence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, which still achieves such results. This shows that China's economy still has growth potential in the future and is fully capable of crossing the "middle income trap."

Employment indicators are overfulfilled

  If GDP per capita represents the wealth created by each person on average, and is an indicator of "national wealth", then the growth of residents' income and the degree of wealth accumulation are a symbol of whether "hidden wealth is in the people".

  Although the epidemic has adversely affected residents' income, the growth of residents' income has kept pace with economic growth.

The "Communiqué" shows that in 2020, the national per capita disposable income of residents is 32,189 yuan, an increase of 4.7% over the previous year. After deducting price factors, the actual increase is 2.1%, faster than the growth rate of per capita GDP.

The national median per capita disposable income of residents was 27,540 yuan, an increase of 3.8%.

The per capita disposable income of rural residents increased by 3.8% in real terms over the previous year, 2.6 percentage points faster than that in urban areas.

The ratio of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents was 2.56, a decrease of 0.08 from the previous year.

  The "China National Balance Sheet 2020" issued by the National Finance and Development Laboratory and the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that the wealth of the national resident sector accounted for 76%, reaching 512.6 trillion yuan, and the per capita wealth of residents was about 366,000 yuan.

From 2000 to 2019, the compound annual growth rate of China's nominal GDP was 12.8%, while the compound annual growth rate of social net wealth was 16.2%, which was higher than the economic growth rate.

  Yao Jingyuan believes that the increase in residents' income is largely due to the stability of residents' employment, especially under the impact of the epidemic, the policy of giving priority to employment in the past year has achieved positive results.

  The "Communiqué" shows that last year, 11.86 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, which was 1.66 million fewer than the previous year.

As of the end of 2020, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.2%, and the registered urban unemployment rate was 4.2%, both of which were lower than expected targets.

Sheng Laiyun said that in 2020, it is solid and effective to ensure the employment of residents and the basic people's livelihood, and the employment indicators have exceeded the target set at the beginning of the year.

  "Last year, under such difficult circumstances, we planned to add 9 million (jobs), and actually added 11.86 million. The unemployment rate in the survey was also lower than the year before. This achievement is really hard-won." In Yao Jingyuan's view, the ultimate goal of economic work It is to improve people's livelihood, and employment is the foundation of people's livelihood.

  Many economists believe that every new percentage point of China's GDP can support 2 million jobs.

Now, with only 2.3% GDP growth, how can more than 10 million new jobs be supported?

  According to Wan Zhe, a professor at Beijing Normal University and a researcher at the One Belt One Road College, last year, China’s economic recovery of employment indicators was mainly due to the rapid economic recovery during the epidemic. Especially in the second half of the year, many companies’ export orders increased and they absorbed a considerable amount. More employment.

But she also reminded that with other countries speeding up the resumption of work and production, as well as the efforts of fiscal and monetary policies, export-oriented enterprises should pay attention to large changes in external demand this year.

Consumption is gradually picking up

  In this "comprehensive evaluation form", economic data related to consumption attracts the most attention.

  In 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide will be 391981 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.9% over the previous year.

Statistic by consumption type, retail sales of goods reached 35,455.3 billion yuan, a drop of 2.3%.

Affected by the epidemic, the consumption situation of all walks of life is not optimistic. For example, the income of the catering industry, which is most affected by the epidemic, fell by 16.6%.

  Reflected in personal consumption expenditure, in 2020, the national per capita consumption expenditure of residents was 21,210 yuan, a decrease of 1.6% from the previous year. After deducting price factors, the actual decrease was 4.0%.

Among them, the per capita service consumption expenditure was 9,037 yuan, a decrease of 8.6% from the previous year, accounting for 42.6% of the residents' per capita consumption expenditure.

In the "troika" of economic growth, consumer spending drove a 0.5% drop in GDP, a 2.2% increase in gross capital formation, and a 0.7% increase in net exports of goods and services.

  Wan Zhe believes that the current consumer enthusiasm and ability of the whole society has not fully recovered from the impact of the epidemic.

First of all, because of the repeated epidemics, different industries have been affected in different ways. Consumption such as transportation, tourism and shipping is still frustrated, but the CPI for food consumption is relatively high, and even inflation and deflation have both existed.

Secondly, under the influence of the epidemic, the savings rate of residents is rising, and the willingness to consume has decreased.

In addition, small and micro enterprises that have solved a large number of jobs are still facing shocks, and the alarm of difficulty in capital turnover and tight liquidity has not been lifted.

  The consumption structure of residents has also changed significantly.

In 2020, the retail sales of grain, oil and food will increase by 9.9% over the previous year, beverages will increase by 14.0%, tobacco and alcohol will increase by 5.4%, cosmetics will increase by 9.5%, communication equipment will increase by 12.9%, clothing, shoes and hats, knitted textiles A drop of 6.6%, gold, silver and jewellery fell by 4.7%, petroleum and products fell by 14.5%, and automobiles fell by 1.8%.

  Wan Zhe believes that in order to promote consumption, we must basically find ways to increase residents' income, focus on the construction of the business environment, and help small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households develop.

  She also suggested that during the epidemic, digital cultural and entertainment services have achieved rapid growth and have become a new point of consumption growth. We can learn from the experience of Japan and South Korea and other countries to vigorously promote the development of cultural and creative industries and deregulate relevant regulations.

"Now our consumption trend has developed from necessities to non-necessities, from physical products to cultural and spiritual products."

  According to data from the National Film Administration, during the 7 days of the Spring Festival holiday, the national box office of movies reached 7.822 billion yuan, an increase of 32.47% over 2019. It once again broke the national movie box office record for the Spring Festival file and set a number of world box office records at the same time.

According to the "Annual Report on China's Online Film Industry in 2020", a total of 769 new online movies will be released in 2020, of which 79 movies have a box office of 10 million yuan, and the box office of tens of millions of movies has increased by 125% year-on-year.

  The recovery of the film and television entertainment industry is also the epitome of the recovery of national spending power.

Yao Jingyuan believes that the consumption situation in most industries is recovering well today. Since the third and fourth quarters of last year, many consumption indicators have turned from negative to positive and are picking up month by month.

This year, in the context of expanding domestic demand and building a new development pattern, household consumption will gradually pick up.

  China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily reporter Wang Lin Source: China Youth Daily