(Economic Observer) Why did the price increase in the Pearl River Delta in the first two months of this year exceed the Yangtze River Delta?

　　China News Service, Beijing, March 2 (Reporter Pang Wuji) At the beginning of 2021, the Pearl River Delta replaced the Yangtze River Delta as the region with the largest cumulative increase in new house prices.

　　According to data released by the Zhongzhi Research Institute a few days ago, from January to February 2021, the price of new houses in the Pearl River Delta region has risen by 1.25%, ranking first among major urban agglomerations.

In the same period, housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong Peninsula, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations rose by 0.73%, 0.27% and 0.02% respectively, all of which did not exceed 1%.

　　In the first two months of this year, among the top 20 cities with a month-on-month increase in new housing prices in 100 cities, 5 cities in the Pearl River Delta accounted for new housing prices in Guangzhou (2.37%), Dongguan (2.25%), and Zhongshan (1.52%). The increase was higher.

　　In the whole year of last year, the region where housing prices rose the most was the Yangtze River Delta.

According to data from the Zhongzhi Institute, new house prices in cities in the Yangtze River Delta have risen by more than 5%. Among them, Hangzhou, Wuxi, Jiaxing and other cities have led the way in house price increases.

The Pearl River Delta is second only to the Yangtze River Delta, with housing prices rising by more than 3%.

However, at the beginning of this year, this situation has reversed.

　　Why is the price increase in the Pearl River Delta leading the way?

　　A place’s economic fundamentals, real estate control policies, and credit financial activity are the main factors affecting housing prices.

　　From the perspective of economic development, the Pearl River Delta region is located at the forefront of China's coastal opening up, with obvious geographical advantages, strong economic strength, and a gathering of innovative elements. It has become a core city cluster with the most development potential and space.

With the continuous promulgation and implementation of relevant plans in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, more talents are attracted to work in the Greater Bay Area, develop and purchase houses.

　　Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that the increase in housing prices in the Pearl River Delta is mainly driven by the two core cities of Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

Compared with the Yangtze River Delta region where the energy levels of cities are relatively evenly distributed, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are the absolute cores of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. The increase in housing prices in these two cities will also form a strong driving force for other cities in the region.

　　Take Shenzhen as an example. Since last year, second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen have "led the rise" for many months, and the absolute level of housing prices has also ranked first in the country.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in January this year, second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen rose 15.3% year-on-year, ranking first among 70 large and medium-sized cities.

The housing big data project team of the Academy of Financial Strategy Research of the Academy of Social Sciences recently released the median house price of big data in January, which also showed that the median house price of Shenzhen in January ranked first in the country, significantly higher than that of Beijing, which ranked second.

　　Since last year, the central banks of various countries have greatly released water, and the momentum of rising housing prices in international metropolises has further increased, especially in places where the economy is basically well-oriented but the real estate control policies are relatively loose. As a core asset, houses are sought after by capital from all walks of life. ".

　　In addition to relatively loose credit, Li Yujia pointed out that Shenzhen’s frequent second-hand housing owners have raised prices in a group, and the bullish expectations are strong. In addition, the price of a second-hand housing is "upside down", which has caused Shenzhen to fall into a repeated increase in the price of a second-hand housing in recent months. cycle.

　　Guangzhou housing prices are also trending upwards.

Li Yujia believes that there are two main reasons: On the one hand, the property market in Guangzhou has not tightened significantly since last year.

On the other hand, at the end of last year, Guangzhou adjusted its talent settlement policy. Seven districts, including Baiyun District, Huangpu District, and Huadu District, had relatively loose settlement policies, which provided a certain degree of convenience for foreigners to purchase houses.

　　In addition to the pull of housing prices in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the purchasing power spillover generated by the Shenzhen property market has also promoted housing prices in neighboring cities to a certain extent. The heating up of property markets such as Dongguan, Zhongshan, and Foshan is directly driven by Shenzhen's demand.

Li Yujia pointed out that in the Pearl River Delta, except for Shenzhen, the core area of ​​Guangzhou, and Dongguan, other cities and regions have basically liberalized purchase restrictions or have weaker policies, which cannot really block the influx of housing purchase funds.

　　In the Yangtze River Delta region, industry insiders analyzed that cities such as Hangzhou and Shanghai have all introduced and implemented regulatory policies this round, and housing prices have shown a narrowing trend.

　　Can the property market boom in the Pearl River Delta continue?

　　A previous report issued by the Shell Research Institute believes that the Pearl River Delta property market will perform well in 2020, mainly because the spillover effect of monetary easing in some cities such as Shenzhen and Dongguan is superimposed on the positive urban development, coupled with the intensified contradiction between supply and demand in the city itself. Caused the market to heat up.

　　Shenzhen and Dongguan increased regulation in the third quarter of 2020. After the regulation, the increase in second-hand housing prices in the two cities narrowed, but they continued to rise.

The report predicts that in the later period there may still be further regulatory policies such as further strengthening of financial supervision, and market demand may cool down in 2021.

　　Increasing land supply is an important means to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand.

The Shell Research Institute pointed out that in 2020, the residential land transaction volume in cities such as Zhongshan, Shenzhen, Huizhou and Dongguan in the Pearl River Delta will increase by more than two times year-on-year. The supply of new houses is expected to increase significantly, and the price increase in 2021 may narrow or even fall.

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