China News Service, Beijing, February 28 (Liu Liang) The global economy and trade are increasingly on the right track.
Analysts here believe that the popularization of vaccination this year will inject momentum into the global economic recovery and take the lead in promoting the economic and trade recovery of major global economies.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently released the Group of Twenty (G20) international merchandise trade data in the fourth quarter of last year.
Statistics show that commodity trade in G20 countries continued to pick up, with exports increasing by 7.2% and imports by 6.8%.
Except for Argentina, most of the G20 countries have achieved positive growth in import and export trade.
With the popularity of the new crown vaccine, economists believe that the G20 countries will be in a more favorable position this year and are expected to achieve a faster recovery from the impact of the epidemic.
According to data previously released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), compared with the general economic recession last year, most G20 countries are expected to achieve positive growth this year.
Wells Fargo International Economist pointed out that although there are many variable factors that will affect the trajectory of the economic improvement of the above-mentioned countries, it is expected that by the third quarter of 2021, the scope of global vaccine deployment will be further expanded, which will benefit the global consumption situation in the second half of the year. Economic growth confidence.
However, it should be noted that this does not mean that all G20 countries will experience a recovery of the same frequency resonance.
The analysis believes that in view of the differences in the health security system and economic capacity of various countries, the vaccination will be gradually gradual, and it is expected that the pace of economic repair in various countries will also show differences.
Economies such as China and the United States may be the first to usher in economic recovery. Economies such as India, Brazil, and Russia have weak health protection systems and the recovery process may be relatively slow.
Tufts University economist Bhaskar Chakravorti also believes that as the world's major economies begin to recover, the launch of vaccines will be crucial.
But he also pointed out that the ability of countries to implement remote and digital technologies will also facilitate the promotion of vaccination and the prevention and control of the epidemic, and is a strong indicator of the resilience of an economy.
The G20 countries are clearly slightly better in this regard.
He further said that in the future, governments may rely on digital tools to track who has been vaccinated and to ensure that only those who have been vaccinated can return to work in the office or travel abroad.
The IMF reminded that this year the global economy has started recovering growth, but the risks still cannot be ignored.
Especially when the epidemic is struck by layers and mutated viruses continue to appear, the road to vaccination is obstructed and long, and there are still huge uncertainties in the future.
At the same time, there has been a trend of differentiation among and within various economies. According to the IMF's recent forecast, by 2022, the cumulative loss of per capita income in emerging and developing countries (excluding China) will be as high as 22%, compared with 13% in developed economies. (Finish)