The report of the China Economic Agricultural Economic Prosperity Index in the fourth quarter of 2020 shows that


　　agricultural economic growth accelerates, and income from farming continues to rebound.


　　 Economic Daily, China Economic Trends Institute, National Bureau of Statistics, China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center

　　In the fourth quarter of 2020, under the positive effects of various policies for stabilizing production and supply and supporting agriculture and benefiting agriculture, my country's agricultural economy has maintained a sustained and steady progress.

The labor productivity of the primary industry for the whole year of 2020 is 37758.0 yuan per capita, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and the growth rate is 0.8 percentage points higher than the third quarter, gradually tending to the level before the epidemic.

Specifically, food production has a bumper harvest, live pig production capacity has further recovered, agricultural product prices have entered a moderately rising range, agricultural investment has accelerated, and agricultural income growth has continued to rebound.

The model predicts that the agricultural economy prosperity index is expected to increase further in the first half of 2021.

　　Prosperity index continues to rise and terminal demand is relatively weak

　　The results of the CEIBS Agricultural Economic Sentiment Monitoring and Early Warning show that the CEIBS Agricultural Economic Sentiment Index (hereinafter referred to as the Agricultural Economic Sentiment Index) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 100.0, which is 0.5 points higher than the third quarter and 0.5 points higher than the same period last year.

The China Economic Agricultural Economic Early Warning Index (hereinafter referred to as the Agricultural Economic Early Warning Index) was 96.7, an increase of 13.4 points from the third quarter, and rebounded to near the center line of the "green light area".

　　Compared with the third quarter, among the six indicators that constitute the agricultural economy prosperity index in the fourth quarter (only seasonal factors are removed, and random factors are retained), the growth rates of agricultural production, agricultural income, agricultural investment, and agricultural labor productivity all continue to rebound. Expenditure growth has slowed, while the decline in agricultural exports has expanded.

The above data shows that with the in-depth advancement of a series of policy measures to stabilize grain production and ensure product supply, the enthusiasm for agricultural production has been effectively improved, and the endogenous driving force of the agricultural economy has gradually increased, which has played an important role in supporting the recovery of agricultural prosperity. .

　　In the fourth quarter, among the 10 indicators that make up the agricultural economic early warning index, there is one indicator located in the "red light area", which is the ratio of pig feed; the indicator located in the "yellow light area" has one indicator, which is the import amount of cereals and products; There are five indicators in the “Green Light District”, which are the added value of the primary industry, the completion of fixed asset investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the production price index of agricultural products, the price index of agricultural production materials (reversal), and the financial expenditure of agriculture, forestry and water. There are two indicators for the “light district”, namely, the per capita net operating income of rural residents and the retail sales of grain, oil and food; the “blue light district” has one indicator, which is the export value of agricultural products.

　　Compared with the third quarter, in the fourth quarter, the level of 5 indicators rose. The added value of the primary industry, the completed investment in fixed assets of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and the price index of agricultural production materials (reversal) all rebounded from the "light blue light area" To the "green light area", the per capita net operating income of rural residents rebounded from the "blue light area" to the "light blue light area", and the import volume of cereals and products rose from the "green light area" to the "yellow light area"; 1 indicator light The level dropped, and the agricultural production price index dropped from the "yellow light area" to the "green light area"; the remaining four indicators remained unchanged.

　　It can be seen from the results of the early warning index that agricultural production and investment have rebounded to a normal growth range, agricultural product prices have also returned to a moderate increase range, and the agricultural economy continues to improve.

It should be noted that terminal demand is relatively weak, and further measures need to be taken to expand consumer demand.

　　Food production hit a new high

　　Rapid recovery of livestock production capacity

　　The added value of the primary industry in 2020 is 777.541 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the cumulative growth rate of the first three quarters, and is basically the same as the growth level in 2019.

In terms of quarters, the first quarter fell 3.2% year-on-year, and the second quarter to the fourth quarter achieved year-on-year growth and the growth rate increased quarter by quarter, with growth rates of 3.3%, 3.9% and 4.1% respectively.

The 4.1% growth rate in the fourth quarter is a relatively high growth level in recent years.

　　Food production reached a new high.

In 2020, the country’s total grain output was 1,339 billion catties, staying above 1.3 trillion catties for six consecutive years, achieving bumper harvests in successive years; output increased by 0.9% over the previous year, setting a new record high.

Among them, the output of summer grain was 285.7 billion jin, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year; the output of early rice was 54.6 billion jin, an increase of 3.9%; the output of autumn grain was 998.7 billion jin, an increase of 0.7%.

In terms of varieties, rice output was 423.7 billion jin, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year; wheat output was 268.5 billion jin, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year; corn output was 521.3 billion jin, flat slightly reduced; soybean output was 39.2 billion jin, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year.

On the one hand, the increase in grain production lies in the expansion of the sown area. In 2020, the grain sown area will increase by 10.56 million mu compared with 2019, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year; the other is the increase in the output per unit area. The national grain output per unit area in 2020 is higher than that in 2019. Increased by 0.9 kg/mu, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%.

　　The production capacity of the livestock industry has gradually recovered, and the production of livestock products has basically returned to the level before the epidemic.

In 2020, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 76.39 million tons, basically the same as the previous year.

Among them, the production capacity of live pigs showed a recovery growth trend.

In 2020, my country will increase its support for the recovery of live pig production capacity, and the production capacity of live pigs will recover rapidly.

At the end of 2020, the national live pig population was 406.5 million, an increase of 96.1 million over the end of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 31.0%, and the quarter-on-quarter growth was achieved for five consecutive quarters; the number of live pigs for the year was 52.04 million, a decrease of 17.15 million over the previous year, a decrease of 3.2%. The rate of decline narrowed by 8.5 percentage points compared with the first three quarters. After the year-on-year growth rate of slaughter in the third quarter became positive, the fourth quarter further accelerated. In the fourth quarter, the slaughter of pigs increased by 22.9% over the same period of the previous year; the national pork output was 41.13 million tons, a decrease from the previous year. 1.42 million tons, a decrease of 3.3%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 7.4 percentage points compared with the previous three quarters.

Cattle and sheep production achieved a small increase.

At the end of 2020, the national cattle inventory was 95.62 million heads, an increase of 4.24 million heads over the end of the previous year, an increase of 4.6%; the annual beef cattle production was 45.65 million heads, an increase of 320,000 heads over the previous year, an increase of 0.7%; the beef output was 6.72 million tons, an increase of 50,000 Tons, an increase of 0.8%; milk production was 34.4 million tons, an increase of 2.39 million tons, an increase of 7.5%.

At the end of 2020, the national sheep population was 306.55 million, an increase of 5.83 million over the end of the previous year, an increase of 1.9%; the annual number of sheep was 314.41 million, an increase of 2.42 million over the previous year, an increase of 0.8%; the output of mutton was 4.92 million tons, an increase of 50,000 Tons, an increase of 1.0%.

Poultry production is growing rapidly.

At the end of 2020, the country’s poultry inventory was 6.78 billion, an increase of 260 million over the end of the previous year, an increase of 4.0%; the annual poultry production was 15.57 billion, an increase of 930 million over the previous year, an increase of 6.3%; the output of poultry meat was 23.61 million tons, an increase of 122 Million tons, an increase of 5.5%; the output of poultry eggs was 34.68 million tons, an increase of 1.59 million tons, an increase of 4.8%.

　　The export of advantageous agricultural products is improving

　　The rise in agricultural production prices fell

　　In 2020, my country’s agricultural exports amounted to 76.03 billion U.S. dollars, down 3.2% year-on-year. The rate of decline was 0.5% larger than the third quarter, but 0.5% smaller than the first half.

　　Faced with the impact of the epidemic, my country has increased its support for the export of advantageous agricultural products by increasing the export tax rebate rate and accelerating the development of cross-border e-commerce. my country's export of advantageous agricultural products has continued to improve.

Data shows that in 2020, my country’s aquatic and seafood exports will fall by 8.0% year-on-year, which is 2.8 percentage points smaller than the cumulative decline in the first three quarters, and the decline has narrowed for three consecutive quarters; fresh or refrigerated vegetables will achieve a year-on-year growth of 4.1%; fresh and dried fruits And Nuts continued to maintain a rapid growth trend with a year-on-year increase of 14.7%.

　　The increase in domestic demand for feed grain has led to a substantial increase in grain imports.

In 2020, my country’s imports of cereals and products were 10.71 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 66.8%, and the growth rate was 21.1 percentage points higher than that in the third quarter, and the growth rate rose sharply for two consecutive quarters.

Among them, imports of wheat, corn, and sorghum increased significantly throughout the year.

The data shows that wheat imports were 8.38 million tons and imports were 2.35 billion U.S. dollars, up by 140.2% and 134.0% year-on-year; corn imports were 11.3 million tons, and imports were 2.49 billion U.S. dollars, up by 135.7% and 134.5% year-on-year; sorghum imports were 4.81 million tons. , The import value was 1.16 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 478.6% and 501.2% respectively.

Imports of barley, rice, and soybeans also showed a relatively rapid growth trend.

The data shows that in 2020, the import volume of barley, rice, rice, and soybean increased by 36.3%, 15.6% and 13.3% year-on-year respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate of the import volume was 20.4%, 15.3% and 11.8% respectively.

The substantial increase in imports of grains and products is mainly related to the increase in demand for feed grains driven by the rapid recovery of domestic breeding, especially pig breeding.

　　In the fourth quarter, the production price of agricultural products rose by 1.9% year-on-year, a drop of 12.9 percentage points from the third quarter, and the growth rate fell sharply for three consecutive quarters.

The decline in the price increase of agricultural products is mainly related to the continuous increase in live pig production and the decline in the price increase of pork.

　　From the perspective of the composition of agricultural products, the four major categories of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery show a pattern of "three ups and one down" in which prices for agriculture, forestry and fishery have risen, while prices for animal husbandry have fallen.

Specifically, in the fourth quarter, the price of agricultural (plantation) products increased by 7.9% year-on-year, an increase of 5.1 percentage points from the third quarter; the price of forestry products changed from a year-on-year decline of 3.0% in the third quarter to a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; the price of fishery products rose year-on-year 1.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over the third quarter.

The price of animal husbandry products changed from a 32.4% year-on-year increase in the third quarter to a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%.

　　From the perspective of major agricultural products, with the improvement in the supply of live pigs, the price of live pigs has begun to fall; affected by this, the price increase of cattle and sheep has also declined to varying degrees.

The production price of live pigs in the fourth quarter fell by 2.3% year-on-year, reversing the six consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth; the production price of live cattle rose by 5.3%, a 3.6% increase from the third quarter; the price of live sheep rose by 9.7%, a decrease of 0.6% .

Vegetable prices are still rising rapidly.

In the fourth quarter, vegetable prices rose by 8.2% year-on-year. Although the increase was 0.9% lower than that in the third quarter, it was still at a relatively high level.

　　From the perspective of the three major staple foods, the price of corn has risen sharply, driving the prices of wheat and rice to rise in varying degrees.

Data show that the price of corn in the fourth quarter rose 17.3% year-on-year, an increase of 8.8% over the third quarter; rice prices rose 6.0%, an increase of 3.7%; wheat prices rose 2.9%, compared with a decline of 1.2% in the previous quarter.

The increase in demand for feed grains also led to a rapid increase in soybean prices. In the fourth quarter, soybean prices rose by 17.1% year-on-year, an increase of 12.7 percentage points.

　　The volatility of live pig prices fell, and the feed ratio continued to decline.

In the fourth quarter, the pig feed ratio was 10.83:1, which continued to decline after a slight rebound in the third quarter.

On a monthly basis, the price of live pigs in the fourth quarter fell first and then rose.

With the continuous recovery of live pig production capacity in October, the supply and demand in the live pig market were relatively loose, and the price of live pigs continued to fall. In the first week of October, it was 34.16 yuan per kilogram and fell to 30.08 yuan per kilogram in the fourth week.

After that, as farmers' reluctance to sell and resist prices rose, the price of live pigs stopped falling and stabilized.

Entering December, with the approach of New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, terminal demand continued to improve, coupled with the spread of the epidemic, which led to restricted commercial circulation, and the price of live pigs rose again. In the fifth week of December, the price of live pigs rose to 35.06 yuan per kilogram.

Although the price of live pigs has rebounded, overall, the price of live pigs is still in a downward channel, and the overall price level in the fourth quarter was 4.75 yuan lower than that in the third quarter.

As the price of live pigs is still at a high level, the production capacity of live pigs is still in the expansion stage, leading to fluctuations in feed prices.

The feed price in the first week of October was 2.83 yuan per kilogram and rose to 3.09 yuan per kilogram in the last week of December.

Affected by this, the profitability of breeding pigs continued to decline.

　　Agricultural investment accelerates further

　　Labor productivity growth is approaching pre-epidemic levels

　　Under the background of normalized prevention and control of the epidemic, the order of production and life has gradually recovered, residents' consumption for dining out has steadily recovered, household consumption has gradually decreased, and retail sales of grain, oil and food have fallen, but they are basically close to the average level before the epidemic.

For the whole year of 2020, the retail sales of grains, oils and foods reflecting the final consumption amounted to 1.5283 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.7 percentage points from the third quarter.

　　The growth rate of agricultural income has further rebounded.

In 2020, the per capita net operating income of rural residents was 6,077 yuan, a nominal year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and the growth rate increased by 1.0 percentage point from the third quarter, and increased for three consecutive quarters.

The increase in farming income is mainly due to the bumper harvest of grain production, the restoration of the supply of live pigs, and the high prices of some agricultural products such as corn, pigs, cattle and sheep.

The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 17,131 yuan, an increase of 6.9%. After deducting price factors, the actual increase was 3.8%.

The nominal and actual growth rates of per capita disposable income of rural residents were 3.4 and 2.6% faster than that of urban residents, respectively, and the income gap between urban and rural residents was further narrowed.

　　The investment in pig breeding continued to drive the further acceleration of agricultural investment.

In 2020, the completed investment in fixed assets in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery increased by 19.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.8 percentage points from the third quarter, and the growth rate accelerated for three consecutive quarters.

Among them, the investment in pig breeding continued to promote the further acceleration of fixed asset investment in animal husbandry. The annual investment in animal husbandry increased by 92.1%, an increase of 12.1 percentage points from the cumulative growth rate of the first three quarters; fixed asset investment in agriculture (planting) continued to improve, The annual investment fell by 4.7% year-on-year, and the rate of decline was narrowing month by month; the rate of decline in fixed asset investment in forestry and fishery decreased by 3.3% and 17.9% year-on-year, and the rate of year-on-year decline first narrowed and then stabilized during the year, respectively in August and September Entered a relatively stable stage.

　　Financial support has been increased for "agriculture, rural areas and farmers".

The government attaches great importance to agricultural development and increases investment support in areas such as agricultural infrastructure and rural public services.

In 2020, fiscal expenditure on agriculture, forestry and water was 2,390.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, 1.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of national general public budget expenditures.

　　In 2020, the labor productivity of the primary industry was RMB 37758.0 per capita, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points higher than that in the third quarter. The growth rate was further improved and gradually approached the level before the epidemic.

Overall, in the fourth quarter, under the positive effects of various policies to stabilize production and supply, support agriculture and benefit agriculture, agricultural economic growth continued to accelerate, grain production was harvested, pig production capacity further recovered, agricultural product prices entered a moderate increase range, and agricultural investment With accelerated growth, the growth rate of agricultural income continued to pick up.

　　From the perspective of future expectations, 2021 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the first year of the new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. The work of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" has been transferred to the comprehensive promotion of rural revitalization and the acceleration of agricultural and rural modernization. In the new stage, the supply of important agricultural products such as grain will be further strengthened, the supply chain of the agricultural industry chain will be further upgraded, and the level of agricultural infrastructure construction and public services will be further improved.

In the short term, the price of live pigs and other agricultural products is running at a high level, the price of feed grain is rising, coupled with the tight global food supply and the continuous rise of international food prices, the internal growth momentum of agricultural production has further strengthened.

On the whole, the agricultural economy prosperity index is expected to increase further in the first half of 2021.

　　According to model calculations, the agricultural economy prosperity index in the first and second quarters of 2021 are 102.1 and 101.6, respectively, and the agricultural economic warning index is 96.7 and 100.0, respectively. The warning lights are expected to continue to operate in the normal "green light zone".

　　Although the improvement of the agricultural economy continues to consolidate, the problems restricting the high-quality development of agriculture are still prominent, the foundation of modern agricultural development is still weak, the level of agricultural socialization services is not high, and the ability of agricultural development to resist risks is insufficient.

In order to accelerate agricultural modernization, it is necessary to deepen the structural reform of the agricultural supply side, make up for the shortcomings of agricultural development, further extend the agricultural industry chain, smooth the supply chain, improve the value chain, and comprehensively improve the quality and efficiency of agricultural development.