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Hoteliers and restaurateurs, whose businesses have been closed for months, will hardly recognize themselves in the statement.
But for the vast majority of companies in the country, and thus also for many millions of employees, the following applies: The German economy is getting better through the pandemic than had long been feared.
Despite the second lockdown from the beginning of November, economic output rose by 0.3 percent in the months from October to December compared to the previous quarter, said the Federal Statistical Office.
As a result, the German economy contracted by 4.9 percent in 2020 as a whole.
This means that the minus is a little smaller than the Wiesbaden company initially reported in January.
At that time, they had assumed a straight five percent (5.0 percent) for 2020 - in the summer economists had even forecast a decline of more than seven percent.
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The small correction from minus 5.0 percent to minus 4.9 percent affects the state finances: the federal, state, local and social security sectors spent 139.6 billion euros more than they received last year.
In a first calculation, however, the authority had estimated the minus at 158.2 billion.
Only after unification was the minus greater
The almost 140 billion euros are still the second-highest minus since German reunification, only exceeded by the record minus of 1995, when the trust's debts were taken over into the state budget.
But the same applies to new borrowing: It is not as bad as it could have been.
The new figures mean that statisticians have now officially set the budget deficit based on total economic output of the state at 4.2 percent for 2020.
"With a deficit quota of 4.2 percent, Germany achieved an excellent value for the terrible economic year 2020", says Friedrich Heinemann, financial scientist at the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research (ZEW).
Source: WORLD infographic
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The deep recession of last year can hardly be seen at this level.
Compared to the double-digit deficit ratios in France and southern Europe, especially Italy and Spain, this is an extremely low value from Heinemann's point of view.
In any case, Germany need not fear problems with the rulers in Brussels.
The rules of the Stability and Growth Pact are suspended for 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic.
Therefore, the budget deficit can be more than three percent.
The limit value for the total debt of 60 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) currently does not play a role.
The percentage has risen from just under 60 percent in 2019 due to falling tax revenues and rising spending to over 70 percent last year.
Maastricht goals are a long way off
But Tobias Hentze, an expert on tax and financial policy at the Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft (IW), does not see this as an alarm signal.
“Even if these dimensions are impressive, the values are put into perspective when compared with the economic and financial crisis a good ten years ago,” says Hentze.
In 2010 the debt level had reached 82 percent.
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In the following economically golden years, the rate could then be pushed below the Maastricht limit thanks to steadily increasing tax revenues and falling unemployment rates and interest expenditure.
This laid the foundation for public finances, which remained robust even during the crisis.
If the federal government has its way, this is exactly what should happen again after the pandemic.
Source: WORLD infographic
Whether this will succeed in spite of the economic slump that has gone into the crisis is a matter of dispute among economists.
The President of the Ifo Institute, Clemens Fuest, sees “growing out of debt as the silver bullet”, as he said at a digital event organized by the Market Economy Foundation on the state of public finances.
In his assessment, however, the economic outlook in this country is currently darkening because Germany is currently being left behind when it comes to vaccinations.
Rapid deleveraging depends on growth
The previous forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to which Germany will almost reach a debt level of 60 percent of GDP again by 2024, is based on the assumption of a rapid and clear recovery.
Fuest warned that this was no longer to be expected because of the slow vaccination rate.
It will be correspondingly more difficult to reduce the debt.
This is where the debt brake comes into play.
Fuest currently considers the economic uncertainty to be so great that it is not yet possible to say whether the debt brake will have to be suspended again in the coming year.
The latest move by Chancellery Minister Helge Braun (CDU), who had propagated higher debts for several years and a corresponding amendment to the Basic Law, criticized Fuest as premature.
“You shouldn't commit yourself to going into more debt in the coming years than the debt brake rules allow,” warned the economist.
Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier (CDU) sees the current statistics from statisticians as "an important signal of confidence".
Whether there is actually a reason for this depends crucially on how long the lockdown lasts.
"We expect a difficult start in 2021"
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Experts are concerned that the contact restrictions in Germany could be extended well into spring due to a lack of vaccinations.
"Since the current winter lockdown is now significantly longer than the first one last spring and the momentum in the industry is likely to wane somewhat, we expect a difficult start with minus 1.5 to minus 3.0 percent," says the chief economist of the development bank KfW, Fritzi Koehler-Geib.
With increasing immunization, easing in the hospitality industry is likely to be possible in spring.
“As of the third quarter”, “the macroeconomically relevant restrictions could largely be lifted” and an economic growth spurt could begin.
The pre-crisis level is expected to be reached again in the fourth quarter.
For the full year 2021, the bank expects GDP growth of 3.3 percent "if the virus is successfully suppressed and a third wave is avoided".
Service industries more affected
The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) is also currently assuming a minus of around 1.5 percent in the first quarter.
Whereby this is not seen as an alarm signal.
"The high number of infections and the resulting restrictions are putting a strain on economic development - but not to the same extent as last spring, when production came to a virtual standstill in many areas," says DIW economic director Claus Michelsen.
Above all, industry has so far been robust through the winter.
But even in the service sector, the glass is rather half full.
Only those sectors that have to restrict their operations wholly or to a considerable extent by the state, suffered considerably from the measures.
Many other service providers are likely to "have adjusted to the situation in the meantime and are looking ahead more optimistically in view of the - albeit sluggish - progress in vaccination," says Michelsen.
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“Everything on shares” is the daily stock market shot from the WELT business editorial team. Every morning from 7 a.m. with the financial journalists Moritz Seyffarth and Holger Zschäpitz. For stock market experts and beginners. Subscribe to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Amazon Music and Deezer. Or directly via RSS feed.