Li Xiaohua: The evolution of global manufacturing structure and my country's countermeasures
The world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century.
A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation has given birth to new technologies, new industries, new business formats, and new models. Unilateralism and protectionism have risen. The comparative advantages of countries around the world have changed. Many factors have promoted significant adjustments in the global manufacturing industry.
The complex and changeable external environment has brought many challenges to the better development of my country's manufacturing industry.
At the same time, it should also be noted that my country’s manufacturing industry has obvious advantages in terms of industrial foundation, innovation capability, human resources, and market scale. This has helped my country’s manufacturing industry move towards high-quality development, climb towards the high end of the global value chain, and strengthen its presence in the global industry. The right to speak in China has laid a solid foundation.
In general, the evolution of the global manufacturing structure and the profound impact of technological revolution and industrial transformation provide important opportunities for my country's manufacturing industry to achieve and even lead in strategic emerging industries and future industries.
The global manufacturing value chain is "shortening"
In recent years, the global manufacturing value chain has shown a trend of "shortening".
The relevant research of the McKinsey Global Institute shows that the trade intensity (that is, the ratio of total exports to total output) in almost all commodity production value chains has declined, and in those value chains with the most complex and largest transactions, trade The decrease in intensity is particularly noticeable.
The "shortening" of the global manufacturing value chain is the result of multiple factors.
First, developing countries, especially China, have improved their innovation capabilities and domestic supporting capabilities. Many intermediate inputs have been produced domestically without the need to purchase on the international market.
Second, as economic growth and income levels increase, the domestic market in developing countries continues to expand, and more domestically manufactured goods can be sold locally rather than exported abroad.
Third, technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and smart manufacturing continue to mature. "Machine substitution" is more common. The capital and knowledge intensity of the industry continues to increase, making it easy to realize the industrial chain of global labor cost arbitrage. Layout within a country has also become profitable.
In addition, the undercurrent of “reverse globalization” and the “return” of manufacturing industries in some countries have also had a certain impact on the “shortening” of the global value chain; the proximity of production to the market has brought about an increase in the response speed of the supply chain and the local value chain. Many factors such as the improvement of supply chain resilience caused by globalization have also played a role in the "shortening" of the global manufacturing value chain.
Changes in the industrial structure profoundly affect the development of my country's manufacturing industry
At present, the international economy, science and technology, culture, security, and politics are undergoing profound adjustments.
Changes in the development trend of the global manufacturing structure have a major impact on the development of my country's manufacturing industry.
First, changes in the factor endowments of various countries have promoted the continued development of the "Goose Array Model".
The famous "flying geese pattern" reveals the characteristics of the echelon transfer of labor-intensive industries from developed countries to underdeveloped and least developed countries.
Developed countries have the highest level of development, which is the main driving force for the transfer of industries between countries. As the cost of production factors rises, developed countries gradually lose their advantages in labor-intensive industries, thus promoting the development of labor-intensive industries to lower costs. China transfers.
Currently, the "Goose Array Model" continues to develop among developing countries.
Driven by the development of labor-intensive industries, developing countries’ economies continue to grow and labor wages continue to increase, and their low-cost labor advantages will gradually weaken, thus promoting the transfer of labor-intensive industries to lower-cost developing countries. It is the general trend of global transfer and distribution of labor-intensive industries under the current technological level.
Since the reform and opening up, especially since joining the WTO, my country has conformed to the trend of international industrial division of labor reform and industrial transfer, taking full advantage of labor to undertake international industrial transfer, and becoming an important labor-intensive industry and link production and export base in the world.
As my country’s economy continues to maintain medium-to-high-speed growth and residents’ income levels continue to increase, the cost advantage of labor is gradually weakening. If the efficiency of “machine substitution” and the capital intensity of labor-intensive industries do not increase significantly, then my country’s labor-intensive industries Labor-intensive links in industries and value chains will also shift to low-cost developing countries.
It must also be noted that the increase in the income level of my country's residents means that domestic demand will further expand, which will promote the continuous growth of demand for higher quality and higher performance products and services, which will become an important driving force for the upgrading of my country's manufacturing industry.
In particular, the continuous emergence of the role of the domestic big cycle will increase the attraction to international industrial capital, thereby further promoting the continuous improvement of the development level of my country's domestic capital, technology and knowledge-intensive manufacturing.
Second, the in-depth development of the new technological revolution will intensify global competition in the high-tech field.
Strategic emerging industries and future industries represent the development direction of industries, have huge development potential, and are directly related to a country's future economic growth and its right to speak in the global industrial division of labor system.
If you seize the opportunity of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation to achieve breakthroughs in strategic emerging industries and future industries, then the latecomer countries will further narrow the gap with the developed countries. On the contrary, the latter countries will spend more The price is to achieve catch-up in the high-tech field.
Therefore, in order to consolidate their position in the high-tech field, developed countries have not only paid close attention to the layout of science and technology and industrial development, but also stepped up the suppression and containment of latecomers.
As a key part of the global industrial chain supply chain, the intensification of external competition will certainly create pressure and challenges for the development of related industries in my country, but it can also force related companies to find new sources of supply in the domestic market. The product provides market space for continuous improvement and perfection in application.
Third, the layout of the global supply chain has been adjusted rapidly, and the trend of diversification, regionalization and localization is obvious.
The global industrial division of labor follows the logic of giving priority to efficiency.
Under the premise of considering the transaction costs of transportation and communication, the global value chain is fragmented, and each link is allocated to the region with the most suitable input factor endowment, so as to minimize the cost of final product delivery, which forms a developed The division of labor in the global value chain where the country is engaged in R&D, design and brand marketing, and the developing countries are engaged in processing and assembly.
Although under the conditions of a high degree of global division of labor, the supply chain occasionally encounters local problems caused by natural disasters, trade conflicts and other reasons, but on the whole it can maintain smooth operation.
However, the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is large and lasting, and its impact on the supply chain has become more serious and lasting. The importance of supply chain security has become prominent.
The global supply chain has to go through many factories and many transportation links in many countries, so when facing the impact of the epidemic, the vulnerability caused by long spatial distance and many links is exposed.
Many countries and multinational companies have begun to reflect on the risks brought by the over-concentration of supply chains, and consider pushing companies in the supply chain to return to the local area and to promote the diversification of supply sources.
my country is the world's largest industrial country, and some developed countries and multinational companies are considering cultivating new sources of supply outside of China.
However, the realization of the diversification and localization of the supply chain is affected by many factors, and the investment is large and takes a long time.
At present, with a complete industrial system and a huge domestic market, my country will continue to be a major component of the global production system.
The development direction of my country's manufacturing industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan
The development of my country’s manufacturing industry faces many challenges. However, the ultra-large-scale market, the ever-increasing innovation capabilities, the sound industrial system, and the vigorous development of the digital economy have helped my country’s manufacturing industry to better cope with new challenges and become a major player in the global manufacturing industry. Occupying a favorable position in the adjustment provides a solid foundation.
In the face of complex internal and external situations, it is necessary to further adjust the development direction of my country's manufacturing industry in the global industrial system. It is necessary to have strategic determination and timely response to promote the high-quality development of manufacturing.
On the one hand, we must persist in expanding opening up.
The trend of globalization is irreversible. The division of labor within industries and products has been developed for decades, and many industrial chains have achieved a high degree of globalization.
No country has advantages in all links of all industrial chains. Only by integrating global resources can it produce the most internationally competitive products.
In this regard, we must persist in expanding opening up, be good at coordinating the overall domestic and international situations, and make good use of both domestic and international markets and resources.
On the other hand, we must insist on self-reliance.
Exerting comparative advantages and participating in the global division of labor is the economic logic of industrial globalization.
But we must also be aware that at present, non-economic factors have an increasing impact on the global industrial chain supply chain.
In this regard, we must enhance the safety and stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain, make up for the "short boards" in some key links, and forge the "long boards" in some key links.
Draw lessons from the hollowing out of industries in developed countries, maintain the production, innovation, and upgrade capabilities and appropriate capacity of labor-intensive industries, and strengthen the security capabilities of the domestic industrial chain supply chain.
Specifically, we need to work hard in the following aspects.
One is to continue to increase R&D investment.
The technological gap between my country's manufacturing industry and developed countries is largely due to the short industrialization time and insufficient accumulation of scientific and technological capabilities.
Therefore, whether it is to enhance the basic capabilities of the industry, solve the "stuck neck" problem, or forging technology and the industry "long board", it is necessary to further increase R&D investment.
At the same time, it is also necessary to encourage enterprises, social organizations and individuals to increase investment in technological innovation through measures such as removing institutional barriers that restrict technological innovation and strengthening intellectual property protection.
The second is to deploy future industries as early as possible.
The industry of the future represents the direction of future industrial development and contains new momentum to promote economic development in the future.
The industry in the future is very uncertain, and all countries are at the "starting line" close to each other, which is an important opportunity for latecomers to catch up.
It is necessary to strengthen strategic research on forward-looking technologies and future industrial development directions, increase investment in research and development of forward-looking technologies, actively cultivate early-stage markets, and guide enterprises to carry out the engineering and industrialization of forward-looking technologies.
The third is to accelerate the pace of negotiating and signing free trade agreements.
Continuously enhance the attractiveness of my country's ultra-large market, complete industrial facilities, and strong manufacturing capabilities to transnational capital, deepen the reform of domestic systems and mechanisms, and integrate with international trade rules, and promote the opening of the market from the flow of commodities and factors to the institutional opening of rules change.
Actively promote the signing of higher standard free trade agreements and regional trade agreements with trading partners; further deepen industrial chain cooperation with geographically adjacent regions such as East Asia and Southeast Asia; strengthen cooperation in production capacity with countries along the "Belt and Road" to improve China The global industrial chain layout of the manufacturing industry.
The fourth is to promote the digital transformation of the industry.
Promote the construction of new infrastructure with digital technology as the core, while accelerating the development and maturity of cutting-edge digital technology, while laying a solid foundation for digitalization of my country's industrial upgrading.
Give full play to my country’s advantages in the field of digital technology and digital economy, encourage digital technology companies to cooperate with manufacturing companies; formulate smart manufacturing technical specifications, unify data format standards, promote data openness, and develop industrial Internet and other manufacturing digital platforms; support manufacturing The digital transformation of enterprises will enhance the supply capabilities of service-oriented manufacturing such as remote maintenance, personalized customization, and value-added services.
(The author is a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)