Consumption during the Spring Festival of the Ox to catch up with the recovery of the previous year and return to the fast lane?
What are the characteristics of consumption during the Spring Festival this year?
What factors have promoted the realization of a "good start", and can some new consumption trends formed during the epidemic continue?
In response, a reporter from the Beijing News interviewed Dong Chao, director of the Institute of Circulation and Consumption Research, Ministry of Commerce, Zhao Ping, vice president of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade Research Institute, and Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at the Suning Institute of Finance.
In the opinion of experts, under the epidemic situation, consumer behaviors have diverged. Some consumers have become more cautious and their saving concept has increased. However, some consumers emphasize timely pleasure and their propensity to consume has further increased.
In addition, in 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption will be slower than the recovery of the overall economy. Looking forward to 2021, the previously suppressed tourism and aviation consumption will usher in a strong rebound, and catering consumption will continue to recover. Automobile consumption and rural areas The consumption potential of China is expected to become the main force in the release of my country's consumption potential.
Talk about a good start
Selectivity and flexibility enhance income and boost consumption confidence
The Beijing News: How do you view consumption during the Spring Festival this year?
Dong Chao: It can be found that the prevention and control of the epidemic during the Spring Festival and the "tricks" to promote consumption go hand in hand. Although the increase in the number of "in-situ Chinese New Year" has an impact on transportation and tourism consumption, consumer vouchers are issued in many places and various industries. The Spring Festival does not close, and the sufficient supply of all kinds of daily necessities will lay a solid foundation for stabilizing, improving consumption and expanding domestic demand in 2021.
Due to the new trend of "Chinese New Year in situ" during the Spring Festival this year, new types of consumption have also sprung up. Online shopping, food delivery, and express logistics have all increased significantly compared with previous Spring Festival. Local travel and suburban travel have become important holiday leisure activities. It has become an indispensable "spiritual consumption" for everyone during the New Year, and the box office of the national movie on the first day of the new year breaks a single-day box office record in the global single market.
On the whole, the "good start" of consumption during the Spring Festival reflects the increased choice and flexibility of residents' consumption, which has great potential to promote consumption and broad space for expanding domestic demand.
Beijing News: What are the driving factors behind the bright data?
Zhao Ping: There are three main reasons for the outstanding consumption performance during the Spring Festival. The first is that income expectations are improving and people are more willing to consume.
In 2020, income indicators and employment indicators have brought people confidence in consumption.
In 2020, the national per capita disposable income has achieved positive growth, and the employment stabilization policy directly related to the income sources of ordinary people has continued to advance. The average urban survey unemployment rate last year was 5.6%, which was lower than the expected target of around 6%. Enhance people's confidence in consumption.
Coupled with the stimulus of issuing consumer vouchers, red envelopes and promotional activities in various places, everyone's willingness to spend during the Spring Festival has increased significantly.
Second, market supply is guaranteed and consumption is more convenient.
According to the characteristics of the holiday market and the possible impact of changes in the epidemic prevention and control situation on the daily necessities market, various localities have formulated plans in advance to ensure supply, and according to the individual needs of different consumer groups, increase inventory and enrich product categories.
Ensuring an adequate supply of major daily necessities such as grain, oil, meat, eggs, vegetables, milk, etc., can well meet the needs of the people during the Spring Festival.
Moreover, many consumers responded to the local New Year initiative, shopping malls, supermarkets, catering companies did not close, and the opening rate hit a record high.
The Spring Festival files are rich in content, meeting the different viewing needs of audiences of different ages.
Online New Year's Day and non-stop express delivery have increased online and offline consumption choices and are conducive to unlocking consumption potential.
In addition, the epidemic prevention and control are effective, and people dare to consume.
In line with the prevention and control of the epidemic, scanning codes, temperature measurement, and wearing masks have become necessary guarantees for consumption during the Spring Festival. Appointment, limit, and peak shifting have become standard features of Spring Festival tourism, and people can feel confident to consume when they go to different places.
Talk about new trends
Takeaway and online service consumption catalyzes the sinking market potential
Beijing News: The epidemic has brought many new changes to the consumer market, can it be sustained?
Zhao Ping: I am more concerned about two new changes: takeaway and home delivery services that combine the two trends of home economy and online shopping will receive more attention in the future.
The other is online service consumption. After the outbreak, not only the consumption of online physical goods has maintained a high growth rate, but also the explosive growth of online service consumption. Online education, telemedicine, cloud fitness, and online office have rapidly become popular.
The epidemic has accelerated these two major changes, and these changes will continue to be an important development direction for consumption in the future.
On the one hand, as the income level of residents increases, consumption upgrades show two major characteristics: quality and intangibility.
At present, China's per capita GDP has exceeded 10,000 U.S. dollars, and material and spiritual needs are growing day by day. This is manifested in the increasing demand for quality goods and services, and the pursuit of a more quality life through consumer behavior.
With regard to the structure of commodity consumption and service consumption, the growth rate of intangible service consumption and its proportion in per capita consumption expenditure will continue to increase.
In 2019, my country's per capita service consumption expenditure reached 9886 yuan, an increase of 12.6% over the previous year, accounting for 45.9% of the per capita consumption expenditure of residents.
On the other hand, although my country's e-commerce originated from commodity consumption, with the development of e-commerce platforms, more and more types of services are sold on the platform, from hotels, air tickets, and ticket reservations to education, culture, entertainment, and fitness. With the continuous enrichment, the service consumption market is also continuously subdivided.
Therefore, the epidemic has catalyzed the consumption of online services. All kinds of home services allow people to enjoy services without leaving home. Online service consumption will become an important growth direction.
Beijing News: The sinking market has become an important consumer army?
Fu Yifu: In recent years, there have been more discussions about the awakening of the sinking market, but the data during the Spring Festival once again reflects that the residents of the sinking market have relatively strong consumption willingness and spending power, and there is still a large consumption potential to be tapped.
From a magnified perspective, in recent years, the GDP growth rate of third-tier and lower cities is generally higher than that of first-tier and second-tier cities, and the growth rate of per capita disposable income of residents has increased.
In other words, after years of development, the economic fundamentals of the sinking market and the consumption potential of residents have changed from the past.
In the future, whether it is from the perspective of promoting consumption or tapping the potential of economic growth, cities below the third tier will be a very important link, which is definitely a major trend.
In addition, third-tier and lower cities, including rural areas, account for over 90% of the land area and over 70% of the population. It can be said that this is a very large market. If these areas and populations can be further developed, it will be important for future consumption in China. Growth, expansion of domestic demand, and smoothing of internal circulation can all play a very important role.
Talk about promoting consumption
Service consumption has not yet "recovered blood", reducing the burden allows the people to spend money without worry
Beijing News: Although China's economy will achieve positive growth in 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods will still fall by 3.9% year-on-year. Why is the recovery of consumption slower than the recovery of the overall economy?
Zhao Ping: The main reason for the slower recovery of consumption is that service consumption has not yet returned to the normalized growth range.
Since July last year, with the recovery of the consumer market, the monthly growth rate of national retail sales has turned from negative to positive. After more than half a year of recovery, by December 2020, retail sales of goods increased by 5.2% year-on-year.
During the golden week of the Spring Festival this year, consumption achieved rapid growth, even exceeding the same period in 2019, indicating that China's consumption has entered a normal growth track.
But from the perspective of service consumption, although the national catering industry achieved positive growth in December last year, the growth rate was only 0.4%, which has not yet returned to the normalized growth range.
Moreover, due to the needs of epidemic prevention and control, service consumption places such as movie theaters, performance venues, and sports fitness also need to limit current, and inter-provincial tourism and inbound tourism have not returned to normal, thus restricting the speed of recovery.
With the recovery of related consumption in the catering industry and other service industries, consumption growth is expected to increase further in the future.
Beijing News: In my country, the average contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is about 60% from 2013 to 2019. If there is still a lot of room for improvement compared with the 70% and 80% levels of advanced economies, how about Can we further increase the consumption power of residents?
Zhao Ping: First, we must accelerate the reform of income distribution and steadily increase the income level of residents.
A lot of service consumption is non-essential consumption, and income elasticity is greater, that is, the higher the income level, the stronger the demand for service consumption.
Therefore, on the one hand, we must increase support for employment, improve the wage system, improve the mechanism for reasonable wage growth, and increase the proportion of labor remuneration in the primary distribution.
On the other hand, it is necessary to gradually narrow the income gap, improve the redistribution mechanism, increase the intensity and accuracy of taxation, social security, and transfer payments, and strive to increase the income of low-income groups, expand middle-income groups, and enhance the consumption capacity of the whole society.
Secondly, it is necessary to increase investment channels so that ordinary people can obtain a reasonable return on investment and restrict various speculative behaviors.
Third, it is necessary to reduce the burden on the people, increase the support of public services, and reduce worries about the future. There is no need to over-saving for old-age care, education, and medical care and consume with confidence.
Beijing News: What measures can promote consumption recovery in the future?
Dong Chao: In order to further respond to the negative impact of the epidemic on consumption, these measures can be considered, including increasing the efforts of automobiles to promote consumption and stabilizing consumption expectations.
The comprehensive driving effect of automobile consumption is second only to that of housing, but the existing traffic and purchase restrictions restrict automobile consumption. Therefore, seizing the opportunity to fully release the previously suppressed consumer demand can drive the consumption growth upward and stabilize consumption. expected.
In addition, to build a business town as a starting point, tap the potential of rural consumption.
To build a small town with a certain concentration of consumption and a wide range of consumption radiation as a key carrier to improve rural consumption levels and promote employment, increase modern supply chain empowerment and brand empowerment, so that rural residents can enjoy the same experience as urban residents. High-quality consumer products and services of the same price and quality; create an international consumption environment and keep more of the consumption upgrade dividends in the country.
It can vigorously optimize local supply so that consumers can enjoy the same international level of goods, services and consumption environment in China. At present, the potential for consumption return has initially emerged. During the Spring Festival holiday, Hainan outlying island duty-free shops have only 7 days of sales. Over 1.5 billion yuan.
Looking forward to 2021, many new consumption concepts and new consumption scenarios arising from the epidemic will also continue to affect my country's consumer market. It is believed that under the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the previously suppressed tourism and aviation consumption will usher in a strong rebound Food and beverage consumption will continue to recover, and automobile consumption and the consumption potential of rural areas have also become the main force in the release of my country's consumption potential.
Beijing News reporter Pan Yichun