Against the backdrop of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the size of the global debt will continue to grow at a high rate in the coming years.
So, over the next year and a half, the figure may additionally increase by $ 19 trillion.
Experts from the American Institute of International Finance (IIF) told RT about this.
“We estimate that over the next 15-18 months the global debt will exceed $ 300 trillion,” said Emre Tiftik, director of research for sustainable development at IIF, to RT.
Global debt is the total debt owed by people, companies, financial institutions, and governments in all countries.
As previously calculated by IIF experts, in 2020 the figure increased by $ 24 trillion at once and for the first time during the entire observation period reached $ 281 trillion.
Today the corresponding amount is more than 3.5 times the size of the global economy.
“In 2020, the ratio of world debt to GDP grew by 35 percentage points and amounted to more than 355% of global GDP.
The growth of this indicator turned out to be much higher than during the global financial crisis of 2008, ”the organization's research says.
More than half of the increase in the indicator fell on government debt.
So, in 2020, the volume of borrowings from governments increased by $ 12 trillion - up to $ 82 trillion (105% of world GDP).
“Against the background of falling consumer spending and investment activity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the governments of many countries were forced to go for a sharp increase in government spending.
In this way, it was possible to support aggregate consumption and mitigate the effects of the crisis.
The sources of financing for these expenses were just reserves and borrowings, "Mikhail Dorofeev, chairman of the Obnovlenie CPC, told RT.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the volume of global GDP decreased by 3.5%.
According to the organization's forecast, in 2021 the global economy will recover and grow by 5.5%, and in 2022 - by 4.2%.
Meanwhile, maintaining stable growth rates will require additional cash injections and debt buildup, says Mikhail Dorofeev.
“Moreover, we saw that the world's central banks went on a sharp cut in key rates and the buyout of assets from the market.
As a result, conditions for refinancing the current debt or increasing it have become extremely attractive for the corporate sector and the population, ”the expert added.
According to the IIF forecast, in 2021, government debt could increase to $ 92 trillion.
At the same time, the need to service growing public debts will increase the burden on the budgets of countries.
In such conditions, the world economy becomes more vulnerable to possible future crises, experts of the organization believe.
“In fact, the world economy now exists on credit.
Debts three times exceed the real volumes of production and sale of goods and services.
In order to prevent the bubble from collapsing, further infusions of money are needed, which, among other things, are taken through new loans, "said Anastasia Uskova, general director of the Rocket Work platform, in a conversation with RT.
"Economical strategy"
At the moment, the most significant debt burden is experienced by the United States (372% of GDP), the countries of the eurozone (422%), Great Britain (506%) and Japan (557%).
In addition, South Korea also has high volumes of debt (363%).
It is noteworthy that against this background, the total volume of Russia's debt remains significantly lower and is close to the mark of 146% of GDP.
Moreover, the debt of the Russian government is only 18.6% of GDP, compared with 128% in the United States or 120% in Europe.
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The purposeful preservation of the national debt at a low level remains one of the key directions of the budgetary strategy of the Russian authorities.
This was told to RT by the head of the laboratory for the analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Institute for Applied Economic Research, RANEPA, Alexander Abramov.
“This is undoubtedly the impact of the 1998 default.
That crisis had a huge impact on our society and laid the foundations for the state's economical budgetary strategy, ”the expert noted.
According to him, before the pandemic, Russia's national debt remained even lower due to the budget surplus.
Thus, treasury revenues exceeded expenditures, and the authorities sent part of the profits from oil sales to the National Welfare Fund (NWF).
“During the pandemic, the government decided to support consumer demand with targeted measures and implement separate programs to help vulnerable social groups.
Not only we adhered to this strategy, but also China and some other countries.
Due to this, Russia increased its national debt very moderately, ”the economist said.
Note, according to the draft federal budget for 2021-2023, over the next three years, the ratio of public debt to Russia's GDP will increase to 21.4%.
However, such growth is not dangerous, Abramov is sure.
“This is a moderate increase, which means that the state will return to the budgetary rule and the return of budget expenditures to normal levels.
At the same time, attracting additional funds through borrowing will partly help solve the problem of citizens' incomes, stimulate their return to growth, ”the expert concluded.