China-Singapore Jingwei Client, February 23 (Wu Xiaowei) With the release of the Central Document No. 1 in 2021, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs gave a detailed introduction on the comprehensive promotion of rural revitalization and accelerated agricultural and rural modernization. Many brokerages also gave Investment analysis, what are the future opportunities for agricultural stocks?

2021 Central No. 1 Document Released Strong Agricultural Sector

  On the 21st, the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Comprehensively Promoting Rural Revitalization and Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization", that is, the No. 1 Central Document issued in 2021.

  Following the Central Economic Work Conference, the No. 1 document of the Central Committee will be proposed again in 2021 to fight the battle for the seed industry.

The document clarifies that the third survey and collection of crop germplasm resources, livestock and poultry germplasm resources will be accelerated, and the construction of national crop, livestock, poultry, and marine fishery biological germplasm resources will be strengthened.

The document also mentions speeding up agricultural modernization.

In-depth implementation of important agricultural product protection strategies, improve the responsibility system of the governor for food security and the mayor responsibility system of the "vegetable basket" to ensure the safety of food, cotton, oil, sugar, meat and other supplies.

  Shennong Technology's time-sharing chart source: Wind screenshot

  On the 22nd, the A-share agricultural planting sector opened higher across the board.

As of the close, Shennong Technology's daily limit, agricultural products, Huaying Agriculture, Jinjian Rice, Nongfa Seed and other stocks followed up.

What signals did the Central Document No. 1 convey this year?

Which segments of the agricultural concept will continue to benefit in the future?

Fight the seed industry turnaround

  At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the 22nd, Tang Renjian, director of the Central Agricultural Office and Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, gave a detailed introduction.

In terms of ensuring food security, he pointed out that the fundamental way to increase food production is to rely on science and technology for yields and benefits, insist on self-reliance and self-reliance in agricultural science and technology, and resolve to fight the seed industry's turnaround and strengthen it with modern agricultural technology and material equipment. Support for food security.

  Tang Renjian, Director of the Central Agricultural Office and Minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Source:

  At the same time, Tang Renjian made it clear that the development of the seed market and seed industry is not as severe as some outsiders believed in the previous paragraph.

But on the other hand, we are indeed far behind the advanced level of foreign countries in some varieties, fields and links.

"In short, we have no problem with regard to the existence and survival of some varieties; but in terms of whether there are many varieties, we do have a big gap. What to do? It is to fight the seed industry to turn around."

  How to fight the seed industry to turn around and fight?

Zhang Taolin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that in general, the safety of our country's agricultural seed is guaranteed and the risks are controllable.

At present, our country's crops, especially grain seeds, can be solved by ourselves. The planting area of ​​varieties independently selected and bred in our country accounts for more than 95%, and we have achieved "China's grain is mainly grown in China."

  Zhang Taolin mentioned that the Central Committee’s No. 1 document has made top-level design and system deployment for the turnaround of the seed industry. It involves protection of germplasm resources, scientific research on breeding, and market management of the seed industry, which are all links of the entire seed industry chain.

In general, we must adhere to the bottom line thinking and problem orientation, focus on the national food security and the "three guarantees" requirements of ensuring the quantity, diversity, and quality of important agricultural and sideline products, follow the law of innovation and development of the seed industry, break stuck points and make up for shortcomings. Board, strong advantages.

  "The seed industry enterprises must become stronger. I think this is a key subject for the development of our seed industry technology, including the entire seed industry. A group of superior enterprises must be selected for key support, deepen the reform of the seed industry's decentralization, management and service, and promote production, education and research. Combining, breeding, propagation and promotion, establish a sound commercial breeding system." Zhang Taolin said.

Protect the basic production capacity of live pigs

  As the focus of people's livelihood, the production capacity and supply of agricultural products such as vegetables and meat have always attracted attention.

Regarding this, Tang Renjian said that this year’s No. 1 Central Document attaches great importance to the protection of the basic production capacity of live pigs and a sound long-term mechanism for the stable and orderly development of the pig industry.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will closely monitor the dynamics of production development, and study specific methods to stabilize and reserve production capacity to ensure the stable development of the pig industry.

Regarding vegetables, we will continue to increase efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply.

New latitude and longitude in the data map

  "Pigs, cattle, sheep and other livestock and poultry and some characteristic aquatic product sources are guaranteed based on the domestic basis. Now the core species of livestock, poultry and aquatic products have reached 75% and 85%, respectively. These are all for the stable production of grain and important agricultural and sideline products. The supply provides the key guarantee and support." Zhang Taolin said.

  Tang Renjian also pointed out that last year the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs took a number of measures to support the restoration of live pig production capacity and stabilize live pig production and market supply.

As of the end of last year, it had recovered to more than 92%, exceeding expectations by 12 percentage points.

As the new live pig production capacity continues to be realized as pork production, the most tight period in the pork market has passed, and the supply-demand relationship will become more relaxed in the later period.

It is expected that the first quarter of this year, around March, will increase by about 40% over the same period last year.

By the second quarter, around June, the pig stock can be restored to the level of the normal year in 2017.

In the second half of the year, live pig production and pork supply will gradually return to normal annual levels.

Brokerage: optimistic about planting and pig breeding

  In response to the No. 1 Central Document in 2021, a number of brokerage research reports made analysis, focusing on planting and pig breeding.

  CITIC Securities pointed out that the Central No. 1 Document in 2021 has three major changes in agricultural production compared with the past. Food security issues are highly improved, the seed industry is described in separate paragraphs for the first time, and the pig breeding policy has changed from short-term production capacity recovery to long-term healthy development. .

We are optimistic about the four main investment lines of planting, seed industry, pig breeding, and agricultural performance stocks.

Data source:

  Guotai Junan believes that the No. 1 Central Document of 2021 will separately list "Fighting the Seed Industry's Turnover" and expand the relevant statements of the Central Economic Work Conference in 2020. In the future, technologies and industries related to breeding will become agriculture. An important incremental investment direction in the field.

The fiscal policy in 2021 will be more inclined to support the rural revitalization strategy, and through the shortcomings of rural logistics infrastructure to clear the blockage of production factors and agricultural and sideline products to participate in the national economic cycle.

In the future, county towns will take on more important functions of promoting rural infrastructure construction and providing basic public services for farmers. Rural gigabit optical network and 5G construction, as well as the construction of schools and hospitals in county towns or central towns, may accelerate.

  Haitong Securities mentioned that the release of the No. 1 Central Document in 2021 will specifically emphasize the importance of the seed industry for the first time, focusing on the breakthroughs in the development of domestic biological breeding and genetically modified technology, as well as the A-share related seed industry technology sector, and also focusing on the post-breeding cycle Industry opportunities.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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