Local fiscal revenue ushered in a "good start", and many provinces gave annual growth forecasts
Judging from the budget reports of most provinces this year, most localities predict that this year's income will grow at a medium to low rate, not exceeding 7%.
Affected by factors such as the impact of the epidemic, local fiscal revenues across the country fell slightly last year, but as the economy has steadily recovered, local fiscal revenues ushered in a "good start" in January this year.
A reporter from China Business News combed through the public data of some provinces and found that in January this year, most provinces achieved growth in local fiscal revenue, and many of them grew at double-digit rates, reflecting the steady recovery of the economy.
However, judging from the budget reports of most provinces this year, most localities predict that this year's income will grow at a medium to low rate, not exceeding 7%.
Income "good start"
Affected by the impact of the epidemic and large-scale tax and fee cuts, local fiscal revenue across the country rarely fell by 0.9% year-on-year last year.
However, from a quarterly perspective, after the sharp decline in revenue in the first quarter of last year, as the resumption of work and production continued in the second quarter, the decline in local fiscal revenue narrowed, and revenue growth was achieved in the third and fourth quarters.
At the beginning of this year, local governments continued their revenue growth momentum.
According to public data from some provinces, most localities achieved growth in fiscal revenue in January, even as high as double digits.
According to official data from various localities, the general public budget revenue of Shandong Province, a major financial province, was 92.6 billion yuan in January, an increase of 12.3% over the same period last year.
The fiscal revenue of 16 cities in Shandong province all achieved positive growth in January, and the revenue growth of five cities including Jinan and Qingdao was double-digit.
The general public budget revenue of Fujian Province in January increased by 10.8% year-on-year, and all of its 9 cities and 1 districts achieved positive revenue growth, achieving a "good start".
In addition, cities with double-digit fiscal revenue growth in January include Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Chengdu, Changzhou, and Taiyuan, while Shenzhen and Kunming achieved single-digit revenue growth.
Of course, there are also some places where income has fallen. For example, Hohhot's income fell slightly in January.
Shi Wenwen, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, told China Business News that the epidemic began to break out in January last year, which had an impact on fiscal revenue.
Affected by the relatively low base in the same period last year and the current steady economic recovery, local fiscal revenues maintained growth in January this year.
This also reflects that the economy this year is significantly better than the same period.
January is the traditional month for paying taxes.
According to central bank data, fiscal deposits increased by 1.170 billion yuan in January this year, an increase of 769.8 billion yuan over the same period last year.
Although a local cluster of epidemics occurred in my country in January, the production and operation of some enterprises were temporarily affected. In addition, the traditional off-season of the manufacturing industry around the Spring Festival, the expansion of production and operation activities of enterprises weakened in January, but China's manufacturing purchasing manager index, non-manufacturing Both the industrial business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index continued to remain above the prosperity and decline lines, which supported the growth of fiscal revenue.
Compared with the general increase in local fiscal revenue in January, many local fiscal expenditures have declined.
For example, Shandong's general public budget expenditures fell 14.3% year-on-year in January, while expenditures in Suzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Taiyuan also fell by double digits.
The Shandong Provincial Department of Finance explained that the decline in fiscal expenditures in January was mainly due to the Spring Festival in February this year, and related expenditures were postponed with the holidays.
Shi Zhengwen said that last year's Spring Festival was in January, and during the Spring Festival period related financial subsidies and other people's livelihood expenditures were relatively high, so the expenditure base in January last year was relatively high, resulting in a decline in expenditure in January this year.
The Spring Festival this year is in February, and related expenditures will occur in February, so expenditures are postponed.
However, there are also some places where fiscal expenditures maintained rapid growth in January. For example, Shenzhen's general public budget expenditures in January increased by 14.2% year-on-year.
Mid-to-low growth in annual income
Wang Zhenyu, Dean of the Local Finance Research Institute of Liaoning University, analyzed the China Business News and considered that some of the income at the end of last year was put into the database at the beginning of this year and other incomparable factors. Compared with the data in January, it is more meaningful to observe longer-period data.
Recently, local governments have successively disclosed this year's budget report. According to the report's forecast of this year's income, compared with the high growth rate of income at the beginning of the year, the local government's forecast of annual income is calm, and the overall growth rate will still be low to medium.
According to the forecasted growth rate of general public budget revenue of 20 provinces this year by a reporter from China Business News, except for Hubei and Tianjin, which saw a sharp decline in revenue last year, the revenue growth rate this year is expected to reach double digits, and the revenue growth rate of other places is expected to not exceed 7%. .
Among them, Guangdong Province, which has the largest fiscal revenue scale last year, expects revenue growth of 5% this year, Jiangsu, which has strong fiscal power, is 4.5%, Zhejiang is 6%, and Shanghai and Beijing are both 3%.
A number of fiscal and taxation experts analyzed by CBN reporters that due to the steady recovery of China's economy and rapid growth, most local fiscal revenues can achieve growth.
However, the recovery of the world economy is still unstable and unbalanced, and the current situation of epidemic prevention and control is still complicated and severe, with uncertainties.
In addition, in order to compensate for the reduction in tax revenue last year, many localities increased their income base last year by increasing the profits of state-owned enterprises and disposing of stock assets. This year, China's continued tax reduction and fee reduction will bring a certain degree of taxes and fees. To reduce revenue, taking these factors into consideration, the pressure on local fiscal revenues to increase is greater, and the medium-to-low growth rate is expected to be maintained.
Shi Zhengwen stated that due to the continuation of some tax and fee reduction policies and the continued force of institutional tax and fee reduction policies, tax and fee reductions this year will still maintain a certain degree of strength, which will also result in a reduction in fiscal revenue.
This also reflects the active fiscal policy, which stimulates market vitality by reducing the burden on enterprises and promotes healthy economic growth.
Although the fiscal revenue situation this year is better than last year, many believe that the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure this year is still relatively large.
For example, Dai Yunlong, director of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Finance, said in his budget report for this year that fiscal revenue growth this year is still under greater pressure, and fiscal expenditures still need to maintain a certain intensity. Therefore, the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure this year is still prominent.
The Zhejiang Provincial Department of Finance also analyzed that fiscal revenue this year is still facing greater pressure; fiscal expenditures have increased rigidly, and the implementation of tax and fee reduction policies also requires financial support, and a "tight balance" of fiscal revenue and expenditure will exist for a long time.
According to Wu Sufang, director of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Finance, the tight balance of low-speed operation of local fiscal revenue and rapid growth of expenditure in 2021 will become more prominent.
Author: Chen Yi-Journal