Freezing effect: the price of Brent oil has exceeded $ 65 per barrel for the first time since January 2020

On Thursday, February 18, world oil prices renewed their annual high.

During the trades, quotations of raw materials of the Brent benchmark and the American WTI grade grew by 1.8% - to $ 65.5 and $ 62.27 per barrel, respectively.

Values ​​are the highest since January 2020.

According to experts, one of the main reasons for the record rise in prices was the abnormally cold weather in the US state of Texas, one of the largest centers of US oil production.

At the beginning of the week, the air temperature in the cities of the State dropped to -20 ° С against the background of a snowstorm.

As a result of frosts, unusual for the warm region, enterprises are forced to suspend oil production.

“At the moment, there is no exact data on the reduction in production, however, according to various estimates, oil production fell by 1.2-4 million barrels per day.

In addition, oil refineries and pipelines were damaged, which partly led to a rolling blackout in the state, "said Andrei Maslov, an analyst at FINAM Group of Companies.

Recall that the United States remains one of the largest oil producers in the world.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, back in early February, the average production of raw materials in the United States was about 11 million barrels per day.

Against this background, the decline in US hydrocarbon production observed in recent days may significantly affect the global supply of oil.

Such fears of investors led to a sharp increase in prices for energy raw materials, experts say.

Additional support for the quotes was provided by a significant decrease in oil reserves in the United States.

So, over the past week, the volume of hydrocarbons in the storage facilities of the United States immediately decreased by 5.8 million barrels.

This is evidenced by data from the American Petroleum Institute.

“The decline in inventories was the highest in the last five weeks and more than doubled analysts' forecasts.

Earlier, experts expected a reduction in oil reserves in the United States by only 2.4 million barrels, ”added Andrey Maslov.

In addition, the gradual revival of global energy demand plays in favor of oil prices.

Natalya Milchakova, deputy head of the Alpari information and analytical center, expressed this point of view in an interview with RT.

According to her, mass vaccination of people against coronavirus and registration of new drugs should accelerate the recovery of the global economy and lead to an increase in fuel consumption in the world.

“Also, the price of oil was influenced by the actions of speculators, who began to play up because of the optimistic forecasts of several large investment banks about a possible rise in prices to $ 80 per barrel,” Milchakova said.

However, according to Andrey Maslov, the key support for oil prices is provided by the fulfillment of the terms of the OPEC + deal.

Since the beginning of February, the countries participating in the agreement began to reduce the production of energy raw materials by 1.4 million barrels per day.

According to the agreements reached earlier, the parties will continue this policy until the end of March 2021.

Recall that within the framework of the OPEC + partnership, the states - oil exporters specifically limit the production of hydrocarbons.

Thus, the countries are trying to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global energy market.

According to experts, the policy of the alliance members should keep oil prices from new collapses.

“Of course, the recovery in global demand and the actions of the OPEC + countries will continue to support the market.

At the same time, we see that the influence of these factors has already been taken into account in the price and, perhaps, even somewhat overestimated, "said Igor Galaktionov, an expert from BCS World of Investments, in an interview with RT.

Under these conditions, experts do not exclude that a correction in oil prices may follow the record growth.

According to Natalya Milchakova, in the near future Brent quotes may return to the range of $ 62-64 per barrel.

At the same time, Igor Galaktionov admits a decrease in the indicator to $ 55-58 per barrel by the end of March.

Plus for the budget

According to experts, throughout 2021, oil prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range under the influence of a number of factors.

According to Natalya Milchakova's estimate, at the moment the cost of energy raw materials may even reach $ 70 per barrel.

At the same time, the expert does not expect quotations to fall below $ 40 per barrel, as it was in 2020.

This state of affairs may have a positive effect on the state of the Russian budget, says Andrey Maslov.

According to him, maintaining prices even close to current values ​​can lead to a noticeable increase in the income of the Russian treasury.

“The planned budget deficit for 2021 is 2.75 trillion rubles.

The budget has been drawn up based on the projected average annual price of Urals oil at $ 45.3 per barrel, while the planned oil and gas revenues amount to 5.98 trillion rubles.

With the price of Urals oil at $ 60, oil and gas revenues may exceed 7.9 trillion, ”the expert suggested.

Note that for 2021, the so-called cut-off price of $ 43.3 per barrel is laid down in the Russian budget.

Within the framework of the budget rule, if commodity quotations fall below this mark, the lost oil and gas revenues are compensated by means of the National Welfare Fund (NWF).

If the cost of raw materials on the market rises above this indicator, the excess profits, on the contrary, are directed to the NWF.

“Thus, if prices remain relatively high, already in 2021, Russian budget revenues may exceed expenditures,” concluded Igor Galaktionov.