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It wasn't long ago that the city was a place of longing.
Building space was a luxury, so coveted and expensive that families were crowded out, parking garages achieved dream returns and shop rents formed a plateau.
Within a few months, the corona crisis has turned German cities into intensive care patients.
It is no coincidence that an initiative by dealers, municipal decision-makers and research institutes is called “Die Stadttretter”: what needs to be saved is in mortal danger.
The purchasing power of Germans, once magically drawn to shops in and around the pedestrian zones, is now increasingly flowing into the Internet.
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While online and mail order sales rose by 24.1 percent in real terms last year, i.e. adjusted for price changes, the trade in textiles and shoes shrank by 23.4 percent, according to the Federal Statistical Office.
Almost 60 percent of dealers are in danger of existence
The shops of the clothing retailers have been a pillar of the inner city system for decades.
Now many are facing the end.
There is great anger at the long lockdown policy, and indeed the mandated closure is acting as a fire accelerator.
But the causes of the inner city crisis lie deeper.
The roots go back more than two decades to the beginnings of e-commerce.
It takes revenge that hundreds of thousands of retailers believed for far too long that they could ignore the digital upstarts they are driving around today.
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How serious the situation is is shown in a member survey by the German Retail Association, according to which no less than 57 percent of retailers are in existential danger.
Only now is the digitization of retailers with stationary business models picking up speed.
According to a study by the research institute Ibi-Research at the University of Regensburg last December, 58 percent want to invest in their IT infrastructure and equipment and in marketing this year.
Late enough.
Just a few months earlier, the Regensburg researchers had determined that every second of the approximately 320,000 retail companies in Germany only looks for customer contacts and business opportunities in their own shop.
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After that, 14 percent don't even have a website.
They cannot be found on the Internet, the most important search and information medium for goods and services of all kinds.
The race to catch up is getting harder and harder
According to Ibi-Research, it is noticeable that only small retailers avoid digitization.
They named the organizational effort, high fees and fierce competition as reasons for not doing this.
But for dealers who have saved the investment up to now, the race to catch up is now becoming increasingly difficult.
“For many it is too late.
You missed the start, ”says retail expert Gerrit Heinemann.
There will also be no return to the conditions before Corona.
“Many consumers ask themselves: What should I still do in the pedestrian zone?” Observes Jochen Strähle, Professor of Fashion Management at Reutlingen University.
For the shopkeeper, he has an uncomfortable insight: "Corona has shown that the loss of stationary clothing retail has not seriously affected the consumer."
Buyers got used to buying clothing online - most of them use both options anyway.
A two-thirds majority of inner-city visitors also order online, according to a study by the Cologne retail research institute IFH.
But does the decline of trade along the composite stone paving aisles in Germany's cities also mean the impoverishment of the city community?
Strähle means: not necessarily.
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Retail concepts have always had their half-life, says the university professor: "Every life cycle comes to an end."
Residents were purposefully displaced
Sounding names have gone under.
Only older people remember Horten and Hertie, Neckermann and Quelle.
In the post-war period, department stores had their prime, shipping kings built their empires, later franchise concepts like Benetton flourished until chains from H&M to Inditex (Zara) took the top position from them.
Now, according to the professor, another turning point is imminent.
The future city would no longer be dominated by chain stores and merchants.
“It has to belong to the people again,” says Strähle.
The residents have been purposefully pushed out of the city centers.
Instead, trade and industry have taken over the rule by increasing rents to unaffordable levels for residential use.
"The result is basically dead cities where you can only shop and drink."
Helmut Dedy, General Manager of the German Association of Cities, would not put it in such a pointed way.
But he too sees the end of an era.
"We are experiencing a massive change in the city centers," he told WELT.
Department store branches would be closed, thousands of small retailers would be near the end.
"Nevertheless, pedestrian zones are not obsolete, on the contrary: inner cities are the flagship of a city and offer a lot of potential for identification, communication, stay and experience", says the head of the city council optimistically.
But in order to survive the swing unscathed, the city leaders would have to rebuild structures - and also change their mindset.
Municipalities that have already been successful should have the best chances.
Deep scars in the far west
They come in all sizes.
In a study, the Cologne retail researchers recently asked passers-by for their assessment of the quality of stay in 107 German cities.
The winner among the metropolises with more than half a million inhabitants was Leipzig, Rostock was ahead in the class below and Wismar among the small towns.
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In other municipalities there is a lot of catching up to do.
In order to erase it, investments with money would be necessary, which even weak communities will certainly not have after the Corona crisis.
Years of municipal emergency budgets have left deep scars in many medium-sized towns, especially in the far west of Germany.
Whole streets are lined with yawning empty shop windows, only occasionally interrupted by one-euro shops, amusement arcades and pop-up stores for sweets.
The public space is neglected, the streets desolate.
Even if the shops are allowed to reopen after Corona, there is no major upturn in sight.
"Once a negative spiral has set in motion, it becomes very difficult to turn it around," says IFH boss Boris Hedde.
So the gap between winners and losers is likely to widen even further.
The IFH survey also revealed that shopping will remain an important motive for visiting the city in the future - but only one of many.
Only when the city becomes more diverse again, when affordable rents enable the return of apartments, trendy restaurants and small businesses, will the city remain interesting, according to the consensus of the experts.
There must also be more space in the city in the future for advisory services, social facilities and repair services.
“That only works in a concerted action, in which the municipalities participate as well as restaurateurs, traders and social institutions,” says Jochen Strähle with certainty.
More funds for urban development funding
For property owners, this tends to mean falling returns, but many will probably have no other choice in the future, according to Dedy, head of the City Council.
Ultimately, the owners also have an interest in ensuring that their houses are not empty.
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“It no longer has to be the most profitable use, because in many cases that no longer exists,” says Dedy.
Close cooperation between city administrations and the real estate industry is more necessary than ever.
In individual cases, this could also lead to municipalities becoming owners of key properties themselves for a while.
“For this, cities need legally secure instruments and the necessary financial possibilities.
It would help if the federal and state governments increase funding for urban development, ”he demands.
Time seems to have run out for the car as the ideal way to win customers.
Its suppression is considered unavoidable in the long term, if not necessarily to zero.
Metropolises like Amsterdam or London show how it is done.
In the future world of shopping, shopping in the city is less about supply than about leisure time.
Cities without a feel-good factor will be out of business.
The right mix of cafes and department stores, big and small, bargains and luxury is crucial.
Premium department stores are just as much a part of this as second-handers, restaurants and authorities, say observers.
It is already evident today how shopping can become an event.
At sports retailers such as Globetrotter or Engelhorn, for example, potential customers can try out climbing or water sports equipment on site.
Fewer cars, more quality of stay
A UK study found that doing business in bike-friendly and pedestrian-friendly areas of London did up to 30 percent better business.
The corresponding customers come to the shopping areas more often and spend more time there than drivers.
“That makes the shopping streets more economically valuable,” says the study.
“Creating more customer parking spaces for cars is a model from the last century,” says Dedy.
"More greenery and fewer cars in the city center - that increases the quality of stay for everyone."
Which cities will cope with the change depends largely on the local staff.
City administrations would have to switch from a more passive to an active role, demands trade researcher Hedde: “It is no longer enough to print folders that show how beautiful the city is.
It's about creating events, creating regional marketplaces, planning voucher campaigns. "
Vacancy management, temporary use, investor recruitment and many other tasks are also involved.
Even the city rescuers were surprised at how great the need for information is.
The initiative to exchange knowledge and experience came about relatively spontaneously after the first lockdown, says entrepreneur Bo Nintzel, one of the founders.
“We said to ourselves: we have to do something now to support communities in the best possible way.” Less than two weeks later there were a hundred members, and now there are more than 600.
"I get calls from retailers who no longer understand the world"
The lockdown has been extended, the German retail sector feels left out.
Stefan Genth, General Manager of the German Trade Association, finally calls for an opening strategy in the WELT interview.
The situation is dramatic.
Source: WELT / Tatjana Ohm