(Financial World) Can the world economy turn into new opportunities?

　　China News Service, Beijing, February 14 (Liu Liang) Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, the world economy has suffered tremendous trauma.

In the lunar year of the ox, can the world economy get out of the gloom?

Analysts here believe that the world economy is still in a state of "weak recovery" and it will be difficult for it to be "bullish" in the short term.

　　Looking back on 2020, the previous economic data released by major international authorities show that the impact of the epidemic on the world economy is unprecedented, and its impact even far exceeds the global financial crisis of 2008.

　　Entering 2021.

Judging from the recent economic forecast data released by international agencies, optimistic voices have increased.

The latest forecast data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that developed economies are expected to achieve economic growth of 4.3% this year, which is slightly higher than previous forecasts; the indicators of many developing economies have also improved significantly.

　　Bian Weihong, director and researcher of the Bank of China Research Institute, pointed out at a forum that since major economies will maintain loose monetary and fiscal policies, the world economy will pick up in the first half of 2021, but this does not represent the essence of the world economy. Sexual resuscitation.

　　He analyzed that on the one hand, the epidemic has caused a sharp drop in global labor income. Out of concerns about the future economic prospects, people will tend to increase savings, resulting in weak demand growth; on the other hand, the profits of multinational companies have fallen sharply and geopolitical Tensions and other factors will also profoundly affect the prospects for the recovery of global investment and trade.

　　The World Bank also reminded that although the world is expected to achieve a broader economic recovery this year, the economic "aftershocks" brought about by the epidemic are still there, especially after the epidemic, the world economy is still in a "weak recovery" state, and the downward pressure on the economy is still hovering over the sky. .

At the same time, the emergence of global epidemics and the mutation of viruses lie on the road of economic recovery.

　　"The impact of the epidemic on the world economy is huge, and economic recovery will not happen overnight. It requires a process." Chen Fengying, a researcher at the China Institute of Modern International Relations, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that economic recovery involves many dimensions. It will take time to get back on track.

　　The IMF also stated that affected by factors such as the popularity of medical interventions, the effectiveness of policy support measures, and structural characteristics before the crisis, the economic recovery of various countries is expected to show significant differences.

　　In this context, the new crown vaccine is undoubtedly placed high hopes of "saving" the world economy.

As Tang Jianwei, the chief researcher of the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, said, vaccine progress determines the process of economic recovery and is the key to breaking the epidemic deadlock and restarting the world economy.

　　But having a vaccine does not mean "get it right once and for all."

Su Xiaohui, deputy director of the American Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, pointed out that only a large-scale global population vaccination can truly restore the world economy.

She admitted that compared with rich countries, some economically underdeveloped countries have a certain lag in the popularization of vaccines, and it is difficult for the economic recovery to resonate with the same frequency.

　　At the recent Davos Forum, UN Secretary-General Guterres also emphasized that although vaccines have been developed, there are still serious inequalities in distribution.

Vaccines should become a global public product, and extensive vaccination is the key to economic "rebirth".

　　In addition to vaccines, some people have turned their attention to the recovery of the world economy to China.

Prior to this, the first recovery of China's economy has become a highlight of the "darkest moment" of the world economy.

　　Bian Weihong believes that in the short term, China's economy is still the main engine of world economic growth.

Most other countries and regions are expected to return to their pre-epidemic levels in the next few years.

　　In its recent economic forecasts, the IMF once again cast a "vote of confidence" in the Chinese economy.

It is estimated that the world economy will grow by 5.5% this year, and the Chinese economy will grow by 8.1%.

　　In the face of major changes unseen in a century, as the world's second largest economy, China's continued economic recovery will inject more certainty into the recovery of the world economy.

Statistics show that China has contributed more than 30% to world economic growth for many consecutive years, and China's economic stability is undoubtedly a big plus for the world.

　　Looking to the future, Chen Fengying believes that the epidemic has accelerated the process of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, forcing the economy and society to accelerate gridding, digitization and intelligence. In the future, these will also become the trend of world economic development and contribute to the world economy in the post-epidemic era. Inject new impetus into its development.

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