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We don't have a suitable metaphor for what's happening in Germany right now.

If the brand, which should be the prerequisite for exiting the lockdown, is changed from an incidence of 50 to 35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants within a week, then in German one is most likely to dig out athletics jargon: The bar will be raised.

The comparison, however, lags, because with the high jump it is clear from the start (and worth striving for) that the goal is raised with each successful translator.

A metaphor from English is more appropriate: Moving the goalposts (dt: moving the goalposts).

What is meant is that, in the middle of a ball game, goals are arbitrarily shifted with the full intention of making them more difficult to achieve.

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We experience nothing else with the change in the incidence criterion as a result of the latest federal-state resolution.

The mountain tore and gave birth to a 35. At the end of October, at that time the seven-day incidence was 94, the lockdown light was decided, with the promise that normality would return when the figure fell below 50.

Three and a half long months and various lockdown extensions and tightenings later, the 50 is finally getting closer.

In some federal states it could be achieved within days, nationwide at least within two weeks.

And now, of all times, the 35 is suddenly conjured up.

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For every politician, the temptation to send the unfortunate lockdown game into another extension must be overwhelming: On the one hand, there is the decline in the number of cases and incidences, which has become something of a sure-fire success over the past four weeks.

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The reported number of potentially contagious - the "active" - ​​cases is falling steadily, which has gained a positive momentum under lockdown conditions.

Why not, the inclined head of government has to think, simply leave the current rules in force for another week, two or three weeks?

It's deep winter anyway and the urge to leave your own four walls is subdued like rarely.

Conversely, contrary to what Markus Söder has just claimed, not only the imposition but also the lifting of a lockdown requires courage: Who wants to have been the irresponsible in the event that the mutation apocalypticists are right?

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The only problem is: the new target is epidemiologically of no value.

The fact that the “meticulous” follow-up of contacts, which the Chancellor has longed for since May, should not be possible at once for 50, but at 35, is not even claimed by the new federal-state resolution.

The only thing that speaks for the 35 is that it was already in the room once, in spring 2020

Instead, he only nebulously recurs on the "background of the uncertainty regarding the spread of virus mutants".

Why this "background" makes 35 appear as the target value is not clear.

The only thing that speaks for the 35 is that it was already in the room once, in spring 2020.

Of course, should there really be a third wave triggered by mutations, the difference between 35 and 50 is only small.

In case of doubt, as you can see when looking at the statistics from October, the resulting time buffer is only a few days long.

"All three mutations are more aggressive"

"Everything has not yet been explored, but we would do well not to doubt the assumptions made by many experts when they tell us that all three mutations are much more aggressive, i.e. more contagious, and are more easily transmitted than the original virus," warned Merkel.

Source: WORLD

If you really wanted to reserve a lot of reaction time, the goals would have to be set much more ambitiously, more in the direction of the ten already advocated by scientists.

It is only understandable that the Prime Ministers did not dare to make such a requirement after all.

In addition, one should actually believe that the time in which the progress in fighting pandemic is primarily measured by a single nationwide value - whether ten, 35 or 50 - is over.

Why not take a look at the actually much more decisive incidence in the 80+ age group?

Why not judge the number of cases based on where they come from?

It just makes a difference whether a 50s incidence comes about because the virus appears all over the place in a district or concentrated in one or two nursing homes.

If there is still a new epidemiologically largely meaningless target, then it is likely to be based primarily on a political calculation: the heads of government pretend that they are responding to the longing of many, many citizens to retain even a small amount of predictability in their current year of life .

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They serve the longing for reliability and the basic expectation that a residue of political self-commitment will be retained even in times of grossest restrictions on fundamental rights.

However, politicians shy away from pre-determinations, as they would result from step-by-step plans, for understandable reasons.

But to replace a meager number in shop windows is a cheap substitute.

Lifting the lockdown when reaching 35 may be necessary or irresponsible - depending on the situation

35 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days; this can conceal a dramatic, dynamic development - or progress towards virological normality.

For an evaluation it depends on the environment and the details.

Lifting the lockdown when reaching 35 may be necessary or irresponsible - depending on the situation.

Prime ministers and chancellor also hedge themselves here: Shops and restaurants open at 35?

Yes, but only “from today's perspective” (sic!) “Can” (sic!) “The next opening step” (sic!) Really take place - smuggling so many fallback options into a single sentence is almost an art.

The closer you look, the clearer it becomes: the politicians wanted to appear to offer something without actually having to surrender anything.

One is determined to continue to dispose of the most extensive restrictions of freedom at will and discretionary.

You can be.

Only then is it also a responsibility to stand by it and explain it.

Instead, however, there are now the 35 million people will see their private hopes and professional prospects linked to it.

And yet it is nothing more than a crumb of bread that can be swept off the table with a breath.

At the next federal-state conference.

Or before.

Or after that.

Has whatever you want.

"... then we will reach the 35 incidence around March 10-15"

Chancellery Minister Helge Braun has to endure a lot of criticism after the recent Corona summit.

How is the new incidence value explained?

And when can we reach him?

Helge Braun is available to answer questions.

Source: WORLD