Comfortable bar: the price of Brent oil for the first time since January 2020 exceeded $ 60 per barrel

On Monday, February 8, the price of Brent crude oil on the ICE exchange in London grew by 1.2% and at the moment reached $ 60.26 per barrel.

At the same time, quotations of the American WTI grade rose by 1.4% - to $ 57.67 per barrel.

Values ​​are the highest since late January 2020.

Experts interviewed by RT believe that the main reason for the observed rise in oil prices is the execution of the OPEC + deal.

Since the beginning of February, the countries participating in the agreement began to reduce the production of energy raw materials by 1.4 million barrels per day.

According to the agreements reached earlier, the parties will continue this policy until the end of March 2021.

Recall that within the framework of the OPEC + partnership, the states - oil exporters specifically limit the production of hydrocarbons.

Thus, the countries are trying to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global energy market.

According to experts, the policy of the alliance members should keep oil prices from new collapses.

“The members of the alliance highly appreciate the effectiveness of the transaction and intend to continue to coordinate their actions in this area.

At the same time, in recent days, support for oil prices was provided by a revised forecast from OPEC + analysts.

Experts are confident that throughout 2021 there will be a deficit in the global oil market.

It is expected that the maximum deficit level will be reached in May and will amount to 2 million barrels per day, "Igor Galaktionov, an expert at BCS World of Investments, told RT.

In addition, market participants are positive about the data on the reduction of raw materials in the US.

According to a report from the US Energy Information Administration, over the last week of January, the volume of oil reserves in the United States decreased by almost 1 million barrels.

At the same time, analysts, on the contrary, predicted an increase in the indicator by 446 thousand barrels.

“Stocks in the United States are declining, as oil production in the country stagnates and in recent weeks has remained close to 11 million barrels per day against 13 million a year earlier.

This is largely due to the slow recovery of economic activity in the States, ”Alexei Kirienko, managing partner of EXANTE, told RT.

The steadily growing demand for energy resources in Asian countries also plays in favor of oil prices.

This point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by Andrey Maslov, an analyst of the Finam Group.

“The consumption of hydrocarbons is growing most noticeably in India and China, which are still the“ world factories ”.

It is worth mentioning separately such countries of the Asia-Pacific region as Indonesia and Malaysia.

First of all, the growth in demand for fuel in these countries is associated with the often rather low-tech, but energy-intensive production, ”Maslov noted.

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At the same time, according to Maslov, the situation with the coronavirus pandemic still exerts some pressure on oil prices.

According to Johns Hopkins University, the number of detected cases of COVID-19 in the world continues to grow and today exceeds 106 million.

Against this background, many states continue to maintain quarantine restrictions, which prevents the full resumption of freight and passenger traffic in the world.

As a result, global demand for fuel and energy resources is recovering more slowly than expected, Andrey Maslov emphasized.

However, a large-scale vaccination of the population against COVID-19 should correct the situation, says Alexander Razuvaev, head of the Alpari information and analytical center.

According to him, the active use of the drug against coronavirus will give an impetus to the world economy to get out of the recession and thereby support the demand for energy.

“The $ 60 per barrel mark reached now is a very important psychological level.

In the near future, investors may start fixing profits, which may lead to a temporary decline in quotations.

Meanwhile, for 2021, we forecast a price output in the range of $ 60-70 per barrel.

I suppose that quotations will be able to gain a foothold at this level in the spring, ”Razuvaev noted.

Financial incentive

The rise in oil prices to record levels had a positive impact on the dynamics of the Russian currency.

At trading on Monday, the dollar rate fell by 0.7% - to 74.15, and the euro rate - by 0.8%, to 89.25 rubles.

This is evidenced by the data of the Moscow Exchange.

According to Andrey Maslov, in the near future the dollar exchange rate will remain in the range of 74-76 rubles, and the euro rate - around 89-91 rubles.

At the same time, according to Alexander Razuvaev, a further rise in oil prices may provide significant support to the Russian currency.

Thus, the analyst does not exclude that in the absence of external shocks by the end of 2021, the dollar exchange rate can return to the level of 65-67 rubles.

Moreover, the observed increase in oil prices may have a positive effect on the state of the Russian budget, Razuvaev is sure.

According to the analyst, already in 2021, the revenues of the national treasury may exceed expenditures.

“The Russian budget for 2021 includes an oil price of $ 43.3 per barrel. Oil revenues above this price are channeled to the National Wealth Fund. Therefore, the probability that the budget will be in surplus by the end of the year is almost 100%. It is worth noting that in economic terms, Russia has actually got rid of its dependence on oil - the volume of the country's raw and non-raw materials exports have practically become equal. However, oil quotes are still very important for the budget, ”the expert concluded.