[Explanation] Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced China's economic data for 2020.

Under the epidemic situation, China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.3% last year, and the total economic volume surpassed the 100 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) mark.

Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, recently said in an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face-to-face" that he should not be overly optimistic about China's economic situation in 2021, and he must remain sober.

　　Recently, the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other international organizations have issued forecast reports, giving positive comments on China's economic development in 2021.

Sheng Laiyun said that this fully demonstrated the confidence of these institutions in the stable development of China's economy.

The reasons why they gave positive comments on China's economy are mainly reflected in four aspects.

　　[Concurrent] Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics

　　One aspect is that China’s economic recovery is improving. For example, in the fourth quarter of last year, China’s GDP (year-on-year) growth was 6.5%, and the growth rate of industries above designated size was 7.1%, which is higher than the same period in the fourth quarter of 2019. .

The second reason is that as our epidemic prevention and control are effective, we support the development of consumption and service industries to a certain extent.

The third reason is that as our current international situation is improving, the world economy is recovering, especially the stimulus policies of some countries will not be withdrawn soon. To a certain extent, this kind of external demand for us constitutes a certain positive support. , Actively support.

There is another very important reason. The reason why everyone expects that the data is relatively high is because of the effect of the base. Last year, our first quarter (economic growth rate) was -6.8%. There was a "big pit", and the base was relatively low, so it would increase significantly. High year-on-year growth rate.

　　[Explanation] But Sheng Laiyun also reminded that the degree of influence of the above reasons still needs to be carefully analyzed, and the influence mechanism of some factors needs to be accurately judged.

For example, the epidemic situation is scattered and frequently occurring. China has experience in controlling the epidemic, but its impact still exists.

　　[Concurrent] Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China

　　The point I emphasize here is that we should not be overly optimistic, but we still have to stay awake.

It is true that the world economy in 2021 may be significantly better than in 2020, but the epidemic is still spreading globally, but how can the supply capacity of this vaccine and its quality meet the needs of people around the world? Even distribution is an issue worth observing.

　　[Explanation] Sheng Laiyun said that the base problem should not be overestimated.

Some institutions predict that China's economic growth rate will exceed 18% or even reach 20% in the first quarter of 2021, because they believe that the average growth rate of last year and this year should be close to potential productivity.

He believes that in fact this simple calculation is not very scientific, because some economic aggregate losses cannot be made up.

Forecasts should still be based on accurate and objective statistics.

　　Reporter Liu Xuanting Wang Enbo reports from Beijing

Editor in charge: [Ji Xiang]