Resolve the "onion hit wave", listen to what the producing area says
——Survey on the response to price fluctuations in the main producing areas of scallion in Shandong
Since October 2020, the price of green onions has continued to rise, once breaking through 10 yuan per catty.
What is the reason for this round of onion prices?
How to deal with the adverse effects of price "roller coaster" in main green onion producing areas?
In this regard, the reporter recently went to many places in Shandong to investigate and interview.
In October 2020, the price of green onions began to rise from 2 yuan/jin, and by early January 2021, it once exceeded 10 yuan/jin.
Prices have fallen recently, but they have remained high compared to previous years.
What caused this round of onion prices to soar?
What is the future trend of green onion prices?
How to prevent the "roller coaster" of agricultural product prices?
Recently, the reporter conducted interviews with many major green onion producing areas and many industry experts.
The price of green onions is as high as 10 yuan per catty
Zhangqiu District, Jinan City, Shandong Province, is the main producing area of green onions well-known throughout the country.
The reporter learned from the Green Onion Industry Office of Zhangqiu District Agriculture and Rural Bureau that Zhangqiu Green Onion has become a pillar industry that stimulates regional economic development and drives farmers' incomes to become rich.
At present, the total area of green onions planted in Zhangqiu is 120,000 mu with an annual output of 600 million kilograms and an annual output value of more than 700 million yuan.
Zhangqiu green onions are generally harvested in late October each year, and the harvest is basically completed before the lunar calendar is heavy snow and solar terms. At present, the green onions are mainly sold by distributors.
A few days ago, when the reporter visited the Zhangqiu Green Onion Market in Longshan, Zhangqiu, there were not too many people in the market. The green onions were neatly packed into small bundles and stored against the wall, and some green onions were packed in exquisite packaging boxes.
Several helpers are busy soiling, peeling and bundling the green onions.
Liu Jiexing, manager of Zhangqiu Green Onion Market Jiexing Agricultural Products Company, told reporters that Zhangqiu green onions are "tall, crisp, white and sweet" and are well-known in the country. They have been sold as specialty products.
"At present, the price of this 10 kg bundle is 60 yuan, and the 8 kg gift box is also 60 yuan." Liu Jiexing said with emotion that the price of green onions is indeed very high under this wave of market.
In the previous period, the retail sales of hardcore green onions in the market exceeded 10 yuan/jin.
He has been in the green onion business for more than 30 years, and this wave of green onion prices is the highest he has ever experienced.
"The signs of the price increase of green onions last year can be seen from the ground. In previous years, vegetable vendors sent green onions to our market. Last year we got the ground harvest, otherwise there may be no goods, and the price is much higher than in previous years." Liu Jiexing said In the field, the price of green onions rose from 10,000 yuan/mu to 20,000 yuan/mu, and later even reached 30,000 yuan/mu.
Afterwards, the reporter went to the largest vegetable wholesale market in the east of Jinan City-Qilibao Wholesale Market.
"Golden" Zhangqiu green onions are hard to find here, the most common is the hardcore green onions.
The reporter randomly asked several vendors. The hardcore scallions sold here are basically from Anqiu City, Weifang, Shandong. If you buy more than 5 catties, the price is around 4.6 yuan per catty. If you buy them in bulk, the price is about 5.5 yuan per catty.
"This has dropped a lot." After a citizen inquired about the price, the stall owner Mr. Li said helplessly. When the temperature was the lowest a while ago, the price of loose green onions once rose to more than 10 yuan per catty.
"I have been in this business for more than ten years, and this is the first time I have encountered such a high price of green onions." Mr. Li told reporters.
Mr. Li also told reporters that recently affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic in some areas, some green onions could not be delivered to Hebei and other sales areas in time, resulting in concentrated stay in Jinan area, so the price has dropped.
But as the Spring Festival approaches, many stall owners predict that the price of onion will experience another wave of rise in the later period.
On January 27, 2021, on the Hema Xiansheng platform, a 1.5 kg package of Shandong green onions is on sale at 37.9 yuan.
In a supermarket in Jinan, the reporter found that ordinary hardcore green onions sell for 7.5 yuan per catty.
Faced with the high price of green onions, Ms. Wang, a Jinan citizen who is shopping, said that she would stock up a bunch of green onions for the New Year in the past. This year, the price was higher and only a few green onions were bought. However, green onions are not a necessity. She is also planning to buy some green onions. As an alternative.
"Cobweb Model" Affects Green Onion Price Cycle
Regarding the reason for this round of green onion prices, Guo Honggang, Party branch secretary of Weili Village, an important planting village of Zhangqiu green onions, told reporters that green onion prices are "a game of chess across the country", and Zhangqiu's green onions prices are not in Zhangqiu's final decision. It is mainly caused by short supply.
According to Guo Honggang, a bumper harvest of green onions across the country in 2019 resulted in oversupply and very low prices.
Judging from the local situation in Zhangqiu, at that time, an acre of green onions could only be sold for 1,000 yuan to 2,000 yuan, while the cost of digging onions was almost 1,500 yuan, plus planting costs, the cost of an acre of land was about 2,500 yuan to 3,000 yuan.
Many green onion farmers have lost money and would rather go to work than plant green onions, which will lead to a certain reduction in the area of zhangqiu green onions in 2020.
This phenomenon also exists in Anqiu, Weifang, the main producing area of iron scallions.
Zhang Zhonghua, director of the Vegetable Station of the Agricultural and Rural Bureau of Anqiu City, told reporters that in the first half of 2020, Anqiu scallions were still very cheap, and the land price of scallions was only a dime per catty. This also directly affected the enthusiasm of scallion farmers. Green onion farmers no longer sow, so the overall green onion planting area in Anqiu is affected to some extent.
House seemingly endless rain.
Starting in July 2020, Anqiu City ushered in the rainy season.
Although it is not continuously severely affected by typhoons "Wimbia" and "Lichma" as in 2018 and 2019, the average precipitation in Anqiu area reached 900 mm in 2020, which is more than 600 mm in the past 30 years. The annual average precipitation is 50% more.
"Onions are most afraid of waterlogging. Once a waterlogging disaster occurs, it is easy to get soft rot." Zhang Zhonghua said that Anqiu has little rain all year round, and the drainage facilities built before have been planted by the people over time.
After the floods last year, there have basically been various degrees of reduction in production.
According to statistics, from August to November 2020, the production of green onions in Anqiu will be reduced by about 50%.
Not only the green onion producing areas in Shandong, but also floods in many southern provinces in the summer of 2020.
"The growing period of green onions generally lasts from 8 to 9 months. Because of the floods in the south, many green onion growing areas even went out of production for a time, which also pushed up the price of green onions to a considerable extent."
Zhang Zhonghua told reporters that according to statistics, starting from July 2020, due to the gradual decrease in the supply of green onions, the price of green onions has begun to increase.
After entering November, the price of green onion tops exceeded 3 yuan per catty, reaching a high of about 3.5 yuan per catty at one time. Through the transmission of logistics links, the price of entering the terminal consumer market has gradually increased, coupled with the influence of factors such as temperature and epidemic prevention and control. Presents high price fluctuations.
Zhu Danpeng, a senior researcher at the China Brand Research Institute and an analyst for the Chinese food industry, believes that in addition to factors such as planting area and weather, tight logistics around the festival has also led to rising costs, which has further promoted the price increase of agricultural products such as green onions.
Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at the Suning Financial Research Institute, said that according to the "cobweb model" in economics, changes in commodity prices will affect its output in the next cycle, and the output in this period depends on its previous price; it determines the supply volume in the current period. The previous price and the current price that determine the demand (sales) of the current period may be inconsistent, resulting in a deviation of output and price from equilibrium, and fluctuations in output and price.
Fu Yifu believes that information asymmetry is a key factor in the predicament of the "cobweb model".
For planting scallions, because farmers cannot learn about market changes in time and accurately, they have to decide the scale of scallion planting in the next period based on the price of the previous period; and when the scallions are mature, farmers have to sell them at the current market price. The output determined by the price of the previous period.
When the expected price is inconsistent with the actual price, fluctuations in the production and price of green onions will appear.
Based on this, the prices of agricultural products are often considered to be cyclical.
Statistics show that despite the influence of external factors such as weather, the price of green onions is often fluctuating, but the overall cycle is roughly four years.
For example, in 2012, the price of green onions in my country skyrocketed and was nicknamed "Xiangqian Cong" by netizens; in the first half of 2016, the price of green onions experienced an extremely rapid increase; in the second half of 2020, multiple factors have superimposed the influence, and this round of green onions has increased again. new highs.
Small crops look forward to the development of the entire industry chain
Inferior grains hurt the farmers, and expensive vegetables hurt the people.
"As a production area, we see that the price of onion is at a high level and that onion farmers have benefited and even become rich. We are sure to be happy, but we know that behind this cyclical fluctuation, it has brought double-edged swords to onion farmers and consumers. The impact of style. Keeping prices stable is what everyone wants to see." Zhang Zhonghua told reporters.
Guo Honggang also said: “For farmers, we want more stable profits than the price'roller coaster'.”
The cyclical impact of agricultural product prices is what green onion producing areas have been looking forward to, and they are also actively looking for countermeasures for this.
Liu Kai, executive president and chief technology officer of Shandong Wohua Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Wohua Technology”), a key enterprise in the domestic green onion industry, mentioned in an interview that the company has been exploring one thing for more than ten years. , That is, to build the entire industrial chain around the green onions, especially the first in China to propose the concept of full mechanization and socialized services.
In the face of the imbalance of market supply and demand, the difficulty of employing labor and the high cost of labor, Wohua Technology also proposed "to turn land into green factories, and farmers to become industrial workers". Farmers provide land and power, enterprises provide technology and management, and realize the whole chain. closed loop.
With the large-scale and standardized operation of key enterprises, coupled with the promotion of production and sales docking on the sales side, "planned production" can be realized to the greatest extent.
At present, the company not only has self-built bases in Shandong, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Fujian and other provinces, but also has established long-term strategic partnerships with a number of well-known brand companies such as Master Kong, Lee Kum Kee, COFCO and Jinluo.
"Agriculture cannot take off without technology and capital. For small crops, it is difficult for the market to have the blessing of formal capital. Only the hot money is speculating on the so-called'garlic you are ruthless', ginger your army, and the money's green onion.' Stepping on watermelon rinds is a matter of where you go. The development of modern agriculture is one of the directions that has a lot of room for growth, and we are also willing to continue to work hard in this direction." Liu Kai revealed that Wohua Technology intends to take the lead Establish an industry fund to continue to play the role of capital in promoting the development of the entire industrial chain of green onion and connecting with new retail.
Guo Honggang told reporters that Wei Li village established Shandong Congxiang Siji Agricultural Development Co., Ltd., dedicated to the standardization and modernization of Zhangqiu Congxiang.
At present, the company has formed a whole green onion industrial chain integrating seedling cultivation, planting, processing and sales.
Guo Honggang said that on the one hand, the company's scallion production and quality are guaranteed through land transfer, mechanized planting, and standardized processing; on the other hand, it cooperates with Hema Fresh to open up sales channels to ensure stable profits for farmers and effectively reduce the impact of the price "roller coaster" on farmers. .
Although key enterprises in the industry have made active explorations, the cultivation of green onions in my country is still based on scattered operations by farmers.
Liu Kai said that although the country has a planting scale of close to 10 million mu, the overall production organization is disorderly and the situation of farmers following the trend has not changed.
"The large fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products are largely related to the complex circulation process. Due to the numerous intermediate links, the terminal prices of agricultural products are very different from the initial prices in the hands of farmers, and many middlemen have obtained them from them. Fu Yifu believes that, on the one hand, more efforts should be made to straighten out the supply and marketing links and reduce the circulation cost of agricultural products, so as to realize the efficiency and smoothness of the circulation links as much as possible to ensure the stability of agricultural prices.
At the same time, improve the monitoring and early warning and information release mechanisms for the production, export, inventory, and price of agricultural products, increase information transparency, and improve various problems caused by information asymmetry.
On the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen the cultivation of agricultural product market entities, support the construction of cold chain logistics for agricultural product market entities, and strengthen supporting facilities such as processing and storage to improve market throughput. This will not only ensure the quality and quantity of agricultural products and reduce losses, but also It can also indirectly adjust the market rhythm of agricultural products, so as to avoid big fluctuations in market prices.
"In addition, we must guide social hot money to invest in agriculture actively and healthily to avoid malicious speculation." Fu Yifu said.
Securities Daily reporter Zhao Binbin and Wang Xi