The growth rate of GDP = gross domestic product announced this month from October to December last year will be positive for the second consecutive term, but the next one, from January to March, will be affected by the state of emergency. There are many views that there is a high possibility that it will fall negative again.
Regarding GDP from October to December last year announced on the 15th of this month, the forecast compiled by 10 companies including private research companies shows that the real growth rate excluding price fluctuations will be from + 5.6% on an annualized basis. It is 14.1%.
Although it will slow down from the positive 22.9% in the previous quarter, it is expected to be positive for the second consecutive quarter.
Looking at the breakdown,
▽ "Personal consumption" will be positive due to the effects of the Go To campaign, etc., and ▽ "Exports" will also be strong, mainly to China, which is expected to significantly boost GDP.
▽ We expect that “capital investment,” which had been negative for the second consecutive term, will turn positive.
On the other hand, from January to March, all 9 of the 10 companies that have already indicated their views are likely to fall negative again.