(Economic Observation) Many places in China reveal that housing loans are "off-season" tightening, and the housing market is unlikely to continue

　　China News Service, Beijing, January 30th, title: China reveals that housing loans are "off-season" to tighten the housing market, it is hard to continue

　　China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji

　　In the first month of 2021, news of tight mortgage quotas and rising interest rates came from many places in China, and some banks were even exposed to have stopped lending.

By convention, the beginning of the year is the time when bank mortgages are the most abundant. Why is there an abnormal "shortage of loans" at the beginning of this year?

　Multi-location mortgage tightening

　　On January 29, the Shanghai Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued a new policy, and proposed eight major measures for continuing to do a good job in personal housing credit management, including strict implementation of real estate loan concentration management, strict review of the source of down payment funds and solvency review, Strictly strengthen the qualification review and credit management of borrowers.

Among them, it is proposed that housing loans can only be issued to individuals who purchase houses with a capped main structure.

　　The voices of tight mortgage quotas also continued.

Recently, some media reported that mortgage loans in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places were tight, and the loan time was extended to 2-3 months.

At the same time as the lending time was extended, interest rate hikes also began to appear.

A few days ago, the four major banks in Guangzhou "increased prices." After adjustment, the interest rate for the first home loan in Guangzhou rose to 5.2%, and the second home loan interest rate was 5.4%.

　　Is mortgage tightening common?

　　According to incomplete statistics from the Shell Research Institute, the first and second home loan interest rates in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan and other cities have increased month-on-month in January, increasing by 15, 20 and 10 basis points respectively; some cities such as Dongguan and Hangzhou Short-term bank loans were used up and loans were suspended; cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Xi'an, and Hefei all had bank mortgage loans that were tight, and the loan cycle was prolonged.

　　But this is only a partial phenomenon.

Several people from the mortgage department of real estate intermediary agencies told a reporter from China News Agency that in Beijing and other cities, the mortgage business has not changed significantly.

　　A staff member of the housing loan department of a local bank told a reporter from China News Agency that some banks are now in tight quotas, mainly because their previous mortgages were too large, which exceeded the control line set by the regulator and must be reduced.

In general, however, the main impact on ordinary home buyers is the extension of the loan time and stricter review. Only individual banks have actually stopped lending.

　　Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told a reporter from China News Agency that at present, some bank loans such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen have indeed tightened, but most of the cases are "normally receiving orders and extending loans."

Most banks have not made any obvious changes in mortgage approvals, and transactions that meet the loan qualifications can still lend normally, and they have not yet had a significant impact on second-hand housing transactions.

　　The Shell Research Institute's statistics on 158 head offices and 2,957 branches in 52 cities across the country show that the housing loan interest rate index rose slightly in January 2021.

Among them, the first home loan interest rate index was 95.21, a month-on-month increase of 0.17%; the second home loan interest rate index was 94.92, a month-on-month increase of 0.32%.

In general, some banks have tightened funds before the Spring Festival, and it is relatively difficult for residents to obtain loans.

　　Property market fever is expected to continue

　　Behind the tightening of housing loans is that some first- and second-tier cities have continued to maintain high real estate enthusiasm in recent months.

　　According to data from the Shell Research Institute, in January 2021, the actual transaction of second-hand houses in key 18 cities increased by about 23% from the previous month, and the absolute level of transactions was at a monthly high since 2019.

The market's warming is mainly concentrated in the first-tier cities. The first-tier four cities' January transaction volume increased by more than 20% month-on-month. Among them, the monthly transaction volume of the Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou cities is at the highest level since 2019.

　　According to the analysis of the Shell Research Institute, there are two main reasons for the current exposure of housing loans in some cities: First, in 2020, local housing demand will heat up significantly, and city bank housing loans will account for greater compliance pressure.

At the end of last year, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice, deciding to establish a real estate loan concentration management system for banking financial institutions, and to set the upper limit of the proportion of real estate loan balance and the upper limit of personal housing loan balance.

　　Second, housing prices in some cities have risen rapidly, or they are guided by regulatory authorities to control the pace and growth of personal mortgages to stabilize housing prices.

Recently, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other hot cities have also introduced policies to regulate and increase the property market.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that the recent tightening of housing loans in major cities such as Guangzhou and Shanghai is mostly related to credit concentration policies.

Other cities, especially provincial capitals, are more likely to follow up.

　　Experts predict that commercial banks in hot cities will be more cautious in approving loans in the future, the mortgage lending cycle will continue to stretch, and mortgage interest rates in cities with high housing market enthusiasm will rise.

　　How much does this affect the property market?

Li Yujia, the chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, believes that the increase in housing costs and the prolonged pace of loans will have a great impact on real estate transactions.

If subsequent loan quotas continue to be controlled and the loan issuance cycle lengthened, this will mean that the pace of transactions will slow down and the transaction volume of the property market will also decline. If the mortgage policy is further expanded and the quota continues to be tight, the current round of the property market cycle will most likely peak Callback.

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