Domestic refined oil prices ushered in a "second rise"
this
year,
our reporter Xiong Li
In 2021, refined oil prices will usher in a "second rise".
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, according to recent changes in oil prices in the international market and the current refined oil price formation mechanism, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by RMB 75 and RMB 70 per ton respectively from 24:00 on January 29.
After converting into price increases, 92# gasoline will increase by 0.06 yuan per liter, and 0# diesel will increase by 0.06 yuan per liter.
Based on an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, a full tank of fuel will cost about 3 yuan more.
According to calculations by Xu Wenwen, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, for a vehicle that consumes 7 to 8 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers in the urban area, the average cost per 1,000 kilometers will increase by about 4 yuan; for a large logistics transportation vehicle with a full load of 50 tons , The average fuel cost increases by about 24 yuan per 1,000 kilometers.
After this price adjustment, the price adjustment of refined oil products in 2021 shows a pattern of "two increases, zero falls, zero stranded". If the price adjustments at the end of 2020 are added, refined oil prices have achieved "six consecutive increases."
Meng Peng, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that the price adjustment is the last retail price adjustment of refined oil before the Spring Festival this year, and it is also the first "six consecutive increase" since the implementation of the current pricing mechanism on March 26, 2013.
Monitoring by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission showed that international oil prices rose slightly during the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (January 15-January 28).
On average, oil prices in London Brent and New York WTI rose by 2.46% compared to the previous price adjustment cycle.
During the price adjustment cycle, US crude oil inventories have fallen sharply, and the US government may adopt a new round of economic stimulus policies, which are the main factors affecting the upward oil price.
US Energy Information Administration data show that as of January 22, US crude oil inventories were 477 million barrels, a decrease of nearly 10 million barrels from the previous week, and dropped to the lowest level since March last year.
In addition, Iraq plans to reduce oil production to make up for last year’s overproduction, and Libya’s crude oil exports were interrupted due to wage disputes, all boosting oil prices.
However, the new crown pneumonia epidemic continues to spread, and some countries have adopted a new round of blockade measures such as border closures and social distancing, which has kept oil prices under pressure.
Under the intertwining of long and short factors, the overall international oil price fluctuates in a narrow range. The price of Brent in London fluctuates from US$54 to US$56 per barrel, and the fluctuation of WTI oil price in New York ranges from US$52 to US$53 per barrel.
On average, the London Brent and New York WTI crude oil futures prices in this price adjustment cycle were US$55.65 and US$52.69 per barrel, respectively, up 1.94% and 2.97% respectively over the previous price adjustment cycle.
The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that in the short term, international oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.
OPEC+'s production cut measures are still the most important factor in stabilizing oil prices. Saudi Arabia will start additional production cuts in February, and oil prices will also receive a certain degree of support.
However, under the influence of the continuous spread of the epidemic, the recovery of the global economy and crude oil demand will still be long and uneven.
The International Energy Agency lowered its forecasts of crude oil demand in the first and second quarters of this year, down by 600,000 barrels/day and 300,000 barrels/day compared with the previous values, indicating that the market is still not optimistic about the prospects for demand recovery, and there will be room for rising oil prices. restricted.
Li Yan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that based on the current international crude oil prices, the next round of refined oil price adjustments will begin to show a downward trend.
At present, the introduction of the new economic stimulus bill of the US Biden administration is likely to be delayed. At the same time, US-Iran relations may be eased. In addition, the European and American vaccination schedule is not as expected.
Our reporter Xiong Li