The United States will rethink its policy in the Middle East, that was one of the promises of new President Joe Biden. Barely in post, its head of diplomacy Antony Blinken announced in particular ...

American policy in the Middle East: "Everything is played around Iran"

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the State Department in Washington, January 27, 2021. REUTERS - CARLOS BARRIA

Text by: Oriane Verdier Follow

7 min

The United States will rethink its policy in the Middle East, that was one of the promises of new President Joe Biden.

Barely in post, its head of diplomacy Antony Blinken announced in particular, the "re-examination" of military support for the Gulf monarchies and take the first steps towards a gradual resumption of dialogue with Iran.

RFI put three questions to Bertrand Badie, specialist in international relations and professor emeritus at Sciences Po Paris.

Publicity

These announcements fit perfectly with what Joe Biden himself announced before being elected, namely the need to reinvent foreign policy.

The first measures which were announced both by Biden himself and by

Blinken point

precisely in this direction.

There is therefore a change of form, a change in grammar, that does not mean that we should expect spectacular turns, the room for maneuver of Joe Biden remains limited.

There is a very deep nationalism in

American

foreign policy

that is rooted in very noticeable protectionist behavior among the American population.

RFI

: One of the first announcements is that of temporarily suspending current arms sales to the Gulf monarchies.
Can we seriously imagine that it will be canceled after reconsideration?

Bertrand Badie:

First of all, there is an announcement effect.

It is a way of showing its mistrust of regimes that do not really conform to the ideal of human rights - to say the least.

In particular the regime of the United Arab Emirates of the famous MBZ and that of Saudi Arabia of MBS.

As for the modalities, obviously, things will be much more complicated, but that is enough today to reassure the electorate and the international community, to issue a sort of warning to the partners in the Arabian Peninsula, and to send a discreet message to Iran.

Because I think it all plays out there.

Joe Biden's idea is to be able to reconnect with Iran while very quickly obtaining from Tehran a commitment to stop its

uranium enrichment

policy

Iran, for its part, asserts that there is no question of changing until the United States has reinstated the 2015 nuclear agreement. The intermediate formula which seems to be attempted by the administration Biden is to send positive signals so that they trigger positive reactions in Iran and that little by little we get back to the conditions for negotiations.

The problem is not to lose face.

So there is a kind of hide-and-seek game, a part where everyone stands by the goatee.

The idea would seem to be to find in the margins of this agreement the elements that can resolve the situation and set in motion a positive movement.

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To read also: Iranian nuclear: towards a new standoff between Washington and Tehran

In the margins of Iran-US relations there is notably the Yemeni conflict.

Iran supports the Houthi rebels while Saudi Arabia, a great ally of the Americans, leads the international coalition fighting them.

The head of the American diplomacy made several decisions on this subject;

is this a message to Iran again

The structure of Antony Blinken's speech on this subject was very interesting because he tried to send the two sides back to back saying, “

The

Houthis
made the mistake of taking the city of Sanaa and therefore committing a act of aggression

They kind of overthrew the "legal government" that was in place.
But,

adds Blinken,

what the coalition has done is not very clean either, since it has created an extremely serious humanitarian crisis.

The United States was not directly involved in the Yemen war, so it does not need concrete action.

But it is a way of saying “

we do not systematically accept the policy pursued by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies.
We have an independent policy in relation to the conflict that is developing in the region.

This is a way of saying to Iran

You cannot blame us for intervening in this affair and not being neutral.
But it is also up to you, Iranians, to show a certain distance from this conflict.

It is also a subtle way of opening up the very complex dossier of Iran's interventions in the region.

Since you know that besides nuclear itself, there are two burning issues which are the Iranian ballistic program and Iran's interventions in the region.

The United States would like Iran to move on these two issues.

Iran does not want to hear about it.

On the other hand, if the United States explains that it is not a party to this conflict, it is a very discreet way of saying, we are waiting for Iran to prove that it is not a direct party. in this type of regional confrontation.

Another file under review, the commitments offered by Washington in exchange for a rapprochement of four Arab countries with Israel.

Can we, here too, imagine going back on this issue

Biden himself said he did not intend to question this policy of bilateral recognition of four Arab states (

UAE

Bahrain

Morocco

and

Sudan

) from the State of Israel.

So there won't be any break-up to be expected since Biden has said he approves of this somewhat odd barter diplomacy whereby the United States grants a number of advantages to Arab countries which, in return, recognize the State of Israel.

But, there is a second point which is perhaps even more important, and that is that Biden is of course burning with desire to be able to move forward on the Iranian file.

And so he is going to alienate Benjamin Netanyahu.

We feel that there is in Israel a very great mistrust of the intentions attributed to the new tenant of the White House.

So you can't hurt Netanyahu twice.

The concessions that the United States may make to Iran prevent it from moving forward on the Palestinian dossier and from further undermining relations between Washington and Tel Aviv.

So there is not much to look forward to on this file.

Perhaps the F35s promised to the Emirates won't be delivered as easily as expected.

Perhaps the

recognition by the United States

of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara will not be as formalized as one might hope in Rabat.

There will probably be corrections at the margins, but there will certainly not be a profound change in the policy towards

Israel and Palestine

Once again, it is the Palestinians who will bear the brunt of all these deals.

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To read also: Presidency of Biden: for Israelis and Palestinians, very different expectations

American policy in the Middle East: "Everything is played around Iran"

American policy in the Middle East: "Everything is played around Iran"

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