On course to accelerate: IMF improved forecast for Russian economy in 2021 and 2022

The International Monetary Fund has improved its forecast for the Russian economy for 2021.

According to the organization, the country's GDP will increase by 3%.

Moreover, in 2022 this figure will reach 3.9%.

Such data are contained in the IMF World Economic Outlook report, published on Tuesday, January 26.

Earlier, the IMF believed that Russian GDP would grow by 2.8% in 2021 and by 2.3% in 2022.

According to the experts of the fund, by the end of 2020, the Russian economy contracted by 3.6%.

It is noteworthy that earlier the experts of the organization predicted a deeper decline - around 4%.

The improvement in the forecast is largely due to the revival of business and consumer activity in Russia in the second half of 2020.

This point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge at the Higher School of Economics.

According to him, the economy was supported by the weakening of quarantine restrictions, as well as measures of state support for business and the population.

We are talking, for example, about direct payments to families with children, credit holidays, grants and soft loans to enterprises to pay salaries to employees, as well as tax deferrals and exemptions for companies and entrepreneurs.

“Against this background, Russian industry, which accounts for about 30% of the economy, showed less than expected decline at the end of 2020.

The indicator decreased by 2.9% in annual terms, which looks somewhat better than in a number of other countries, ”Ostapkovich stressed.

Note that in total, the authorities have already allocated 4.6 trillion rubles to combat the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as to help citizens and industry.

This was previously stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Moreover, according to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, over the next three years, the country's leadership will allocate about 39 trillion rubles to fulfill a single plan to achieve national goals and develop the economy.

“The focus of our strategy, of course, is the person.

All government measures are aimed at improving the quality of life of citizens of our country, including through the development of health care, support for education, improvement of living conditions and the quality of the environment, ”Mishustin said on January 14 in an address to the Gaidar Forum participants.

According to Georgy Ostapkovich, in 2021 the situation in the Russian economy will mainly depend on the rate of vaccination of the population against COVID-19.

According to the expert, in the event of a successful decrease in the growth rate of the incidence, people will no longer be afraid to go to work, and labor productivity in the country will increase.

At the same time, large-scale vaccination will accelerate the recovery of consumer activity and lead to an increase in demand for goods and services within the country.

This state of affairs will allow enterprises to receive additional funds for their own development and staff expansion, which will have a positive effect on the labor market, Ostapkovich is sure.

“The government should pay particular attention to the real disposable income of the population.

The growth of the indicator should lead to a more efficient revival of key sectors of the economy and at the same time maintain social stability, ”the expert added.

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According to experts, a noticeable rise in oil prices may provide additional support to the Russian economy.

According to the IMF forecast, in 2020 the cost of energy resources in the world has decreased by almost a third, but already in 2021 it can increase by more than 21%.

“The expected rise in commodity prices is associated with the recovery of the global economy and the release of a number of industries to relatively full capacity.

This will result in an increase in global demand for raw materials, and Russia will be able to receive a number of advantages.

In particular, we are talking about a possible strengthening of the ruble exchange rate and a general improvement in the financial situation in the country, "Alexander Abramov, head of the laboratory for the analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Institute for Applied Economic Research, RANEPA, explained to RT.

United front

In its report, the IMF also improved its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 from 5.2% to 5.5%.

The value is expected to become the highest in the last 14 years.

The forecast for 2022 remained unchanged at 4.2%.

Meanwhile, analysts at the organization revised their estimate of the global economic downturn in 2020.

As calculated by the IMF, the volume of world GDP fell by 3.5%, although in the fall the Fund experts predicted a fall of 4.4%.

“The endorsement of a range of vaccines and the mass vaccinations launched in December in some countries give hope for a potential end to the pandemic in the future ... While the pandemic has claimed many lives and the death toll continues to rise, economic activity over time. appears to be adapting to the reduction of direct contact between people, ”says the fund's report.

According to the IMF, in 2021 the GDP of developed countries will grow by 4.3%, and the economies of developing countries - by 6.3%.

At the same time, the highest growth rates can be recorded in India (11.5%) and China (8.1%).

In the US, the value will be 5.1%, and in the eurozone countries - 4.2%, the organization predicts.

“In addition to the effect of vaccination, I think that IMF experts in their assessments are counting on the normalization of relations in global trade.

In particular, experts expect the US trade contradictions to ease with China and Europe, ”noted Alexander Abramov.

It is curious that already in 2022, the GDP growth rates of the USA and the eurozone countries may slow down to 2.5% and 3.6%.

Thus, for the first time in nine years, both indicators may turn out to be lower than in Russia at once, follows from the materials of the IMF.

According to Alexander Abramov, acceleration of global inflation may become one of the main risks for the world economy in the near future.

Note that in 2020, in order to combat the consequences of the pandemic, the central banks of a number of states sharply lowered interest rates, and also began to print money and inject funds into the financial systems of their countries.

The monetary pumping of the economy should accelerate the recovery process, but will lead to an increase in inflation in the world.

“If interest rates remain low, inflation could accelerate even more.

In this case, central banks will have to urgently raise rates, but such a policy can slow down economic growth and lead to a collapse of stock markets, ”the expert added.