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If everything goes as expected, the USA will be one of the first western countries to achieve “No Covid”.
Serious scenarios show that the USA will be approaching herd immunity as early as the beginning of summer.
Around a third of the population should be protected from corona infection by vaccinations by the beginning of July.
Another third could be immunized by having survived corona disease.
As soon as two thirds of the population are immune to infection and spread, all current scientific simulations indicate that the pandemic should expire quickly.
So the Covid-19 spook for the USA should soon be over and over - far earlier than it will be the case in Europe and Germany.
What is happening right now?
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Ironically, the USA is showing most other western democracies how a pandemic can be overcome effectively and quickly - and that after a beginning that was chaotic and catastrophic and caused immensely high numbers of victims and deaths.
But also with the help of a policy that did not anxiously seek salvation for a moment in a defensive “Zero Covid” strategy, shut everything down, put the population in social isolation and the economy in shock freeze.
Rather, an offensive approach was chosen from the start in the USA.
It is undisputed that this initially caused the number of infections and deaths to skyrocket much faster than elsewhere - for example in Germany.
However, it remains to be analyzed in depth what the final balance will look like in the end, if the indirect damage to well-being and mortality to the rest of the health system, the economy and social coexistence is also included.
The “Zero Covid” strategy also has risks
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Because a defensive "Zero Covid" strategy protects people from corona infections, but exposes them to a host of other health risks, such as home schooling and home office, being alone and isolation, cutting social contacts, worries about the job, business closings and economic ones Go hand in hand with losses.
Under the elected President Donald Trump, the conviction dominated in the USA that even in the event of a pandemic, individual fundamental rights must be protected against forced state intervention.
Personal responsibility and self-protection, individual behaviors and personal decisions should also play a dominant role in a pandemic and how to combat it.
Subsequently, after a historically uniquely short period of time, a nationwide vaccination campaign began at top speed, which will now lead to herd immunization faster than anything else.
The irony of a future historical reappraisal of the events is that genetic technology, which has long been promoted in the USA and demonized in Europe, has now been used to redeem the suffering and horror of the Covid 19 virus.
What is the position of many fans of a “Zero Covid” policy on technological progress, on medical, bioscientific and pharmaceutical research - or on genetic engineering as an instrument in the fight against disease or hunger (keyword: golden rice)?
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In the end, it is now clear that it is not a snail shell strategy of general retreat into a blanket standstill that ultimately and sustainably leads to the rapid goal, but trust in adapted human behavior, modern technologies and innovations in vaccines and drugs that are suitable for the masses.
A defensive "Zero Covid" strategy, on the other hand, which relies more on government coercive measures, is threatened with protracted yo-yo effects between excessively strict lockdowns and excessively extensive loosening.
Without any question, “Zero Covid” is the right goal of all societies.
But it cannot be achieved in just one single way, as the emerging successes of the USA show with its different approach to Europe and Germany.
However, as soon as several paths lead to the goal, it must be the task of science to think through the various alternatives, calculate them and compare expectations - so that afterwards society and politics can make those decisions that they consider appropriate.
Now it is taking revenge that at the beginning of the pandemic all critical questions about conceivable lockdown alternatives were too quickly branded as unethical and thus morally reprehensible - just because it really was a matter of life and death.
Failure to search for as many alternatives as possible to a “Zero Covid” strategy means that scientific thinking and political action in Europe and Germany - compared to the USA - are too strongly influenced by defensive lockdown policies.
Data protection is insufficiently addressed
It is the case that until today, exactly one year after the outbreak of the pandemic, too many cause-and-effect relationships are too unknown.
Too much is and remains a poke in the fog of uncertainty and has a symbolic character - just think of the Corona warning app, which is not based on viruses, but on data protection.
Everywhere there is a state of emergency, but of all places where the greatest possible extent can be achieved with exceptional rules, one relentlessly adheres to the ideal state.
If you consider how much personal data is given to the big data companies of social media and online business every day without hesitation, it becomes vital to find a new balance.
This applies to data protection, but also fundamentally to dealing with Corona.
Alternatives to the interplay of “lockdown and relaxation” must also be included as models of thought in the political decision-making processes.
It is simply part of scientific and political honesty to admit that we simply do not know too much.
Much of what is assumed to be causality turns out to be pure correlation after reading the publications.
And some of what is sold as a forecast turns out to be a purely hypothetical scenario, i.e. a possible thought model, but without plausibly demonstrating how likely its realization is.
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“Everything on shares” is the daily stock market shot from the WELT business editorial team. Every morning from 7 a.m. with the financial journalists Moritz Seyffarth and Holger Zschäpitz. For stock market experts and beginners. Subscribe to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Amazon Music and Deezer. Or directly via RSS feed.
In addition, it always remains a question of how the direct and indirect effects of a pandemic and how to combat them are assessed.
This applies to every strategy, but especially to extreme political decisions which, in addition to a large number of faults, also cause an enormous number of far-reaching and sometimes unexpected or anticipated changes in behavior in individual people, their families and in society and the economy as a whole .
If governments only pretend to know what they are doing and thus fail to achieve what they are planning to do, the population is enormously insecure - and in two ways.
On the one hand, the pandemic will then appear even more threatening.
On the other hand, the population is losing confidence in politics and government action.
US strategy should also be examined soberly
Illogical, erroneous, contradicting and obviously ineffective measures undermine the understanding and acceptance of the population for political and social issues.
People get used to the permanent state of emergency and then judge risks all the more wrong.
The consequence can be that a dulled population no longer follows the really important rules.
It is in no way about denying Corona or downplaying the consequences - and also not about imitating US politics as the measure of all good things in Germany.
Covid-19 causes terrible suffering and many tragic deaths.
It is undisputed that an offensive US strategy also involves enormous risks.
But just as indubitable as it is incalculable, a defensive “Zero Covid” strategy will have dramatic after-effects in society and the economy, which will lead to human suffering and victims as well.
What saves lives today can cause more damage and deaths in the sum of all the consequences.
It is therefore worthwhile not to demonize a more offensive “Zero Covid” strategy ideologically or morally, but to examine it soberly and more closely.