GDP exceeded 100 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year
China's economic "V-shaped" rebound in 2020
101 trillion yuan!
The Chinese economy has reached an important milestone.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 18th, my country's gross domestic product (GDP) is 101,5986 billion yuan in 2020, breaking the 100 trillion yuan mark for the first time, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year.
Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said with emotion that the results "are hard to come by but difficult to achieve."
At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still raging around the world, but China's economy has gradually recovered and has come out of a "V-shaped" rebound curve: a year-on-year decline of 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020, a growth of 3.2% in the second quarter, a growth of 4.9% in the third quarter, and a growth in the fourth quarter 6.5%.
If you broaden your perspective to the world, China may be the only major economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth in 2020, and the total economic volume will account for 17% of the world economy.
What is more noticeable than these external indicators is that the internal structure of China's economy is gradually improving.
In 2020, 55.75 million rural poor people will be lifted out of poverty, and absolute poverty will be eliminated historically; per capita GDP has exceeded US$10,000 for the second consecutive year, and economic strength, scientific and technological strength, and comprehensive national strength will leap to a new level; the "13th Five-Year Plan" The successful conclusion, the completion of a well-off society in all respects, victory is in sight.
The total amount exceeds one hundred billion, how does the Chinese economy do it
Last year was an extraordinary year. The new crown pneumonia epidemic raged around the world. Governments of various countries used various measures to try to stabilize the economic course.
However, judging from the current results, only China has really stabilized and handed in a historical answer: GDP increased by 2.3% over the previous year, breaking through the 100 trillion yuan mark for the first time; consumer prices (CPI) ) Rose by 2.5%, which was lower than the previous year’s increase and the expected target for the whole year; under the current standards, the rural poor were all lifted out of poverty, and 832 poor counties were all lifted off. Absolute poverty was eliminated in history; the national per capita disposable income was 32,189 yuan, compared with The actual growth of 2.1% last year was basically in line with economic growth, and the goal of doubling 2010 was achieved on schedule.
Whether it is macroeconomic indicators such as economic aggregates and GDP growth rate, or micro data such as employment, unemployment rate and residents' income, all show the weight of this answer sheet.
The prevention and control of the epidemic is the number one challenge facing the Chinese economy in 2020.
Affected by the epidemic, many industries and companies have pressed the pause button, and the GDP growth rate in the first quarter fell by 6.8% year-on-year. This is an unprecedented experience since the reform and opening up.
The restart after the pause is only a matter of time.
In late March last year, the spread of the local epidemic was basically blocked. In mid-April, the operating rate of enterprises above designated size exceeded 90%.
With the resumption of work and production of enterprises, the flow of personnel from various places, and the busy traffic on the streets, China's economy has followed a "V-shaped" rebound curve in the next three quarters.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Policy Research Institute, said that the actual performance of the Chinese economy in 2020 has exceeded expectations, the development of the three major industries has remained basically stable, and the real economy has steadily recovered. It has withstood the severe test of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and has shown great toughness.
Effective control of the epidemic is the key to supporting the stable recovery of China's economy.
Xu Hongcai pointed out that in the first quarter, both demand and supply were greatly impacted. The central government launched a series of targeted policies in a timely manner. Governments at all levels focused on the work of "six guarantees and six stability", adjusted measures to local conditions and promoted the active implementation of various policies.
Not only are fees and taxes reduced and financial institutions concession to the real economy, but they also innovate policy tools from the macro policy to reach the grassroots and small, medium and micro enterprises to implement the policies.
The epidemic has the most direct impact on small and micro enterprises and low-income people.
Xu Hongcai believes that the targeted control and support policies in 2020 have allowed China's economy to withstand the test, especially helping micro-parties to tide over difficulties.
At the same time, it also provides effective support for the consumption of disadvantaged groups and low-income groups.
Open double loop
The sudden outbreak has tested the flexibility of national policies.
In April 2020, the central government put forward the task of "six guarantees" on the basis of "six stability", and guaranteeing employment, protecting people's livelihood, and protecting market entities were given priority.
After a year of unremitting efforts, the "six stability" and "six guarantees" have been implemented and effective.
In December last year, the urban surveyed unemployment rate of the 25-59 year-old employed population across the country was 4.7%, returning to the level of the same period last year.
In the national general public budget expenditures from January to November, expenditures on social security, employment, housing security, and poverty alleviation related to the “three guarantees” at the grassroots level increased by 9.8%, 9.5%, and 9.2% respectively.
From January to November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.4% year-on-year, maintaining a double-digit growth rate for six consecutive months.
Among the economic data released today, Bai Jingming, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, pays particular attention to employment indicators.
In his view, with the annual economic growth rate of only 2.3%, it is “very difficult” to achieve more than 11 million urban employment increments.
The GDP growth rate is lower than that of the previous year, but the number of jobs is even better than that of the previous year. "This is even more difficult."
"It is precisely because we have maintained such a high growth in employment that the income and consumption of the whole society are relatively stable." Bai Jingming said.
Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood and is also an important part of the new dual-cycle development pattern.
In 2020, the income of urban and rural residents and economic growth will basically be synchronized, and the income of residents nationwide will increase by 2.1%.
The income of rural residents increased by 3.8%, supporting the steady recovery of consumption and the economy.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that despite the impact of the epidemic, the proportion of final consumption expenditure in GDP in 2020 will still reach 54.3%, reaching a relatively high level in recent years.
With the steady recovery of my country's economic operation, the driving force of consumption on economic growth has picked up quarter by quarter.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 3.7 percentage points faster than that in the third quarter; final consumption growth drove economic growth by 2.6 percentage points, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the third quarter.
“Big countries generally focus on domestic demand. Under open conditions, to achieve economic cycles, our proportion is higher than that of the United States and Japan.” Ning Jizhe also pointed out that building a new dual-cycle development pattern requires In opening up, we will make better use of the advantages of the domestic super-large-scale market.
In 2020, the growth of foreign trade has contributed to the recovery of China's economy.
Chinese companies seized market opportunities to expand exports and achieved a trade surplus of US$535.03 billion throughout the year, setting a new high in recent years.
In December last year, China’s exports increased by 18.1%, achieving double-digit growth for three consecutive months; imports increased by 6.5%, maintaining growth for four consecutive months.
Zhao Ping, vice president and researcher of the Research Institute of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, believes that whether it is an internal cycle dominated by domestic consumption or an external cycle represented by import and export, it is an open cycle.
"Amidst the high level of opening up to the outside world, we have not only promoted a sustained and steady rise in domestic demand, but also enabled many foreign trade companies to seize market opportunities." For example, during the epidemic, many countries strictly restricted the export of epidemic prevention materials, but China encouraged The company's expansion of production capacity not only achieved the growth of related product exports, but also contributed to the global fight against the epidemic.
"Time is on China's side"
The huge market with 1.4 billion people bursts with huge demand, which not only promotes domestic economic growth, but also drives the global economy to benefit together.
The Global Economic Outlook report released by the World Bank in January 2021 predicts that the collapse of global economic activity in 2020 will be slightly less severe than previous predictions, mainly because the contraction of developed economies is slightly shallower, while China’s recovery is even greater. Strong.
In this report, the World Bank also predicted that China's economic growth rate will reach 7.9% in 2021.
The "China Economic Assessment and Outlook" report released by the International Monetary Fund in January also predicted the same result.
International organizations' optimism about China's economic prospects stems from the fact that favorable factors supporting economic stability and recovery are still increasing.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with the media that China’s economy has strong resilience and potential, and has a complete industrial system. It is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification and has 1.4 billion people. Market space and strong self-adjustment ability can effectively deal with the impact of the epidemic.
During the epidemic, many new industries, new formats and new models have been applied, which has also promoted the recovery of the economy, transformation and upgrading.
According to Ning Jizhe, China's total R&D investment has reached the second largest in the world, and innovations are emerging, and it has become the world's largest international patent application country. High-tech industries and strategic emerging industries have accelerated their development.
"Our emerging industries are developing well. Whether it is the downward pressure on the economy in the past few years or the impact of the epidemic last year, this has not changed."
Firmly "seeing more" China is also the consensus of people of insight around the world.
Rui Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund "Bridge Water Fund", put forward a point in an online forum last December: During the epidemic, China’s economy rebounded faster, and many outstanding companies The Chinese stock market is listed and has attracted a lot of capital.
In the past year, many international investors have purchased Chinese assets.
According to Morgan Stanley's calculations, in 2020, the net inflow of foreign capital into A shares will reach US$52 billion (approximately 338 billion yuan), of which passive capital inflows will be only US$3.4 billion, and active capital flows will reach US$48 billion.
But Dalio believes that the world's investment in China is still quite insufficient, the world's funds are overinvested in the United States, and many markets such as China are equally attractive.
He will continue to be optimistic about China, and the Chinese market will occupy a "very meaningful" part of Bridgewater's business.
He also emphasized that time is on China's side, and China may do better.
China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily reporter Wang Lin Source: China Youth Daily