(Economic Observation) There are more positive factors, and China's consumption will continue to pick up

　　China News Service, Beijing, January 18th, title: Favorable factors increase, Chinese consumption will continue to pick up

　　China News Agency reporter Chen Su

　　On the 18th, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China in 2020 was 391981 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), a decrease of 3.9% over the previous year.

Although the annual consumption data is still negative, China's consumption has been growing positively for many consecutive months and is on a track of continuous recovery.

The analysis believes that in the context of the increasing number of favorable factors, the prospect of a sustained recovery in China's consumption is promising.

Consumption growth is picking up month by month

　　From January to February 2020, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, China's consumption suffered a severe decline of -20.5%. Subsequently, consumption began to recover under the multiple measures of the government to prevent and control the epidemic and resume production.

Starting from August 2020, consumption data has turned from negative to positive, achieving a V-shaped rebound.

　　In the fourth quarter of 2020, China's consumption continued to maintain positive growth. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, which was 3.7% faster than the third quarter.

In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year and 1.24% month-on-month.

　　"Although China's consumption data in 2020 is still negative, the overall consumer market is showing a trend of picking up month by month." At the China News Agency Forum "China Economic Situation Analysis Conference" held that day, the vice president of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, Researcher Zhao Ping said.

A solid foundation for employment income

　　Behind the continuous recovery of China's consumption is that China's social economy has remained basically stable, and residents' employment and income have increased steadily.

　　Bai Jingming, a researcher and former vice-president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, said that in the context of China’s economic impact in 2020, China’s employment has maintained a relatively high growth rate, even better than the employment situation in 2019, which provides income for residents. It has laid an important foundation for maintaining stable consumption and household consumption.

"Faced with the impact of the epidemic, China's finance has adopted the'three guarantees' measures of safeguarding basic people's livelihood, guaranteeing wages, and guaranteeing operation. They are aimed at stabilizing employment and supporting consumption. The policy is very strong and has played an effective role in delivering charcoal in the snow."

　　Statistics show that in 2020, 11.86 million new jobs will be created in cities and towns in China, which is significantly higher than the expected target of more than 9 million people, achieving 131.8% of the annual target.

In December, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.2%, the same as the same period last year.

　　Residents' income has also achieved steady growth with the support of a series of measures.

In 2020, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents was 32,189 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.7% over the previous year, and a real increase of 2.1% after deducting price factors, basically in line with economic growth.

Online consumption continues to exert strength

　　In 2020, online consumption will suddenly emerge and become an important force driving the recovery of China's consumption.

　　Statistics show that the national online retail sales for the whole year was 11,760.1 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% over the previous year.

Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 975.9 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8%, accounting for 24.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 4.2 percentage points over the previous year.

　　Ning Jizhe said that the trend of digitalization and digital industrialization in China's industries is obvious, which in turn promotes the realization of more online consumption, which has become an innovative driving force for the high-quality development of China's economy.

　　In addition to online consumption, Chinese consumption has some new growth potential.

For example, the sales growth of consumer upgrade products accelerated. In the fourth quarter, the retail sales of communications equipment, cosmetics, and gold, silver and jewellery products of units above designated size increased by 26.0%, 21.2%, and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, up by 16.0 and 7.1 respectively over the third quarter , 5.0 percentage points; rural consumption led the growth. In December, China’s rural retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.9%, 1.5 percentage points higher than that of urban areas; catering revenue turned from negative to positive, and catering revenue increased by 0.4% in December.

Continued recovery prospects are expected

　　Statistics show that the growth rate of consumption in December has declined from the previous month, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the growth rate in November (5%).

Does this data indicate that China's consumption growth is weak?

　　Regarding this data change, Ning Jizhe responded on the same day that the growth rate of China's total social consumer retail sales fluctuated slightly in December, which was affected by the recent epidemic in several places.

But generally speaking, the impact of the recent epidemic on the economy is controllable.

"While consumption continues to increase in production and supply, it can still play a fundamental role in economic development."

　　Zong Liang, chief researcher at Bank of China, said that China has a population of 1.4 billion and a middle class of more than 400 million. The new economy and digital economy are developing well. In addition, China has begun demand-side management. Demand will become an important force in promoting China's future economic development. An important force for world economic growth.

In 2021, China's consumption is expected to usher in a relatively rapid growth, even reaching a growth of about 10%.

　　Zhao Ping suggested that in view of the fact that China's annual consumption growth rate has not yet turned positive, the next step is to continue to expand the scale of the domestic market and promote the continuous recovery of consumption.

Continuously improve people's livelihood, focus on the fundamentals of expanding consumption-stabilizing employment, increasing residents' income, continuously creating a good business environment, promoting supply-side innovation, and stimulating the continuous growth of new consumer demand.

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