What signal does "one less and one more" convey

　　□ Residents' medium- and long-term loans, which mainly consist of residential mortgages, have seen a year-on-year decrease for the first time in many months, indicating that the real estate financial regulatory measures introduced in the previous period are taking effect.

　　□ The medium- and long-term loans of enterprises have maintained a substantial increase in the same period, which shows the policy support for manufacturing investment.

　　The recent financial statistics for 2020 have attracted widespread market attention.

Among them, a more obvious positive change is that the credit structure has been optimized, and the structural characteristics of reducing real estate-related financing and supporting the flow of funds to the real economy have further emerged.

　　According to data, in December 2020, residential sector loans increased by 563.5 billion yuan, an increase of 189.9 billion yuan and 82.4 billion yuan respectively over the previous month and the same period of the previous year. Among them, medium- and long-term loans increased by 439.2 billion yuan, respectively. In the same period last year, there was a decrease of 65.7 billion yuan and 43.2 billion yuan.

Enterprise sector loans increased by 595.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 185.9 billion yuan from the previous month, but an increase of 170.9 billion yuan over the same period last year. Among them, medium and long-term loans increased by 550 billion yuan, an increase of 152.2 billion yuan over the same period last year.

There is a sharp contrast between the "one less and one more".

　　Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, believes that in December 2020, residential medium- and long-term loans, which are mainly composed of residential mortgages, showed a year-on-year decrease for the first time in many months, indicating that the real estate financial regulatory measures introduced in the previous period are taking effect.

The medium- and long-term loans of enterprises have maintained a relatively large growth momentum, which shows the policy support for manufacturing investment.

　　"For the whole year, the cumulative amount of new loans in 2020 will reach 19.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8 trillion yuan over the previous year. This is mainly due to the increase in medium and long-term loans by enterprises to 2.9 trillion yuan. This indicates that there will be more growth in 2020. All of the loans are invested in the real economy, and the proportion of medium- and long-term loans has increased, and the loan direction and term structure have been significantly improved." Wang Qing said.

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, also said that the decrease in residents' new loans shows that the relevant policies to tighten real estate financing are gradually taking effect.

The year-on-year increase in corporate loans indicates that the financial sector continues to increase its support to the real economy. The increase in medium- and long-term loans over the same period of last year indicates that the continuous increase in medium- and long-term loans to manufacturing, small and medium-sized enterprises has been strengthened, and the loan structure has been optimized. .

　　"In December last year, the growth of residential mortgage loans in the medium and long term declined. To a certain extent, it was related to the tightening of the entire regulatory environment for real estate. At the end of last year, two red lines were introduced, which had a certain impact on the growth of mortgage loans. As a result, the market’s expectations for the property market have also cooled.” said Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, and the continued strong pattern of medium and long-term loans by enterprises shows that enterprises are optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery, mainly because the epidemic situation in China continues to be under control. The domestic demand policy is strong, domestic demand is recovering steadily, and corporate profitability continues to improve.

In addition, the gradual rollout of vaccination and the unprecedented support policies of major global economies have improved the expectations of companies on the prospects of global economic recovery.

　　Zhou Maohua said that this "one less and one more" sends two signals. One is that real estate regulation will be normalized and guide real estate companies to optimize the debt structure; the other is to guide financial resources to increase support for weak links and key areas of the real economy.

　　Wang Qing believes that in 2021, the structural monetary policy of "retaining and pressure" will be further exerted. The focus of "guarantee" is technological innovation, small and micro enterprises, and green development. Regulators may introduce new policy tools to guide financial resources. When investing in these areas, "pressure" mainly refers to real estate finance and local government platform financing.

　　"Monetary policy in 2021 must be'stable' and maintain the sustainability of the normal monetary policy space." The People's Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said recently that in terms of total amount, a comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity Reasonable abundance, and maintain the growth rate of broad money (M2) and social financing to basically match the nominal economic growth rate.

In terms of structure, give full play to the precise drip irrigation role of monetary policy tools, and increase financial support for key tasks such as technological innovation, small and micro enterprises, and green development.

(Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Yao Jin)