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Up to 50,000 retail stores are facing the end.
The German Trade Association (HDE) is spreading this horror scenario in the Corona crisis almost like a mantra.
Especially since the second lockdown has caused shops to close again, but at the same time the financial aid promised by the state in return has not reached the companies.
"We urgently ask you to work to ensure that Vice Chancellor Scholz redeems the word for the federal government and that the financial aid arrives in the trade in an uncomplicated, fast and effective way," says a current fire letter from 13 trade associations to Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU).
The HDE forecast is now fueled by a prominent bankruptcy case: the low-cost chain Adler Modemärkte has filed for bankruptcy at the Aschaffenburg district court.
"The renewed Corona-related closure of almost all locations unfortunately left us no other choice," says CEO Thomas Freude.
The lockdown led to another slump in sales and thus to a liquidity gap.
Source: WORLD infographic
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And it was not possible to close the gap that had arisen through a capital injection from state support funds or investors.
Because Adler cannot rely on its majority shareholder: S&E Kapital, behind which Steilmann SE, which has been insolvent for over four years, and the financial investor Equinox, have been trying for months to sell its almost 53 percent stake in any case.
The Adler Modemärkte, which according to their own information operate 171 branches, 142 of them in Germany, are now planning a bankruptcy under self-administration.
In this type of procedure, the board of directors remains in office, but is supported and supervised by a so-called administrator.
The company with its 3350 employees has chosen Christian Gerloff, who already has a lot of experience with insolvencies in the fashion and textile industry: In the past he was already the insolvency administrator at Escada and Laurèl and administrator at the fashion retail chain Wöhrl.
Source: WORLD infographic
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Adler survived the first lockdown with short-time work and a loan secured by a state guarantee.
In the nine-month balance sheet, however, there was already a net loss of 63 million euros with sales falling by more than 30 percent to 239 million euros.
And 2019 was anything but satisfactory for the chain, which is primarily aimed at the 55+ target group.
CEO Freude is nevertheless confident: "We will do everything we can to maintain business operations, to restructure Adler as quickly as possible and to lead it back into a positive future."
Experts do not believe that the Adler case has a signal effect and that a number of other bankruptcies will follow, also in other industries.
And this, although the development so far is already quite paradoxical.
Despite the massive crisis, the number of corporate bankruptcies has even fallen in recent months.
But problems don't always have to result in bankruptcy.
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"Many will simply close and quietly disappear from the market," says Christoph Niering, Chairman of the Association of Insolvency Administrators in Germany (VID).
The Federal Statistical Office recorded almost 13,600 cases in the period from January to October 2020, which is over 26 percent less than a year earlier.
According to experts, the reason for this is the suspension of the so-called obligation to file for bankruptcy until the end of September.
Insolvent companies did not have to report their status to the court as is otherwise required by law.
Reporting obligation suspended again
The numbers appear to increase in November and December, as a current forecast by the statistics agency shows.
There is talk of five percent in November and even 18 percent in December.
"This represents a departure from the previous course of steadily falling number of proceedings since the beginning of the corona pandemic," the office classifies.
However, these forecast figures only relate to the previous month.
In contrast, insolvency registrations are still nine percent lower than in December 2019.
And it will hardly get worse afterwards, believes Patrik-Ludwig Hantzsch.
“The big turnaround is not imminent,” says the head of economic research at Creditreform's credit agency.
After all, the state has long since intervened in bankruptcy law.
This is little more than a statistical effect due to processing times.
In fact, the reporting obligation for January, which was valid again in the fourth quarter, was suspended again - because there were problems with the payment of the November and December aid.
And Federal Justice Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has long been thinking publicly about maintaining this protection for February.
“2021 is a super election year,” comments Hantzsch.
He is therefore expecting further offers of help in the following months.
And he's not alone in that.
The VID also expects political goodwill for troubled companies.
"The bankruptcy process remains state-controlled," says the association boss Niering.
The risk of insolvency increases with each additional day in lockdown.
"The legislature is still trying to avoid a bankruptcy wave."
The big question now is how long he can hold out.
And the election campaign will certainly play a decisive role in this in the coming months.
Both VID and Creditreform consider this to be dangerous.
"The state aid means that a large number of companies remain on the market that were actually no longer viable regardless of the Corona crisis," says economic researcher Hantzsch.
The word “zombie company” has therefore been around for a long time.
This refers to companies that should have been bankrupt long ago, but which are artificially kept alive through aid money or cheap loans.
"Bankruptcies are an important mechanism for protecting the economy," explains Hantzsch.
"Companies without a sustainable business model have to be taken off the market or completely restructured so that the German economy as a whole remains competitive even after Corona." Corona guarantees or a strengthening of the loss prevention principle are therefore better than the current methods based on the watering can principle. or withdrawal.