“It depends more on oil.
In order for the exchange rate to remain in the range of 70-80 rubles, oil should be at current levels approximately, that is, not $ 55-56 per barrel.
If oil still grows, there are reasons to count on it tactical (OPEC + deal) and strategic, because our renewal of reserves in new fields just requires a price of $ 65-70.
It is quite possible that by the end of the year we will have not $ 55 per barrel, but at least $ 65, ”Adamidov said.
At the same time, according to the economist, a number of analysts predict a fall in the dollar over the next year.
“Analysts make forecasts, but it depends on what to make these forecasts from.
For example, Goldman Sachs at the end of last year said that the dollar will fall by 17% ... If this happens, it will be in the region of 62-65.
It is necessary to monitor the dynamics of oil, but it seems to me that the ruble exchange rate will be higher, ”the specialist believes.
On January 5, the countries participating in the OPEC + deal agreed to amend the terms of the agreement.
In February and March, Saudi Arabia and a number of other states will reduce oil production by more than 1.4 million barrels per day.
At the same time, Russia and Kazakhstan will be able to increase the production of raw materials by 75 thousand barrels per day.