A restaurant closed during confinement, in Paris on October 30, 2020. -

CHINA NOUVELLE / SIPA

  • Restaurant owners now know that they will not be able to reopen on January 20, and Jean Castex confirmed on Thursday that nothing would be considered before mid-February.

    Professionals therefore fear a wave of bankruptcies in the coming months.

  • The year 2020 was a record year in this area, but in reverse: the figures have never been so low for at least ten years.

    “On a drip,” even non-viable businesses were able to survive.

  • The Economic Analysis Council tempers the catastrophic announcements of professionals and considers an increase in bankruptcies more moderate than announced.

Containment, curfews, administrative closures ... Since the start of the Covid-19 epidemic, the more than 200,000 restaurants in France have not been spared.

Their reopening on January 20 is already no more than a fallen hope after the announcements of Jean Castex Thursday evening, and here they are again without any visibility.

Despite the aid provided by the State, which should be deepened, professionals in the sector therefore promise a tsunami of bankruptcy filings.

But what proportion are we talking about?

Can we already estimate this predicted disaster?

2020, calm in the storm

According to a survey carried out in November by representative organizations of the sector (GNC, GNI, Umih, SNRTC), restaurant owners are 65.8% to fear having to go out of business in 2021. At the beginning of the week, their representatives were received in Bercy.

They came out with some hopes, as Didier Chenet, president of the GNI, explained: "We felt a very clear, very firm support from Bruno Le Maire".

But the forecasts are catastrophic.

Senator Serge Babary (LR), relayed by Publicsenat.fr, estimates that 40% of bars and restaurants may not reopen.

Data for 2020 contradict these predictions.

According to the Altares firm, the number of business bankruptcies reached a historically low level last year: 1,836 for traditional catering “excluding fast food” (against 3,037 in 2019).

The same goes for the Banque de France, which announced a 34.7% drop in business failures in the sector in November compared to 2019. But these statistics are misleading.

"The aid provided by the State in the face of the crisis [solidarity fund, tax credits, loans guaranteed by the State, partial unemployment, etc.] keeps companies on a drip, thus tempers Hubert Jan, president of Umih catering .

Even those that would not have been viable in a normal economic context.

The operation of the commercial courts, slowed down by the various confinements, has also postponed judicial liquidations.

A rebalancing by 2021 or 2022

Result: professionals fear "an earthquake" on reopening, if the aid tap is cut off at that time.

For Hubert Jan, it is the rents that could swallow them up.

In particular because the tax credit offered by the government to donors to delay deadlines has been abandoned, failing to have convinced them.

"When legal security breaks, the donors will claim their due and send those who cannot pay to the commercial court", continues Hubert Jan.

And with insurance?

“We're going to fight again.

They refuse to compensate our operating losses because the word "pandemic" is not written.

We have set up a platform to bring up all the contracts and we are going to counter-attack.

"

Philippe Martin, president of the Economic Analysis Council (CAE), also sees a wave of bankruptcy by 2021-2022: “The drop in turnover and corporate debt are not deceiving.

But above all he sees the signs of a catch-up.

Understand: institutions that “should” file for bankruptcy in 2020 will be added to those in 2021.

The economist also tempers the catastrophic figures put forward by the profession: “We are considering an increase of 26% in the number of bankruptcies compared to a normal year.

»In catering, the failure rate of a« normal »year is 2% on average.

With this increase, this rate would rise to less than 3%.

Far, therefore, from the 40, 50 or 60% announced by some.

Avoid bankruptcy in the interest of all

This hypothesis is, however, a scenario in which all economic players agree to restructure the debt.

Restaurants continue to receive aid after their reopening (a request from professional organizations), and banks benefit from tax credits in exchange for debt reduction or forgiveness, for example.

According to Philippe Martin, these same banks have every interest in subscribing to this scheme rather than wanting to recover their assets too quickly, "at the risk of putting viable companies in difficulty and pulling the rug out from under their feet. their own business.

Because even if they wanted to drag the restaurateurs before a commercial court, between salaries, URSSAF and the Fisc, the banks know that there would not be much to recover.

The problem of the lack of cash at the reopening remains to be resolved.

Cash that would allow restaurants to revive by paying wages and restocking inventory.

“Difficulties to anticipate” for Philippe Martin, who bases his hypothesis on a possible opening in the coming weeks: “If we maintained the closure for another 5 or 6 months, it could become critical.

"

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  • Economy

  • Coronavirus

  • Covid 19

  • Confinement

  • Bankruptcy

  • Jean Castex

  • Restaurant