Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 6th, the new year, the RMB exchange rate has made a good start.
As of the 6th, the central parity of the renminbi exchange rate recorded a second consecutive rise, and on the 6th it rose by 156 basis points to 6.4604, a record high since June 20, 2018.
Screenshot of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center
On the first trading day of 2021 (January 4), the onshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar gapped open by 200 points, and recovered the 6.50, 6.49, 6.48, 6.47, and 6.46 points in the intraday trading, the highest rise to 6.4579 yuan, a record of 2018 New high since June 20.
The offshore renminbi to US dollar exchange rate broke through the 6.45 mark first, rising to 6.4417 yuan.
On the same day, the onshore renminbi closed at 6.4620 yuan against the U.S. dollar in night trading, up 663 basis points from the day and night closing of the previous trading day.
On the 5th, the RMB continued to perform well.
The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar surpassed three hurdles, once regaining the 6.43 mark, setting a new high in more than two and a half years.
However, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate quickly narrowed near noon and remained volatile in the afternoon.
The closing price of the onshore renminbi ended slightly lower at 6.4640 yuan.
Since the New Year, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have both returned to the 6.4 era, and the onshore RMB has risen by more than 700 points in the past two days.
It is worth noting that although the central parity rate of the renminbi rose by 648 basis points on the 5th, there was still a difference of 132 basis points from the closing price of the renminbi against the dollar at 16:30 on the 4th.
Wang Youxin, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that this has released a signal that the exchange rate does not want to continue to appreciate sharply, and that the exchange rate fluctuates steadily.
As of the press release on the 6th, the offshore renminbi was quoted at 6.4336 against the US dollar.
The dollar index rose slightly to near 89.52.
The appreciation of the renminbi at the beginning of the new year continues the momentum of 2020.
For the whole year of 2020, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose by 4264 points, an appreciation rate of about 6.71%, which was close to the 2017 level, ending the “two consecutive depreciations” in 2018 and 2019.
On January 6, 2020, the onshore renminbi closed at 6.9768 yuan against the US dollar at night.
Based on this calculation, the exchange rate of 10,000 U.S. dollars will save more than 5,000 yuan now than a year ago.
Looking forward to the trend of the RMB exchange rate in 2021, Industrial Research believes that the appreciation cycle of the RMB exchange rate from the second half of 2020 is likely to continue to the first half of 2021; in the second half of the year, focusing on changes in the US dollar index and the rate of decline in the scale of social financing, the RMB may appreciate The trend turned into a shock trend.
Qu Qiang, assistant to the director and researcher of the Institute of International Monetary Studies, Renmin University of China, analyzed the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar may continue to rise, and it is expected that it may fluctuate in the range of 6.1-6.3 in 2021. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)