Chinanews.com, Beijing, January 6th (Liu Liang) The "Guanghua Ideological Power" Macroeconomic Forecasting Task Force of the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University recently released a report on the analysis of China's economic situation in 2021 "Economy is recovering steadily, and reform is gaining momentum" .
According to the report, China's economy is expected to continue its strong recovery in 2021.
Under the new development pattern, many areas of China's economy and society still have a lot of room for development.
The report was written by Liu Qiao, Dean of Guanghua School of Management, and Hue, associate professor of the Department of Applied Economics, Guanghua School of Management.
Under the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the world economy has been hit hard.
The report pointed out that the number of newly diagnosed cases in European and American countries is still at a high level. In the short to medium term, the epidemic will still put pressure on the global economy to some extent.
With the acceleration of global vaccine research and development, the report believes that the world economy is expected to generally show recovery growth this year, but the GDP growth rate is expected to be lower than the normal economic growth level assuming no epidemic.
According to the report, although countries have successively approved vaccines and announced vaccination plans, the production, distribution, logistics, and injection of vaccines will still take 1-2 quarters. It is expected that China’s exports in the first half of this year are expected to remain resilient; China’s manufacturing industry The investment is expected to maintain a normal replenishment of inventory.
According to the report, the future trend of China's economy is closely related to the trend of China's economic structural transformation and the demand for industrial upgrading.
Consumption will play an increasingly important role.
Under the new development pattern, China will gradually shift from a growth model that relies on exports, infrastructure and real estate investment to a new pattern where consumption is the main growth driver.
At the same time, the report pointed out that the new consumption generated by the modern network technology innovation has a faster development speed and has a more significant effect on the economy. It is an important force for future consumption upgrades.
And with the advancement of the market-oriented reform of factors, the flow of labor is further smoothed. After solving the problem of the consistency between the work place and the residence of the urban population, China will be able to better release the consumption potential, especially to promote service consumption.