When a state of emergency is declared, private think tanks and others have announced a series of estimates that the Japanese economy will reduce its annual GDP = gross domestic product by about 0.3% to 0.8% due to a decrease in personal consumption.
Five companies, including a private think tank, estimated the impact on the economy if an emergency declaration was issued to one metropolitan area and three prefectures for about a month.
According to this, personal consumption will be greatly reduced by refraining from going out unnecessarily and urgently, and the business hours of restaurants will be shortened, which will reduce the annual GDP from 0.3% to 0.88%.
This is a drop of 1.4 trillion yen to 4.89 trillion yen in terms of amount.
Of these, the Dai-ichi Seimei Keizai Kenkyusho estimates that 75,000 people may be unemployed six months after the state of emergency is declared, and points out that "significant damage is expected."
In addition, Nomura Securities, Nomura Research Institute, and Daiwa Institute of Research have indicated that the GDP growth rate for the three months from January to March is "likely to be negative."
On the other hand, there are some who think that the situation in the target area and overseas economies will be different from last year's state of emergency, so it may not be as big as last April to June.