Although the Japanese economy, which has been depressed by the effects of the new coronavirus, is heading for recovery, there are many views that it will be difficult to realize the government's outlook that it will recover to pre-infection levels in the first half of next year.
Governments continue to face difficult decisions on how to balance the spread of infection with economic activity.
According to the forecast of 35 private economists compiled by the Japan Center for Economic Research, Japan's economic growth rate will be minus 5.37% in real terms excluding price fluctuations this year and Reiwa 2. While it is declining, it is expected to recover to + 3.42% in the new fiscal year.
This is because we expect that restrictions on economic activities will be gradually eased, "personal consumption" will increase, and "exports" will increase, centering on electronic components for China and automobiles for the United States.
The predicted growth rate will be the highest level since 1995, which is comparable, but it will not reach the "4.0%" expected by the government, and the economy will be infected in the first half of next year and Reiwa 4th year. There are many views that it is difficult to realize the government's outlook that it will recover to the level before expansion.
The government will continue to face difficult decisions on how to prevent the spread of infection and balance economic activity and put the Japanese economy on a recovery track.