display
Germans are afraid of financial hardship.
Because the Corona crisis is now affecting a number of households, sometimes very sensitively.
At the end of the pandemic year 2020, only every third German citizen described their own economic situation as positive.
There are as few as last in 2009, in the middle of the financial crisis at the time.
This is shown by the annual survey on consumer sentiment by the consulting company EY, which WELT is exclusively available to.
Source: WORLD infographic
And the outlook is anything but rosy: just 16 percent of the 1,000 or more consumers surveyed by telephone in November expect their financial situation to improve in 2021.
It has never been less since the first survey in 2008.
display
"The pandemic and the massive economic downturn in the meantime have left their mark: There is a certain degree of uncertainty among German citizens, more and more people are wondering how long their own job will be safe," comments Ev Bangemann, Head of Retail and Consumer Goods EY.
In fact, worries about one's own job are increasing - across all age and income groups.
Only 35 percent of those surveyed consider their job to be “very safe” - which is a new low.
Source: WORLD infographic
For comparison: in 2018, half of the German population felt completely safe, in 2016 it was even two-thirds.
display
At least 52 percent still believe in the current survey that their job is “more secure”.
"Rather unsafe" or even "very unsafe" are a total of 13 percent, a similarly high value was last seen seven years ago.
The emerging fear of loss of income and job losses is also confirmed by GfK market researchers, who examine the consumer climate on a monthly basis and refer to the recent lockdown as a “difficult phase” in their current January barometer.
The shutdown of public life means noticeably more short-time work due to closings.
“And that leads to a loss of income for the employees concerned,” says GfK expert Rolf Bürkl.
display
In addition, it is to be feared that even more companies will face the risk of bankruptcy.
"But this increases the fear of job loss and has a negative impact on income prospects."
In any case, GfK does not see a rapid turnaround.
And the EY survey also indicates great skepticism.
Although at least a number of young people still expect a better personal financial situation in 2021, this group also includes young professionals whose wallets will inevitably get bigger.
With increasing age, however, confidence wanes that one's own economic situation will improve in 2021.
And in the age groups 56 and over, the pessimists predominate.
There is also a dichotomy with regard to income classes: while high and high earners are above-average optimistic, the outlook for low-income earners is devastating.
Larger purchases have to wait
Behind this is a critical look at the economic situation.
Only 20 percent of those surveyed expect the economic situation in Germany to improve in 2021, while one in three expects a deterioration.
Especially since the vast majority of German citizens expect that the domestic economy will need several years to overcome the Corona crisis.
After all, 36 percent of consumers believe that a full recovery will not be possible until 2023 at the earliest.
In view of this uncertain development, many households want to cut back in the coming months.
display
The EY study says that savings should be made primarily for larger individual purchases such as cars, kitchens or sofas, but also for entertainment electronics and renovation work in the house and apartment.
Consumers want to spend noticeably more money on food and clothing alone.
When it comes to holidays, visits to restaurants and car trips, savings plans and planned increases in spending are balanced.
For large parts of the retail sector, this is not good news, especially after many businesses have been hit because some of the all-important Christmas business has canceled.
The German Retail Association (HDE) is already expecting up to 50,000 bankruptcies in retail.
But there still seems to be hope for the battered industries.
Because despite the poor prospects and expectations, the Germans will not let their joie de vivre be taken away.
After all, three out of four consumers are generally optimistic about the future in the medium to long term - with younger people (up to 45 years of age) being a little more confident than older people (56 years and over).
"The basic confidence of most German citizens cannot be emphasized enough," says EY expert Bangemann, "because from this we can conclude how things will continue after the hard months of lockdown and ongoing restrictions ahead of us all."
If the situation relaxes in the course of 2021 and more and more people are vaccinated, there will be a lot of catching up to do - and an immense demand for holidays, events and culture - but also for shopping experiences.
"Until then, we have to hold out," says Bangemann.
The Munich Ifo Institute sees it similarly.
Their researchers assume that consumers have saved around 100 billion euros in the past few months because of canceled trips or forcing them not to visit restaurants.
display
And at least part of this backed-up purchasing power could flow into consumption in 2021 and bring some recovery.
The basic requirement, however, seem to be nationwide vaccinations against the coronavirus - which, however, will likely take several months until the majority of the population is effectively protected.
At least the start is made.
Vaccinations have been taking place in this country since December 27, but there is widespread skepticism about the active ingredient.
According to a survey by the polling institute YouGov, 32 percent of those questioned want to be immunized as soon as possible.
Another 33 percent are also determined, but first want to wait and see possible consequences of the vaccination for others.
19 percent have decided against a vaccination, 16 percent are still undecided.
The results of the respondents in the EY survey fit this, according to which the fear of illness in relation to one's own financial situation has skyrocketed.
According to this, 36 percent of German citizens are very afraid of a possible illness, with a further 44 percent they are still slight fears.
Only 20 percent are carefree in this regard.
Source: WORLD infographic
Concern about environmental pollution is just as high with a total of 75 percent.
Only then will the cost of living rise by around 67 percent and energy prices and the economic slowdown in Germany by 67 percent each.
The refugee crisis in Europe, on the other hand, seems to employ fewer and fewer people: This issue worries 56 percent of people in Germany - that's nine percentage points less than a year ago.