The recovery of live pig production exceeds expectations, and pork prices are expected to stabilize after a small increase
"From the perspective of the New Year's Day and Spring Festival situation, the production capacity and supply of the main'vegetable basket' varieties are guaranteed. If a wide range of low-temperature rain and snow disasters do not occur, the possibility of significant price fluctuations is expected to be unlikely." Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Market and Information Technology Department Director Tang Ke said recently that from the current situation, the total supply of grain and major agricultural products in my country is sufficient, and the market is basically operating normally.
Among them, live pig production capacity continues to recover, and pork prices are expected to stabilize after a slight increase.
Wei Hongyang, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced that as of the end of November 2020, the national breeding sow stock has increased for 14 consecutive months, and the live pig stock has increased for 10 consecutive months. The national pig stock and the breeding sow stock have been increased Restored to more than 90% of the normal level.
It is expected that the pork supply during the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival will increase significantly compared to the same period in 2019. The pork price may rise slightly due to the demand before the Spring Festival, and stabilize and fall after the Spring Festival.
In recent times, the pork market supply has continued to improve. The price of pork in the national bazaar has dropped from 59.64 yuan per kilogram in February last year to about 48 yuan.
It is understood that the country's live pig slaughter has increased for 9 consecutive months. In November 2020, it increased by 16% month-on-month and 66.1% year-on-year, which is the most slaughter month since the bottom of the pig production capacity in the fourth quarter of 2019.
With the release of new production capacity in the early stage, pork prices have fallen for three consecutive months.
In November 2020, the price of pork in national bazaars dropped to 46.3 yuan per kilogram.
At present, the recovery of live pig production has exceeded expectations.
"According to this trend, production capacity is expected to be fully restored in the first half of this year." Wei Hongyang said that according to the six-month fattening cycle, the slaughter of pigs in the second half of 2021 may reach the level of normal years, and the supply of pigs will be greatly improved.
In addition, with the rapid rise of a large number of high-level large-scale pig farms, it is expected that the scale-up rate of pig farming will reach about 57% in 2020, an increase of 4 percentage points from 2019 and much higher than the normal growth rate of 2 percentage points.
The pig industry is the pillar industry of my country's animal husbandry. Its output value accounts for one-third of the total output value of the animal husbandry industry, and pork production accounts for nearly two-thirds of the meat output. The price of pork is closely related to the consumer price level. Work is related to national economy and people's livelihood. In this regard, Wei Hongyang said that with the approach of New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, consumer demand will increase significantly, and pressure on pork supply will still exist. According to previous data calculations, pork supply during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival in 2021 will both increase by about 30% over the same period in 2020. Supply security will be further strengthened, and pork prices are expected to be lower than the same period in 2020. (Reporter Zhu Junbi)