The real estate loan concentration management system is here, how do banks lend?

How to get the property market?

　　China-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 1 (Xue Yufei, Wei Wei) On the afternoon of December 31, 2020, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Establishing a Centralization Management System for Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions" (hereinafter referred to as the notice) , According to factors such as the asset scale and type of banking financial institutions, the management requirements for real estate loan concentration will be set in stages.

The notice will be implemented from January 1, 2021.

　　Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, pointed out that in the past few years, the growth rate of real estate loans, especially personal mortgage loans, was significantly higher than the average loan growth rate. After the implementation of the system, the growth rate of mortgage loans may return to the average loan growth rate. , Or even lower than the latter, which means that new loan funds may flow more into the real economy such as manufacturing and small and micro enterprises.

　　As for the impact on the real estate market, the Shell Research Institute analyzed that the "three red lines" of real estate companies are managed on the capital demand side, and the centralized management system of "mortgage-related loans" is tightened on the capital supply side.

The current management ratio requirements are basically in line with the situation in 2020, which means that there will be no significant changes in the loan quotas placed on the market in 2021, and it will not have a major impact on the real estate market in the short term.

Support the development of the manufacturing industry and other sectors to tighten the supply side of the property market

Data map: Bank of China.

Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei

　　The real estate loan concentration management system means that the proportion of real estate loan balance and the proportion of personal housing loan balance of Chinese-funded legal person banking financial institutions established in China should meet the management requirements determined by the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, that is, not high The corresponding upper limit determined by the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.

The People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission set the management requirements for real estate loan concentration in different stages according to the asset scale and type of banking financial institutions.

　　Regarding the establishment of a real estate loan concentration management system, the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission pointed out in a reporter’s question that the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have studied and formulated a real estate loan concentration management system based on international experience and combined with China’s national conditions to improve the financial system. Resilience and robustness promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

At the same time, promote the structural reform of the financial supply side, strengthen the internal constraints of banking financial institutions, optimize the credit structure, support key areas of economic and social development such as manufacturing, technology, and small and micro businesses, agriculture, rural areas and other weak links to promote financing, and promote the same entity in finance and real estate. Balanced economic development.

"At present, China's real estate building long-term mechanism to achieve significant results, real estate loans (including individual housing loans) accounted for the proportion of outstanding loans at around 29 percent, but some banking institutions accounted for is too high, far above average."

Livelihood Wen Bin, chief researcher of the bank, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that in order to further enhance the financial services of the real economy, especially to increase support for key areas and weak links such as manufacturing, technological innovation, green finance, and small and micro enterprises, the establishment of The real estate loan concentration management system is not only timely but also very necessary. It is conducive to optimizing the credit structure, promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market, and maintaining the safe and stable operation of the financial system.

　　Shell Research Institute analysis believes that the main purpose of restricting real estate credit from the capital side is to reduce and prevent real estate financial risks, and promote the balanced development of real estate, finance and the real economy.

In the past period of time, the proportion of real estate involved in financial credit was relatively high, which not only increased the leverage of enterprises and residents, but also squeezed out social credit resources, which was not conducive to the construction of a large domestic cycle.

Real estate loan growth may return to average loan growth

　　Real estate loan concentration management requirements.

Source: "Notice on Establishing a Centralization Management System for Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions"

　　Specifically, the notice divides the banking financial institutions into five tiers. The first tier is large Chinese banks, including China Construction, Transportation and Postal Savings of Industry and Agriculture and China Development Bank. The upper limit of the proportion of real estate loans is 40%, and the upper limit of the proportion of personal housing loans. The second tier is Chinese-funded medium-sized banks, including 2 policy banks, the Agricultural Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank, 12 national joint-stock banks, and 3 city commercial banks from the Bank of Beijing, Bank of Shanghai and Bank of Jiangsu. Real estate loans account for The upper limit of the ratio is 27.5%, and the upper limit of the proportion of personal housing loans is 20%.

　　The third tier of banking financial institutions includes small Chinese banks and non-county rural cooperative institutions, including city commercial banks (excluding city commercial banks in the second tier), private banks, large, medium and urban rural cooperative institutions, and real estate The upper limit of the proportion of loans is 22.5%, and the upper limit of the proportion of personal housing loans is 17.5%; the fourth tier is county agricultural cooperative institutions, the upper limit of the proportion of real estate loans is 17.5%, and the upper limit of the proportion of personal housing loans is 12.5%; the fifth tier is For rural banks, the upper limit for real estate loans is 12.5%, and the upper limit for personal housing loans is 7.5%.

According to incomplete statistics from the Enterprise Warning Pass, as of the first half of 2020, among the six state-owned banks, the personal housing loans of China Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank of China accounted for 34.27% and 33.64%, respectively, slightly higher than the 32.5% limit in the first tier. .

In addition, Industrial Bank's personal housing loans accounted for 25.67%, which is also higher than the second-tier 20% ceiling.

　　"From the perspective of listed banks, the large banks have basically met the standards. Two banks have slightly exceeded the standards for personal loans, but the magnitude is not high and the adjustment pressure is not great. As long as the loan scale is enlarged, the real estate loan quota does not need to be reduced, and the proportion is Can come down." Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, pointed out to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client.

He further stated that some joint-stock banks, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in the second, third, and fourth tiers may face exceeding or close to the standard. Such banks should pay attention to the increase in loans in the real estate sector.

　　Zheng Chenyang, Bank of China Research Institute, stated that most commercial banks’ two indicators did not exceed the upper limit. Some joint-stock banks may face personal housing loans exceeding the limit in the total loan balance, exceeding the limit by about 4-5 percentage points, but the pressure is not great. .

Exceeding banks may have two strategies. In the numerator, they can increase the circulation of real estate credit, naturally not renewing them at maturity to reduce the balance of real estate loans, and in the denominator, they can increase the amount of credit to increase the total loan balance.

Zeng Gang believes that in the past few years, the growth rate of real estate loans, especially personal mortgage loans, was significantly higher than the average loan growth rate. After the implementation of the system, the growth rate of mortgage loans may return to the average loan growth rate, or even lower than the latter. This means that new loan funds will flow more into the real economy such as manufacturing and small and micro enterprises.

　　For some banks that still have room for the upper limit, Zeng Gang said that although there is room, the growth rate of their real estate loans, especially personal mortgage loans, will not be significantly higher than the average loan growth rate.

　　However, Zheng Chenyang believes that the scope of real estate loan balance needs to be clarified. It is necessary to support reasonable real estate loans while avoiding the gray space of the regulatory zone.

"Whether SPV non-standard projects, real estate bonds or ABS and non-capital guaranteed financial investment loans to the real estate sector should be included in the scope of supervision requires careful consideration." He analyzed that if the above loan indicators are not included, financial institutions and real estate companies can increase real estate SPV non-standard projects, real estate bonds or ABS, non-guaranteed wealth management, etc. bypass the regulatory red line, but if the above indicators are included, the regulatory pressure on commercial banks' credit business will further increase.

Will not have a big impact on the property market in the short term, policies encourage development and ownership

Data map: buildings.

Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the financial prudential management system has been repeatedly mentioned in recent years, and the illegal use of funds in the real estate market often affects the stability of the financial system to a certain extent. Help regulate the real estate market.

According to the analysis of Shell Research Institute, the "three red lines" of real estate enterprises are management on the fund demand side, and the centralized management system of "mortgage-related loans" is tightening on the fund supply side.

The current management ratio requirements are basically in line with the situation in 2020, which means that there will be no significant changes in the loan quotas placed on the market in 2021.

The institute also stated that the new regulations will not have a major impact on the real estate market in the short term.

First, the set quota ratio is basically in line with the situation in 2020.

As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, the balance of commercial real estate loans accounted for 28.8% of the loan balances of financial institutions, and the balance of personal housing loans accounted for 19.8% of the loan balances of financial institutions, which was lower than the average Management target limits.

From practical experience, large and medium-sized banks are the main force in China's real estate loans.

The current management ratio requirements are basically in line with the situation in 2020, which means that the total amount of loans placed on the market in 2021 will not change significantly, but there may be certain changes in the structure of large, medium and small banks; second, the new regulations A transition period is set for the actual situation of the bank. The higher the management requirements are, the longer the transition period will be, so that the bank and the lender have enough time to make stable adjustments and avoid excessive changes.

　　The above notice stated that at the end of December 2020, if the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans of banking financial institutions exceeds the management requirements and exceeds 2 percentage points, the business adjustment transition period is 2 years from the implementation date of this notice; 2% or more, the business adjustment transition period is 4 years from the date of implementation of this notice.

The business adjustment transition period for the proportion of real estate loans and the proportion of personal housing loans were set separately.

　　In addition, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that in order to support the vigorous development of the housing leasing market, housing leasing-related loans are temporarily not included in the calculation of the proportion of real estate loans.

At present, the People's Bank of China is working with relevant departments to study and formulate opinions on housing leasing finance business and establish a corresponding statistical system. By then, housing leasing-related loans that meet the definition will not be included in the scope of concentration management statistics.

"This is an important change in direction, that is, in the future, financial credit policies will not encourage development and sales, but will encourage development and holding, and guide developers from a high turnover and high leverage model to a long-term business model." Shell Research Institute analyzed

.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract or use in other ways.