[2020 Economy and People’s Livelihood Year-end Special Paper (Part 1)] China’s economic transformation code behind the "troika"
In the first quarter, GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year.
This is the first quarterly contraction in the Chinese economy since 1992.
In the second quarter, GDP grew by 3.2% year-on-year; in the third quarter, GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year.
In the first three quarters, GDP grew by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive. The growth rate of a number of major indicators such as the value-added of industries above designated size and total imports and exports of goods turned positive for the first time this year.
International institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank predict that China will become the only major economy in the world to achieve positive GDP growth this year.
From the worries of the market at the beginning of the year, to the economic performance that exceeded expectations in the middle of the year, to the signals of stable recovery from various data at the end of the year, the resilience and vigorous vitality of the Chinese economy are amazing.
From the orders of several commodities such as excavators, containers, and new energy vehicles, one can observe the "troika" that drives China's economy, give a glimpse of the road to China's economic recovery in 2020, and explore the code for its change from negative to positive.
Nearly 300,000 excavators open the way for infrastructure
From January to November, a total of 296,000 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 37.4%.
Among them, domestic sales were 265,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%.
This is the excavator sales data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association.
Industry insiders predict that the sales volume of excavators this year is expected to approach 300,000 units.
Excavators are not only used in traditional infrastructure fields such as bridge repair and road paving, but small excavators are also used in new infrastructure fields such as 5G base station construction and charging pile construction.
In many analyses, excavator sales are considered an important window to observe the vitality of China's economy.
Pan Helin, executive dean of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said that excavators are closely related to infrastructure projects, and their sales are often regarded as an important leading indicator for judging the development of the infrastructure industry.
The data on infrastructure investment coincides with the increase in excavator sales.
According to data provided by the Ministry of Transport, in 2020, fixed-asset investment in transportation will grow against the trend, and it is estimated that the annual fixed-asset investment will be 3,424.7 billion yuan.
Among them, 778 billion yuan for railways, 2541.7 billion yuan for highways and waterways, and 105 billion yuan for civil aviation.
According to data provided by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, my country’s cumulative 5G base stations have already completed the 500,000 targets set at the beginning of the year...
In addition, sales of excavators clearly reflect the resumption of work and production.
According to data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in the first two months of this year, sales of excavators totaled 19,200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 37%.
In March, the monthly sales volume was 49,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%.
At that time, various infrastructure projects were resuming work in an orderly manner.
Among them, data provided by the Ministry of Transport in April showed that the resumption rate of 625 key transportation construction projects exceeded 97%.
This year’s government work report puts forward that it will focus on supporting the “two new and one heavy” constructions, mainly new infrastructure construction, new urbanization construction, and major construction of transportation and water conservancy projects.
Among them, transportation has played an important pioneering role in stabilizing investment and employment.
Wu Chungeng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Transport, previously stated that the high-level operation investment has played an important supporting role for the "six stability" work and the implementation of the "six guarantee" tasks.
Observing the economic data for 2020, in the "troika" driving economic growth, investment is the first to "turn positive".
In the second quarter, national fixed asset investment increased by 4.8% year-on-year.
240 million TEU witnessed the recovery of foreign trade
According to the data provided by the Ministry of Transport, in the first 11 months, the national ports completed a total cargo throughput of 13.24 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.
Among them, foreign trade cargo throughput was 4.13 billion tons, a year-on-year growth rate of 4.2%.
The cumulative container throughput was 240 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, which was the first time that the cumulative positive growth was achieved during the year.
Shipping is the main channel of international freight. More than 90% of China's foreign trade import and export freight volume is completed by sea. Last year, this proportion was as high as 95%.
Therefore, the container, which is the standard carrier of international cargo transportation, is also regarded as the vane of foreign trade development.
Corresponding to container throughput data is foreign trade data.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, in the first November, my country's foreign trade imports and exports increased by 1.8% in RMB and 0.6% in US dollars, both achieving positive growth.
Judging from the trend of the whole year, after a sharp decline in the first quarter and a stabilization in the second quarter, my country's foreign trade ushered in a full recovery in the third quarter. Foreign trade imports and exports continued to improve, especially exports further accelerated.
According to data monitored by the China Ports Association, affected by this, the container throughput growth rate of the eight major hub ports has continued to rebound since June, and the cumulative container throughput of the eight major hub ports in the first November returned to the same period last year.
According to railway data, from January to November this year, China-Europe trains operated 11,215 trains with 1.024 million TEUs, an increase of 50% and 56% respectively.
China-Europe express trains continue to operate at a high level. They have maintained double-digit growth for nine consecutive months since March. Since May, they have operated more than 1,000 trains in a single month for seven consecutive months.
Some commentators believe that the continuous high-level operation of the China-Europe Express Train has strongly supported the resumption of work and production of enterprises across the country, opened up the major channel of the New Silk Road, reduced the impact of the epidemic on the global industrial chain, and also highlighted the “Belt and Road” initiative. The necessity of the initiative has injected strong impetus into accelerating the recovery of the world economy.
This year's government work report proposes to promote a higher level of opening to the outside world and stabilize the basic situation of foreign trade and foreign investment.
Li Xingqian, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular briefing held by the State Council Information Office in November that the State Council has conducted five special studies on stabilizing foreign trade and has issued a series of extraordinary and phased policies and measures. It's unprecedented.
With the joint efforts of all localities and departments, the policy of stabilizing foreign trade has achieved remarkable results: stabilized the main body of foreign trade, stabilized market confidence, stabilized the supply chain of the foreign trade industry chain, stabilized the international market share, and stabilized the basic foreign investment. plate.
Observing the economic data for 2020, in the "troika" driving economic growth, foreign trade imports and exports ushered in a turning point in June.
In June, my country's exports increased by 4.3%, imports increased by 6.2%, and the growth rate of imports and exports achieved the first time in the year that both "turned positive".
Millions of new energy vehicles ran out of consumption acceleration
According to data provided by the Ministry of Commerce, the production and sales of new cars in November were 2.847 million and 2.77 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.7% and 12.6%. Sales volume achieved double-digit growth for seven consecutive months.
New energy vehicle sales in November were 200,000 units, an increase of 104.9% year-on-year; cumulative sales from January to November were 1.109 million units, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year, turning negative for the first time.
Consumption has become an important engine for China's economic development.
In 2019, the contribution rate of consumption to my country's economic growth was 57.8%, which has been the number one driving force for economic growth for six consecutive years.
To promote the steady growth of consumption, we must try to stabilize the big head of automobile consumption.
Xin Guobin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, previously stated at a regular briefing held by the State Council Information Office that new energy vehicles are the main direction for the transformation and upgrading and green development of the global automotive industry, and are also a strategic choice for the high-quality development of my country's automotive industry.
New energy vehicle sales achieved cumulative positive growth for the first time during the year, which is one of the epitome of consumption upgrades.
New types of consumption featuring online and offline integration continue to emerge, and the accelerated development in the prevention and control of the epidemic is also in line with the trend of consumption upgrades.
Since the beginning of this year, the epidemic has given birth to a large number of new consumer formats and models, promoting online consumption from food, clothing, and use of physical consumption, and accelerating the expansion and penetration of more services such as medical care, education, entertainment, tourism, sports, and fitness.
"Cloud View Exhibition", "Cloud Fitness", "Cloud Consultation"... Together they enrich people's consumption on the "cloud".
Gao Gao, Deputy Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission, said frankly at a regular briefing held by the State Information Office that this year we can successfully respond to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and realize that the economic growth rate has turned from negative to positive in the second quarter. The vigorous development of new types of consumption supported by new formats and new models is inseparable.
Observing the economic data for 2020, in the “troika” that drives economic growth, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the third quarter achieved a “positive” quarter-to-year growth rate for the first time in the third quarter, and showed a sustained recovery trend.
Wang Bin, head of the Department of Market Operation and Consumption Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce, said that towards the end of the year, the consumer market will continue to pick up and accelerate the recovery trend. It is initially expected that the total retail sales of consumer goods will further rebound in 2021, which is expected to achieve faster recovery growth.
Du Xin