The speed of economic recovery in various regions is directly related to the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control
China's economy out of the "V"-shaped recovery curve
Our newspaper, Beijing, December 30 (China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily reporter Zhang Junbin) Today, Liu Shangxi, Secretary of the Party Committee and Dean of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, released a research report in Beijing.
The report describes the operation of China's economy under the epidemic: In 2020, China's economic operation will go out of a "V"-shaped recovery curve, and the work and production and business will be resumed in an orderly manner, but the economic development space is significantly different.
From October to November 2020, the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences went to various regions to conduct special surveys focusing on "corporate costs and local fiscal and economic operations", and sorted out financial data and related interviews in Zhejiang, Hainan, Sichuan and other provinces and cities.
Liu Shangxi said that on the whole, the economies of various regions are recovering steadily, and the rebound of the epidemic in some regions cannot stop the overall economic recovery.
Data shows that in 2020, my country’s economy will decline first and then rise. The GDP growth rates in the first three quarters were -6.8%, 3.2%, and 4.9%, respectively. At the end of the second quarter, a clear “V”-shaped economic recovery trend has formed. The quarterly cumulative increase was 0.7% year-on-year.
As of the end of the third quarter, only five provincial-level administrative regions in the country were still experiencing negative GDP growth.
In 2020, the speed of economic recovery in various regions is directly related to the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control.
The western region was less affected by the epidemic and was the first to achieve positive growth.
At the end of the second quarter, among the 16 regions that were the first to achieve positive growth in the country, 10 were in the western provinces.
In the first three quarters, Tibet, Guizhou, Gansu, and Yunnan ranked among the top four in the country’s GDP growth rate; among them, the southwest region is the development highland, Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guangxi’s GDP growth rates are all above 2%, while the northwest region shows a certain degree of growth. Due to the repeated epidemics in some provinces (Xinjiang and Qinghai), the growth rate in the third quarter has slowed down compared with the second quarter. Gansu and Ningxia have recovered better, but Inner Mongolia has not yet turned positive (-1.9%).
The eastern coastal areas and the Pearl River Delta region have strong economic resilience, which has accelerated the release of strong momentum.
With imports and exports better than expected in the third quarter, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other major manufacturing provinces and export-oriented economic provinces have a solid foundation and strong horsepower, which effectively boosted the economic growth of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the Greater Bay Area.
A concern is that the recovery on the consumer side is still lagging behind the production side.
As of the end of November 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods across the country is still negative. Although the rate of decline has narrowed, consumption has obviously not returned to the pre-epidemic level.
The research team found that new consumption is the main driving force of consumption recovery, and all regions have benefited more or less from the development of new consumption.
For example, in the first three quarters, the retail sales of online commodities above designated size in Anhui increased by 28.7% year-on-year, and the income from meals realized through the Internet increased by 60.3% year-on-year; the retail sales of commodities above designated size in Guizhou through public networks increased by 84.6%; and units above designated size in Chongqing Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 44.6% year-on-year.
Liu Shangxi said that the epidemic has become a catalyst for the adjustment of industrial structure and the conversion of old and new kinetic energy, and the growth of new kinetic energy against the trend has offset some of the negative effects of the epidemic to a certain extent.
From January to November 2020, my country's software and information technology service industry continued to recover, with business revenue increasing by 12.5% year-on-year.
According to the retail sales breakdown data in November, mandatory consumer goods were basically stable, with a slight decline in growth rate, such as cereals, oils and foodstuffs (7.7%), daily necessities (8.1%); optional consumer goods that represented the direction of consumption upgrades maintained high growth. Such as automobiles (11.8%), cosmetics (32.3%), etc., have a significant pull on overall consumption.
At present, China's digital economy has basically formed three centers in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Bohai Rim, and five hot spots in the Sichuan Basin, Central China Plain, Southeastern Fujian, Guanzhong Plain, and Shandong Peninsula. The foundation for good regional industrial development is the soil that nurtures digital economy. , And the digital economy in turn has improved the anti-risk ability of the industrial chain under the epidemic.
“Digital technology can better overcome the spatial barrier caused by the epidemic and directly promote economic efficiency. Therefore, the digital economy contributes to the restoration of the industrial chain and supply chain, and effectively smooths the regional economic cycle.” Liu Shangxi said, from reality In terms of development, the digital economy hotspots and economic recovery hotspots have basically realized the overlap in distribution.
Liu Shangxi reminded that at present, the foundation of economic recovery is not yet solid, and some deep-seated contradictions have become more prominent. The distribution of public risks under the epidemic is spatially different, and the means of local fiscal hedging against public risks are also spatially different.
Under the new dual-cycle development pattern, the inter-provincial industrial structure, business environment, balance of supply and demand, and the spatial difference of talent flow still exist, and the issue of local fiscal sustainability is worthy of attention.
As the economy gets on track in the future, necessary fiscal policy adjustments will be required.
The research team suggested that the government should establish a smooth exit mechanism for epidemic prevention and control policies to reduce the risk of excessive policy exit.
At the same time, adopt proactive fiscal policies to fully stimulate the internal vitality of micro-market entities, combine tax and fee reduction policies with social security system and tax system reforms, and maintain a certain expenditure intensity on the premise of optimizing the expenditure structure.
In addition, it is also extremely important to take multiple measures to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments.
Source: China Youth Daily