Financial Observation: next year's economic growth will return to normal, domestic demand as the "engine"
Xinhua News Agency, Shanghai, December 22 (Shanghai Securities News reporter Liang Min) 2021 is a year of special importance in the process of my country's modernization-the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan", a new journey to comprehensively build a socialist modern country.
What will be the economic trend this year?
Where are the growth drivers?
Is China's economy still the world's "outstanding"?
Return to growth "normal" track
The countdown to the end of 2020 has entered the Chinese economy. In an "extraordinary year", the Chinese economy has handed in answers that have attracted the attention of the world: taking the lead in controlling the epidemic, resuming work and production, and taking the lead in realizing economic growth from negative to positive.
The just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference wrote the conclusion: my country has become the only major economy in the world that has achieved positive economic growth, and the three major battles have achieved decisive achievements.
National think tanks and analysis institutions have predicted that China's economic growth will return to normal operation next year.
"This year's economy has withstood the pressure of the epidemic, fully demonstrating the strong resilience and potential of China's economy." Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that China's super-large domestic market contains huge demand, and next year's economic growth is expected to exceed 8%.
Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities, believes that China's economic growth will reach 8.9% next year, which may be one of the major economies with the highest growth rate in the world.
International organizations have recently raised their expectations for China's economic growth next year.
The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the OECD have forecasts of 8.2%, 6.9%, and 6.8% of China’s GDP growth next year, respectively, indicating that the world has full confidence in China’s economic growth.
Economic growth is mainly driven by domestic demand
What will economic growth depend on next year?
Domestic demand!
From accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with domestic and international dual cycles as the mainstay and mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles, to insisting on the strategy of expanding domestic demand, and to "demand-side management", a series of recent central arrangements have released strong signals.
In recent years, consumption has been the main driving force for economic growth.
However, affected by the epidemic, the contribution of final consumer spending to economic growth in the first three quarters of this year was a negative pull.
As the consumer market continues to recover, this situation will soon change.
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications, analyzed: "Offline consumption such as catering will become the main force for consumption recovery, which will stimulate the overall consumption growth rate next year to significantly rebound to about 13%. It is expected that the contribution of consumption to economic growth will rise to more than 60%."
"Personal consumption and manufacturing investment will be the main engine of China's economic growth next year." Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, predicts that the actual growth rate of personal consumption will jump from -1% this year to next year. 12% of GDP is expected to drive 6.7 percentage points of GDP growth.
Global manufacturing investment has been severely hit by the epidemic this year, and China's manufacturing industry has not been spared.
At present, the year-on-year growth rates of real estate investment and infrastructure investment have both changed from negative to positive, but manufacturing investment is still experiencing negative growth.
In Tang Jianwei's view, improved demand, faster production, and improved profits will all promote a substantial rebound in manufacturing investment.
After two consecutive years of low growth, the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to rise to about 13.5% next year.
Inject strong impetus into the recovery of the global economy
The steady recovery of the Chinese economy has added a touch of color to the global economy this year, and the continued recovery of the Chinese economy will inject a strong impetus into the global economy next year.
Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China successfully contained the epidemic and took the lead in resuming growth in the face of negative global economic growth. This not only provided motivation and support for the global economic recovery, but also accelerated the recovery of the domestic consumer market. It provides a solid foundation for realizing growth, leading and driving international consumption.
Zhu Jianfang said that next year, China is expected to continue to play its role as the “engine” of the global economic recovery. During the epidemic prevention and control period, the contribution of China's economic growth to the world even exceeded the 2008 global financial crisis.
The OECD pointed out in the latest Global Economic Outlook report that the global economy will grow by 4.2% in 2021, and China will contribute more than one-third of global economic growth.