Han Wenxiu's interpretation of the policy highlights of the 2020 Central Economic Work Conference

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, December 19 -

Question: macroeconomic policy to grasp the degree of efficiency when building a new development pattern good to see a new atmosphere - Han Wenxiu Interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference 2020 Aspect policy

　　Xinhua News Agency reporters Dai Xiaohe and An Bei

　　Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Office of the Central Committee of Finance and Economics in charge of daily work, said on the 19th that the current epidemic prevention and control in my country is becoming normal, and economic operations are becoming normal.

Next year's macro policies must maintain continuity, stability, and sustainability, grasp the timeliness, and avoid sharp turns to prevent "policy cliffs."

　　Han Wenxiu explained the policy highlights of the 2020 Central Economic Work Conference at the "2020-2021 China Economic Annual Conference" hosted by the China International Economic Exchange Center that day.

　　Han Wenxiu said that in 2021, the domestic and international economic situation will face new changes, and the world economy is expected to show restorative growth, but the recovery is unstable and uneven.

The foundation for my country's economic recovery is not yet solid, and the task of doing a good job in the “six stability” and “six guarantees” and preventing and resolving risks remains arduous.

　　He said that next year's macroeconomic policies should maintain continuity, stability, and sustainability, and that macroeconomic policies should gradually return to normal when the economy resumes normal operation.

This can be understood and grasped by combining three backgrounds.

　　The first is the macroeconomic operation situation.

Since the base number has dropped sharply this year, the economic growth rate next year may be relatively high in terms of numbers. This is mainly a digital phenomenon caused by the base effect.

The International Monetary Fund predicts that my country's economy will grow by 8.2% next year, the World Bank predicts a growth of 7.9%, and the OECD predicts a growth of 8%.

Judging from the average of this year and next, my country’s economic growth rate is expected to be around 5%. It may not be easy for the numbers to look good, and economic development still faces more internal and external uncertainties.

　　The second is the actual situation of micro-subjects.

The macro data next year may look better, but the micro level may not be so glamorous.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises have experienced the impact of the epidemic. It can be said that they have recovered from a serious illness and need continuous policy support to restore their vitality. Some enterprises are also worried that the policy withdrawal is too fast to bear.

　　The third is room for future policy.

After the implementation of the social security payment policy this year, the pressure on the revenue and expenditure of the social security fund has also increased significantly. Now the basic pension insurance fund of most provinces has a current revenue and expenditure gap.

At the same time, financial support for the real economy has taken some major measures this year, and the macro leverage ratio has risen by more than 20 percentage points.

These measures are necessary, but sustainability must be considered.

　　Han Wenxiu said that under the above-mentioned background, macroeconomic policies must grasp the timeliness and effectiveness.

　　-Maintaining policy continuity and stability means continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintaining the necessary policy support for economic recovery, avoiding sharp turns, and preventing the emergence of a "policy cliff."

　　——Maintaining the sustainability of policies means taking into account the gradual return to normal operation of the economy, and the need to withdraw from some temporary relief policies. This is the internal part of improving the cross-cycle design and adjustment of macroeconomic control, achieving stable growth and preventing risks in a long-term balance. Claim.

　　—— Pay more attention to the scientific, precise and effective implementation of macroeconomic policies, which means that those who should advance must be advanced, those that should retreat, and those that should be stable must be stabilized. The coordination, connection and balance of various policies should be coordinated, connected and balanced, and the time gap should be well established to avoid policy withdrawal. Additive effect.

Next year, we will comprehensively consider the changes in indicators such as macro and micro, year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, quarterly and throughout the year, domestic and international, and make flexible decisions based on actual conditions, leaving policy reserves and back-hands.

　　"It should be noted that due to technological effects, next year's economic growth rate may be high and low, and the slope will be relatively steep." Han Wenxiu emphasized that from the situation of this year and next year, this level of growth is consistent with my country's potential growth capacity at this stage. Roughly equivalent.

　　"The pressure to stabilize growth next year will not be as great as in previous years. This creates a rare window of time. We must make good use of this window to deepen supply-side structural reforms, and focus on promoting reforms and innovations to lay a solid foundation for high-quality economic development. "Han Wenxiu said.

　　The Central Economic Work Conference called for a good first step to build a new development pattern next year and see the new outlook.

Han Wenxiu said that next year's economic work will focus on building a new development pattern.

　　“Building a new development pattern requires not only strategically establishing a good situation, but also a good strategy in key areas.” Han Wenxiu said that on the basis of comprehensive deployment, the Central Economic Work Conference focused on taking key measures to take small steps to expand, and to take advantage of points. At some key points, the force is effective, and it has the effect of pulling the whole body.

　　The Central Economic Work Conference clarified eight key tasks to be done next year.

Han Wenxiu emphasized that next year's work in all aspects of economic and social development must be implemented, implemented, detailed, and comprehensively advanced in accordance with the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference.