(Economic Observation) What new changes will appear in the Chinese economy in 2021?
China News Service, Beijing, December 19th, title: What new changes will appear in the Chinese economy in 2021?
China News Agency reporter Li Xiaoyu
After the Central Economic Work Conference sets the macro policy, what new changes will appear in the Chinese economy in 2021?
At the National Forum held by China News Service on the 19th, experts and scholars at the meeting believed that as the epidemic is brought under control, there will be little uncertainty in China’s economy from an internal perspective next year. It will enhance the independent controllability of the industrial supply chain and expand domestic demand. It has become the focus of China in promoting high-quality economic development and maintaining economic security.
The impact of the epidemic has significantly weakened
The epidemic has caused considerable short-term impact on China's economy this year, with gross domestic product (GDP) experiencing a negative growth in the first quarter.
However, China's economy is now accelerating its recovery, and it is likely to become the only major economy in the world that can grow positively in 2020.
Zhou Jingtong, a senior economist at the Bank of China Research Institute, said that the impact of the epidemic on China's economy next year will be significantly weakened. The economic growth rate in the first half of the year may rise to a relatively high level in recent years, and the growth rate in some quarters may reach more than 8% or even 10%.
"From an internal point of view, the uncertainty facing China's economy next year is very small."
Jia Kang, dean of the China New Supply Economics Research Institute, also said that China’s economic performance next year is “very clear”.
Talking about the policy trend, Zhou Jingtong believes that considering that the Central Economic Work Conference has clearly stated that the macro policy should maintain continuity, stability, and sustainability, the policy operation should be more precise and effective, and there should be no quick turn. It is expected that China will continue to implement it next year. The policies related to the “six stability” and “six guarantees” have enabled economic growth to continue to approach potential levels.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that with the gradual recovery of the economy, China's fiscal deficit rate may fall next year, monetary policy will continue to return to normalization, and the macro leverage ratio will remain stable.
Concentrate on the "stuck neck" problem
In the context of the continuing epidemic and the significant increase in external risks and uncertainties, among the eight key tasks listed by the Central Economic Work Conference for next year, "strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological strength" and "enhancing the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain supply chain" are ranked respectively First and second, this is the first time in recent years.
Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that this means that China's investment in technological innovation may reach an unprecedented high level in the future. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area may invest 3 trillion yuan in innovation in the next ten years (RMB, The same below) to 4 trillion yuan, the Yangtze River Delta may increase to 7 trillion to 8 trillion yuan.
With such an intense investment scale, China's innovation will shift from an increase in quantity to an improvement in quality, and the momentum of economic growth will also shift from "sweat-driven" to innovation-driven.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that next year China will implement the industrial infrastructure reengineering project and lay a solid foundation for basic parts, basic technology, and key basic materials.
Zhang Yansheng said that this deployment conforms to the current trend of global industrial chains and supply chains becoming more resilient and resilient due to the digital revolution, and will give the economy a new look.
Expand consumption through institutional arrangements
The Central Economic Work Conference continued to put the expansion of consumption in an important position.
According to the official, it is necessary to adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand.
The formation of a strong domestic market is an important support for building a new development pattern, and effective institutional arrangements must be made in terms of rationally guiding consumption, savings, and investment.
According to Zhao Ping, deputy dean of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade Research Institute, demand-side management under the new development pattern will be one of the new changes in China’s economic work next year, and further expansion of consumption and increasing the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth is the topic. It should be.
In the future, institutional arrangements and related measures should be adopted to eliminate all kinds of "pseudo-demand" and "needed" in the consumer field, and make consumer demand more real, rational, and reasonable, so that supply can target effective demand and continuously improve quality and level. .
Regarding how to further promote consumption, Zhao Ping said that in the future, consumption potential should be tapped in depth, especially to uphold fair competition and innovation.
In terms of consumption content, there is still much room for growth in the consumption of innovative products, green products and services in the future; in terms of channels, there is still more room for improvement in the consumption potential of online channels.
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