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The last rearing up is nowhere near enough.
It is true that consumers stormed the city centers in numerous regions across the country on Monday and Tuesday, and thus immediately before the hard lockdown in Germany.
This is shown by the real-time data from Hystreet, a company that specializes in measuring customer traffic.
The Christmas business for stationary retailers is still lost, according to the German Retail Association (HDE).
“The otherwise high-turnover phase at the end of the year will be a fiasco for many retailers,” says HDE Managing Director Stefan Genth.
The HDE is therefore cutting its previous forecast for the Christmas business, which for some retailers can make up between 25 and 40 percent of annual sales.
98 instead of the previously predicted 104 billion euros will flow into the coffers of so-called non-food retailers in November and December.
The plus in e-commerce cannot compensate for the losses in city centers
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The development is very different: the over-the-counter stores, for example, lose 14 percent of their Christmas sales revenue, while online retailing increases by almost a third to 20 billion euros.
However, this jump in Internet orders cannot outweigh the losses in the city centers.
The same applies to the year as a whole.
There, the trade, which is now repeatedly affected by the lockdown, is losing around 20 percent of its annual turnover compared to the previous year, the HDE speaks of 36 billion euros.
“The industry can no longer survive this without tailor-made assistance.
In the fashion trade in particular, many companies are on the verge of bankruptcy, ”warns Genth.
"Very serious setback for stationary retail"
The renewed lockdown due to the increasing corona numbers will again lead to significant losses for the German economy.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, assesses the possible consequences in an interview with WELT.
Source: WELT / Dietmar Deffner
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In fact, the situation in the fashion and shoe trade is particularly tense.
This is shown by the weekly trend surveys by the HDE.
In the clothing sector, for example, sales have been between 34 and 43 percent week after week since the beginning of November, and shoes are 21 to 47 percent.
Now the goods are piling up: According to calculations by the textile (BTE), shoes (BDSE) and leather goods (BLE) trade associations, around 300 million unsold fashion items will accumulate in stores and warehouses at the time of the previously announced lockdown end on January 10th next year of the affected dealers.
"For many companies in our industry, this will be a stroke of fate from which they can hardly or even not recover," reports BTE General Manager Rolf Pangels and calls for immediate financial and bridging aid on the one hand and separate support for them on the other Excess goods.
The situation looks much better in online retail
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The federal government has already signaled its readiness.
"Improved depreciation on inventory does not help the industry, as it requires profits," warns Pangels.
The situation in online retail is different.
According to calculations by the HDE, there is an annual increase of more than 20 percent.
And this migration of customers is likely to be permanent to a large extent.
At least that is shown by a survey by the Initiative for Commercial Diversity on behalf of “Das Telefonbuch”, which WELT is exclusively available to.
According to this, 56 percent of the 1,000 consumers surveyed stated that they were increasingly shopping online as a result of Corona.
And these consumers apparently have such good experiences that they want to make more use of this shopping option in the future.
At least 37 percent of those surveyed state that they have now discovered the advantages of online shopping for themselves.
Source: WORLD infographic
Michael Wolf is now expecting massive changes in the inner cities.
Many companies have invested massively to ensure compliance with hygiene and distance rules, says the patron of the initiative for commercial diversity.
The lockdown is now punishing the local traders who adhere to the hygiene rules.
"This will have serious consequences for the long-term development of local business diversity and local supply in German city centers."
Consumers are also preoccupied with the topic.
94 percent are worried about the diversity of dealers in their region, the survey shows.
76 percent already assume that inner cities will become less attractive.
Older people in particular, who are often less mobile, now fear that the distances to local supplies will be longer.
Especially since 41 percent of those surveyed are already noticing the first vacancies.
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The emotional connection of consumers differs from business to business.
The greatest fears of shop closings concentrate on restaurants, bars and clubs, followed by shops and stores, which, according to the survey, each consider around one in two to be particularly at risk.
This is followed by hairdressers, drug stores and cosmetic studios.
Far more women than men are concerned about these forms of trade.
On the other hand, the fear of closing craft businesses is more pronounced among men.
Source: WORLD infographic
In total, the German trade association currently sees around 50,000 stores with 250,000 employees at risk.
The HDE appreciates that the federal government has announced aid.
General manager Genth warns that the planned measures are not a perfect fit, especially from January.
"The aids provided so far are important, but many details still have to be adapted to actual needs and then paid out quickly and unbureaucratically."
What is needed is rapid acute help that is accessible to every industry
Genth receives support from the Mittelstandsverbund ZGV, the umbrella organization of around 310 associations in Germany such as Intersport, Expert Vedes or Quick Schuh.
Chief Executive Ludwig Veltmann acknowledges the “good intentions” of politics.
"However, it is to be feared that they will by no means cover the needs in practice, that they will also be redistributed bureaucratically and that the urgently needed aid will therefore be a long time coming due to the lack of efficient distribution channels."
What is needed, however, is fast, unbureaucratic, realistic acute help that is accessible to every industry in the form of compensation for lost income.
Companies and the self-employed are to prepare a profit forecast for 2020 and then compare the results with the average earnings of the past three financial years.
"Aid funds can then be applied for as a subsidy up to the amount of the deviation," explains Veltmann.
If it then turns out in the 2020 tax return that the decline in earnings is less warm, the much-paid subsidy must be repaid - plus interest.
The actual amount can then be included in the regular taxation.
The ZGV has also written that to politics.
More than hesitant answers from politicians, according to which the “valuable proposals” should be examined, have not yet been received.
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