Economic operation data released in the first 11 months, a number of indicators rose to the best this year
The recovery of the national economy continues to show up
On December 15, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in November.
From the data point of view, China's economy continues to recover, and investment, consumption, and foreign trade continue to show a positive trend.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to accelerate compared with the third quarter. The Chinese economy is expected to become the only economy that achieves positive growth among the world's major economies.
Currently, there are still many uncertainties in the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the external environment. How can my country continue to consolidate and expand the economic recovery achievements?
How to continue to implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and create new competitive advantages?
The reporter interviewed relevant experts and scholars.
The national economy maintains a recovery trend, and the "six stability" and "six guarantees" policy systems continue to exert supportive effects
Economic data in November showed that the national economy continued to recover.
The main indicators climbed upwards-
Observing the "troika", we can see that from January to November, national fixed asset investment increased by 2.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from January to October.
Among them, private investment increased by 0.2%, the growth rate turned positive for the first time this year, and investment vigor was further enhanced.
In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.31% month-on-month; it increased by 5.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the trend of consumption structure upgrading was obvious.
The total value of imports and exports of goods was 3,091.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.
The import and export of private enterprises accounted for 46.4% of the total import and export, an increase of 4 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, and the trade structure continued to improve.
Continuous improvement of employment and people's livelihood——
From January to November, 10.99 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, completing 122.1% of the annual target.
In November, the surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns nationwide was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from October, and it has fallen for four consecutive months. The employment situation is generally stable.
In November, the national consumer price (CPI) fell by 0.5% year-on-year, the first year-on-year decline in 11 years, causing concern.
In this regard, Fu Linghui analyzed that the decline in CPI was mainly caused by the decline in food prices, and the main reason for the decline in food prices was the significant drop in pork prices, which had risen suddenly since last year.
Excluding energy and food prices, the core CPI rose by 0.5%, which has been in a relatively stable range for several consecutive months.
"In the future, prices will remain stable and there are many favorable conditions, including the recovery of the consumer end, a bumper harvest of grain, and the continuous implementation of price-guaranteed and stable supply measures in various regions, and prices will continue to remain at a reasonable level." Fu Linghui said.
The market is expected to continue to improve——
In November, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 52.1%, 56.4%, and 55.7%, respectively, which were 0.7, 0.2, and 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month. The three major indexes were all located in The high point during the year was above the critical point for 9 consecutive months.
The ever-increasing positive indicators have exceeded the expected economic performance. Behind this is a series of policies focusing on "six stability", "six guarantees" and bailing out enterprises, and have achieved positive results.
A recent survey by the China Association of Small and Medium Enterprises showed that due to the simultaneous improvement of supply and demand and the continuous implementation of the relief policy for enterprises, the benefits of small and medium-sized enterprises have improved slightly.
The Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) in November was 87.1, an increase of 0.1 point from the previous month. It has rebounded or remained flat for five consecutive months and has risen to the highest point since February this year.
From January to October, the national industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 5012.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive for the first time this year.
In November, industrial production maintained a relatively rapid growth. The added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 7.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than in October.
"Our country has the most complete modern industrial system in the world. This is the foundation for long-term stable economic development." said Huang Qunhui, researcher and director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
From January to October, the operating income of service industry enterprises above designated size increased by 0.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive for the first time this year.
In November, the service industry further recovered, and the business activity index of the service industry was in a relatively high range. The national service industry production index increased by 8.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from October.
"Deepening the market-oriented reform of the service industry is not only the focus of releasing the huge potential of domestic demand, but also the key to releasing the advantages of service trade to win new advantages in international cooperation and competition." Chi Fulin, director of the China (Hainan) Institute of Reform and Development, told reporters.
Imports and exports are stable and improving, and the trade structure continues to improve
The accumulated intentional turnover was US$72.62 billion, an increase of 2.1% over the previous session. This is the transcript of the third China International Import Expo that closed last month.
"In the next five years, we will invest 451 million euros in China." Boehringer Ingelheim, a multinational pharmaceutical company that participated in the CIIE for the first time, said that it will expand its existing production bases and increase its innovative strategic layout in China.
Behind the big order is a big opportunity.
In the first 11 months of this year, my country’s total import and export of goods was 29.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year.
In November, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 3,091.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.
"China's foreign trade has sufficient resilience, great potential, strong corporate innovation capabilities, and the long-term positive development trend has not changed. We are fully confident of achieving the annual foreign trade development goal." said Ren Hongbin, Assistant Minister of Commerce.
While the total amount has grown, the trade structure has also been continuously improved.
From January to November, the export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.4% year-on-year, accounting for 59.3% of the total export value, playing a leading role in exports.
General trade imports and exports accounted for 59.9% of total imports and exports, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the same period last year.
"The import and export situation has continued to improve, and the stability of my country's production and supply has played an important role." Fu Linghui believes that with the resumption of domestic work and production, the economic operation is gradually improving, and the steady increase in production is an important support point for China to face changes in external demand. .
Under the impact of the epidemic, some foreign supplies have been affected. Due to the stable supply, China has effectively made up for some blockages and breakpoints in the global supply chain.
In addition, a series of policies issued by the state to stabilize foreign trade have promoted the facilitation of foreign trade, promoted the development of new formats and models of foreign trade, and also contributed to the stability of foreign trade.
Liu Dian, an assistant researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China, believes that the basic foreign trade market can remain stable and play an important role in supporting the steady recovery of my country's economy in a situation where the global production supply chain is blocked and the downward pressure on the international economy is increasing.
Regarding the import and export situation in the next stage, Fu Linghui said, "The basic conditions for China's import and export situation to remain stable in the future are in place, but we must also note that under the influence of the epidemic, external instability and uncertainty are still relatively high. Many, we need to continue to work hard to stabilize foreign trade."
"The domestic cycle must be closely nested with the international cycle, mutual promotion, and coordinated operation, in order to achieve a virtuous cycle of development of my country's economy." Liu Dian pointed out that stable import and export can improve my country's commodity demand system and factor demand system, and stimulate high quality Domestic demand has played a strong support for opening up the domestic cycle, which is conducive to the formation of a domestic and international dual cycle pattern.
Actively expand domestic demand and give play to the fundamental role of consumption
At 20:0:2 on December 11, JD.com launched the country's first e-commerce platform for digital RMB consumption.
From 20 o'clock on December 11 to 20 o'clock on 12th, Jingdong Mall has nearly 20,000 orders paid in digital RMB, of which the largest single online payment amount exceeds 10,000 yuan.
Just one month ago, the major e-commerce platforms’ double eleven transaction volume set a new record. Among them, Tmall achieved a transaction volume of 498.2 billion yuan and Jingdong achieved a sales volume of 271.5 billion yuan.
China's economy has entered a new stage of development, and to build a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles mutually promoting each other, it is necessary to establish a complete domestic demand system, actively expand domestic demand, and give play to the fundamental role of consumption.
"Domestic demand to drive economic growth is the center of my country's new development pattern." Wang Yuesheng, a professor at the School of Economics of Peking University, told reporters that with the deep integration of online and offline, digital tools such as cards, coupons, and live broadcasts will stimulate consumption. This year's "Double Eleven" "Double 12" sales achieved breakthrough growth, reflecting the huge domestic consumption potential and market potential, and vividly showing that China's economic development has great potential and sufficient resilience.
In November, sales in the domestic market continued to pick up, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 3951.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%.
Among them, the retail sales of goods was 3,453.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8%, a positive growth for five consecutive months, and the sales of consumer upgraded goods increased rapidly.
From January to November, the national online retail sales reached 10,537.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from January to October.
"The growth rate of market sales accelerated in November, and the retail structure of goods continued to be optimized; new consumption patterns grew rapidly, and the growth rate of retail sales of online shopping related goods increased significantly." Zhang Min, a statistician from the Department of Trade and Foreign Economic Affairs of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets consumer goods retail in November Point out when total data.
The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee recently proposed that the supply-side structural reforms should be reversed and demand-side reforms should be emphasized at the same time.
In this regard, Fu Linghui said that demand-side reform is an inherent requirement to promote the construction of a large domestic economic cycle. Promoting demand-side reform is also conducive to releasing consumption potential. Only by twisting supply-side structural reforms, while promoting demand-side reforms, we can get through Production, distribution, circulation, and consumption can form demand-driven supply, create a high-level dynamic balance between demand and supply, and promote the formation of a new development pattern.
Entering a new stage of development, the development of consumption is gradually increasing the driving force of the economy. The trend of consumption scale expansion and consumption structure upgrading is very obvious, but there is still a lot of room for improvement in consumption level and quality.
"In recent years, we have seen a good momentum for the development of new types of consumption, but there are still many obstacles and difficulties in expanding new types of consumption, which need to be resolved through reforms." Fu Linghui said, expanding and improving residents' consumption capacity and improving consumption There are still many constraints in these aspects of the environment, which need to be resolved through reforms.
Macro-control is more prudent to achieve a long-term balance of stable growth and risk prevention
In the first three quarters of this year, new tax cuts and fee reductions nationwide totaled 2,092.4 billion yuan.
"Judging from the implementation of tax and fee reductions this year, the goal of reducing the burden of enterprises by more than 2.5 trillion yuan for the whole year can be expected to be completed." Cai Zili, director of the Revenue Planning and Accounting Department of the State Administration of Taxation, said, tax reduction and fee reduction The effect of the policy has been shown, and it has effectively promoted the continuous decline in the burden of market entities, the enhancement of the vitality of market entities, and the enhancement of business efficiency.
"As the economy recovers steadily, macroeconomic control should be more prudent. For example, fiscal policy should pay more attention to practical results, and monetary policy should maintain a reasonable growth in money supply and social financing. This is actually conducive to achieving a long-term balance of stable growth and risk prevention. "Said Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China.
Many experts said that in the next stage, we will continue to consolidate the positive trend of economic and social recovery, and further increase policy support for key areas and weak links, especially for small, medium and micro enterprises, manufacturing industries, and those affected by the epidemic. Service industry.
Strengthen structural policy support, promote the accelerated recovery of domestic demand, and at the same time prevent various internal and external risks, and create a safe and stable development environment for the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan".
Gao Ruidong, managing director and chief macro economist of Everbright Securities, believes that in the face of increasingly severe external conditions, a series of free trade arrangements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) will effectively improve China’s economic resilience and ability to resist risks. Enhance the level of integration between China and ASEAN and regional partners, and serve China to build a new development pattern.
On the other hand, the current domestic effective demand is still insufficient, the recovery of manufacturing investment and household consumption is relatively weak, and the foundation for continued economic improvement needs to be further consolidated.
"Our country's performance in the prevention and control of the war epidemic and economic recovery has fully confirmed the forward-looking, strategic and correctness of'implementing new development concepts and building a new development pattern.' If you follow this path, you will surely be able to make a difference. A higher quality, more efficient, fairer, more sustainable, and safer development path will make China's demonstration and China's contribution to the recovery and development of the global economy." said Wu Kangping, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University.
(Reporter Yang Wenjia)