In a note published Friday, the French Observatory of Economic Conditions forecasts a rebound in activity next year, but insufficient to erase the consequences of the health crisis.

And partial unemployment could still cost the state 10 billion euros in 2021. 

The gradual improvement in the economic situation next year will unfortunately not be enough to erase the shock generated by the coronavirus health crisis.

This is what the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures (OFCE) estimates in a note published on Friday, notably forecasting a sharp rise in unemployment. 

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At the end of next year, the French economy will still be 1.4 points below the level it was before the virus burst.

The alleviation of health constraints and the measures of the recovery plan will certainly allow the activity to rebound strongly in 2021 (+ 7.1%) but not to the point of canceling the historic plunge of this year, which the OFCE sees a worsening compared to its previous forecasts given the effects of the second confinement. 

Short-time working could cost the state 10 billion euros in 2021 

Economic activity will decline by 9.5% this year, according to the OFCE.

Next year, some sectors should do well, such as construction.

But those who have suffered greatly will continue to suffer: the aeronautics industry, the automobile industry, the hotel and catering industry ... Some 180,000 jobs will be destroyed due to company bankruptcies.

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The OFCE also sees the unemployment rate rising sharply.

It is expected to reach 10.6% of the workforce by the end of next year.

So to avoid such an explosion on employment, the government will be required to extend partial activity, the bill of which would reach 10 billion euros next year.