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In October 2017, more than three years ago, I warned that legal and economic security must be created quickly through a contractually regulated Brexit and an extensive partnership agreement in order to avert damage to Great Britain and the EU.

Now, more than three years later, we are obviously still a long way from that.

Guest author Hinrich Mählmann accuses Prime Minister Boris Johnson of naivety

Source: pa / obs / GDA - General Association of A / GDA - General Association of Aluminum

The withdrawal agreement was signed by both sides on January 24th of this year.

The exit on February 1, 2020 was completed, and a transition period was agreed until the end of the year, which both sides wanted to use to reach a trade agreement.

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The Internal Market Bill recently passed by the Johnson administration through the House of Commons violates the Northern Ireland protocol to the Brexit treaty.

It would give London the opportunity to overturn the stipulated rule according to which the EU customs rules should continue to apply in Northern Ireland.

The regulation was intended to avoid border controls between Northern Ireland and the EU member Ireland.

Johnson openly admits this breach of contract, but considers it necessary to preserve the integrity of the British internal market.

When the Brexit agreement was signed, he agreed to the regulation.

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The House of Lords has rejected the UK's Single Market Act because it rightly sees it as a threat to peace in Northern Ireland and damage to the country's international reputation.

So there is a stalemate between the two houses of parliament.

The EU has already started infringement proceedings.

The transitional agreement will expire in a few weeks, and an agreement on a trade agreement seems almost impossible due to the disagreement on key issues.

An extension is ruled out by Prime Minister Boris Johnson - regardless of whether the EU would agree to it.

No-deal Brexit would have high follow-up costs

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Johnson goes on to say that the UK could live well without a trade deal with the EU.

That is a gross misjudgment.

A no-deal Brexit means that the third-country regulations will take effect on both sides with serious economic consequences for everyone.

For example, according to a study by the British automotive association SMMT, the European automotive industry alone is threatened with costs of around 110 billion euros.

The UK is by no means prepared for the worst-case scenario.

More than four million trucks and millions more cars and buses travel between Dover and Calais and through the Eurotunnel every year.

Any lengthening of the clearance would lead to massive backlogs on both sides of the canal.

Value chains threaten to be massively disrupted, if not even collapse.

It seems comparatively helpless if chaos is to be prevented by setting up additional parking spaces and a few additional customs clearance points.

The customs issue is only part of the problems with a no-deal scenario.

Until the end of the transition period, all EU legislation will continue to apply and the UK will continue to be treated as a Member State.

After that, there is a risk of massive negative consequences for contracts, standards, approvals and so on without corresponding successor agreements.

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Negotiations between the EU and Great Britain are currently ongoing.

But time is running out.

If Johnson doesn't give in at the last minute and deviates from his populist-naive course, everything will boil down to No Deal.

Just two sensible options

According to the Brexit Transitional Act, the transition period could have been extended to a maximum of the end of 2022 if both parties had agreed to this by mid-2020 at the latest.

The Johnson administration deliberately let this deadline pass.

From my point of view, however, there are only two sensible options when engaging in a bit of common sense and what is at stake.

Either a last-minute agreement or an extension of the transition period.

No Deal is not an option!

This comment appears in cooperation with the Family Business Foundation.

More texts on www.familienunternehmen.de.